舰船成本预测系统中的自变量约简方法

针对舰船成本预测系统中自变量众多且相互关系错综复杂的特点,提出了用模糊粗糙集方法对舰船成本预测系统中的自变量进行约简。在模糊粗糙集方法的框架下,给出了模糊不可分辨关系和相对约简的定义,构建了基于模糊粗糙集的舰船成本预测系统自变量约简模型,并且针对实际的舰船成本预测系统一般是混合数据系统的问题,对广义差别矩阵的定义进行了改进,设计了相应的启发式约简算法。实例分析结果表明:文中所提的方法不仅能使约简的自变量大为减少,而且约简的效果较传统方法更好,且计算过程也更简单。     

基于概率风险的系统安全性分析

为得到系统层次上的安全性概率风险,获得定量的安全性决策依据,设计了基于概率风险的系统安全性分析方法,该方法将系统按某种标准划分成相应子系统,统计得到各子系统所有的危险源,建立相应的因果链,通过一定法则得到基于系统层次的概率风险,同时还讨论了设计方法中概率风险计算的难点问题。     

Deterministic and stochastic scheduling with teamwork tasks

We study a class of new scheduling problems which involve types of teamwork tasks. Each teamwork task consists of several components, and requires a team of processors to complete, with each team member to process a particular component of the task. Once the processor completes its work on the task, it will be available immediately to work on the next task regardless of whether the other components of the last task have been completed or not. Thus, the processors in a team neither have to start, nor have to finish, at the same time as they process a task. A task is completed only when all of its components have been processed. The problem is to find an optimal schedule to process all tasks, under a given objective measure. We consider both deterministic and stochastic models. For the deterministic model, we find that the optimal schedule exhibits the pattern that all processors must adopt the same sequence to process the tasks, even under a general objective function GC = F(f₁(C₁), f₂(C₂), … , f_n(C_n)), where f_i(C_i) is a general, nondecreasing function of the completion time C_i of task i. We show that the optimal sequence to minimize the maximum cost MC = max f_i(C_i) can be derived by a simple rule if there exists an order f₁(t) ≤ … ≤ f_n(t) for all t between the functions {f_i(t)}. We further show that the optimal sequence to minimize the total cost TC = ∑ f_i(C_i) can be constructed by a dynamic programming algorithm. For the stochastic model, we study three optimization criteria: (A) almost sure minimization; (B) stochastic ordering; and (C) expected cost minimization. For criterion (A), we show that the results for the corresponding deterministic model can be easily generalized. However, stochastic problems with criteria (B) and (C) become quite difficult. Conditions under which the optimal solutions can be found for these two criteria are derived. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Modeling and analysis of vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through narrow waterways

In this paper, we present a physics-based stochastic model to investigate vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through a narrow waterway. A state-space model is developed to represent the waterway and the location of vessels at a given time. We first determine the distribution of surface current at a given location of the waterway depending on channel geometry, bottom topography, boundary conditions, and the distribution of wind. Then we determine the distribution of the angular drift for a given vessel travelling at a given location of a waterway. Finally, we incorporate the drift probabilities and random arrival of vessels into a Markov chain model. By analyzing the time-dependent and the steady-state probabilities of the Markov chain, we obtain risk measures such as the probability of casualty at a given location and also the expected number of casualties for a given number of vessels arriving per unit time. Analysis of the Markovian model also yields an analytical result that shows that the expected number of casualties is proportional to square of the tanker arrival rate. We present our methodology on an experimental model of a hypothetical narrow waterway. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Reseach Logistics 46: 871–892, 1999     

基于故障树的系统安全风险实时监测方法

当前的安全性分析方法大都属于预先安全性分析方法,即在系统使用前对系统进行安全性分析。但系统的动态特性,如组成部件工作状态的动态变化,使系统的安全性呈现实时变化。为研究系统的实时安全风险,提出了一种基于故障树的实时安全风险监测方法。该方法用故障树表示系统结构,建立系统安全风险评估模型,根据系统的技术状态参数与系统组件工作状态的对应关系,实时对系统的安全风险进行监测;并根据安全风险监测的情况,对安全风险变化原因做出解释,做到防患于未然。用一个具有前馈控制冷却系统的例子演示了该方法的有效性。     

格拉管线风险评估方法研究

分析了油气管道风险评估技术在国内外的研究和应用情况,针对格拉管线的技术性能和铺设环境现状,认为处于冻土带和地震高烈度带的管线具有较大的风险,并提出了相应的评估方法。对于穿越冻土管道,提出了定性法和有限元法的两级评估体系;对于穿越地震区的管段,分别从一般场地管道、穿越河流管道、跨越河流管道、穿越断层管道等四部分介绍了评估方法。相应的技术和方法可以用来指导管线的风险评估,以保证其安全、可靠运行。     

舰载装备系统效费权衡分析

借助于趋势分析法进行效费权衡 ,分析了装备系统效能和费用随性能指标变化的发展趋势 ,确定了性能指标的变化对效能与费用的影响大小 ,进而可为装备的研制发展提供有价值的权衡依据 .     

武器系统研制进度风险分析方法研究

首先对大型武器系统研制进度风险分析的一般特点进行了讨论 ,然后根据工期要求紧迫项目的特点 ,利用瑞利分布对进度风险分析的方法进行了研究 ,并结合实例对某系统研制进度风险进行了定量分析     

大空间建筑防火设计应注意的问题

大空间建筑是近年发展起来的新兴建筑。本文分析了大空间建筑的火灾危险性 ,并就其防火设计提出了对策。     

On Growing Operating Costs in the Armed Forces

Operating costs per unit of input or output are often claimed to grow faster in defence than elsewhere in the economy. In this paper, we outline several possible reasons as to why operating costs increase at higher rates in defence, including differences in the input factor mix and productivity growth, the technological complexity required to maintain the relative effect of weapon systems and a gradual reduction in the number of units and activity. We investigate whether operating costs grow at a faster rate than elsewhere in the economy, by estimating growth in real output unit costs in the Norwegian Armed Forces for the period 1994–2013, using activity as a measure of output. We find no increase beyond general inflation in structural (fixed) costs, whereas activity-based (variable) costs per unit of activity increase significantly.