Cost allocation of capacity investment games

Consider a manufacturer serving a set of retail stores each of which faces deterministic demands in a finite planning horizon. At the beginning of the planning horizon, the production capacity of the manufacturer is built, followed by production, outsourcing to third party manufacturers if necessary and distribution to the retail stores. Because the retail stores are usually managed by different managers who act as independent profit centers, it is desirable that the total cost is divided among the retail stores so that their incentives can be appropriately captured and thus efficient operations can be achieved. Under various conditions, we prove that there is a fair allocation of costs among the retail stores in the sense that no subset of retail stores subsidizes others, or equivalently, the resulting capacity investment game has a nonempty core, that is, the capacity investment game is a balanced game. In addition, our proof provides a mechanism to compute a fair cost allocation. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 512–523, 2013     

On optimal system designs in reliability‐economics frameworks

Reliability Economics is a field that can be defined as the collection of all problems in which there is tension between the performance of systems of interest and their cost. Given such a problem, the aim is to resolve the tension through an optimization process that identifies the system which maximizes some appropriate criterion function (e.g. expected lifetime per unit cost). In this paper, we focus on coherent systems of n independent and identically distributed (iid) components and mixtures thereof, and characterize both a system's performance and cost as functions of the system's signature vector (Samaniego, IEEE Trans Reliabil (1985) 69–72). For a given family of criterion functions, a variety of optimality results are obtained for systems of arbitrary order n. Approximations are developed and justified when the underlying component distribution is unknown. Assuming the availability of an auxiliary sample of N component failure times, the asymptotic theory of L‐estimators is adapted for the purpose of establishing the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators of the expected ordered failure times of the n components of the systems under study. These results lead to the identification of ε‐optimal systems relative to the chosen criterion function. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

风险偏好的区间值灰色模糊综合评判及其应用

由于被评判对象有时会带有某些不确定性以及信息量的多少及充分程度不同,使得这些对象在某些评判指标上属于某个评语的程度-隶属度及其对应的灰度不再是一个确定的数,常常是一个范围,针对此特点,尝试用区间值来表示灰度.引入一种反映风险偏好的风险指标,以此对评判结果灰度进行处理,定义了信息充分程度转化公式,利用其将评判结果转化为区间值集合,在此基础上建立了风险偏好的区间值灰色模糊综合评判的数学模型,并给出了它在方案优选中的应用.实例结果表明,这种方法是合理的、可行的、有效的.     

火灾风险分析中若干术语辨析

在性能化防火设计方法文献中,出现了不少容易混淆的有关火灾风险分析的重要术语,如果不能正确理解这些术语的内涵,将妨碍我们的学习与借鉴。为此,对危险和风险,火灾危险和火灾风险,火灾风险分析与火灾风险评估,风险估计、评价和识别,感知风险和可接受风险,后果、易损性和严重度,火灾风险决策等重要术语进行了辨析。     

纺织涂层行业消防安全现状及对策研究

纺织涂层工艺是纺织行业深加工不可缺少的组成部分,纺织涂层行业在带来经济效益的同时,也带来了诸多安全生产隐患。简要介绍了纺织涂层技术,分析了纺织涂层行业的火灾危险性,从完善安全技术法规、完善安全管理体系、建立安全管理机构、严格审批等方面提出了相应的消防安全对策和建议。     

现代灭火救援行动中安全隐患探析

以现代灭火救援行动中存在的安全隐患为切入口,归纳出爆燃、危险品、烟雾、高温、井坑池、电流和建筑物坍塌等七种主要威胁灭火人员安全的危险隐患,详细解析了这七种危险源形成原因和危害特点,并针对灭火救援行动,提出了相应的防范措施。     

闸刀开关过载火灾危险性研究

通过实验研究了不同类型的闸刀开关在不同过负荷电流条件下的温度上升情况,测量了闸刀开关在两类过负荷条件下的最高温度以及达到最高温度需要的时间,并对影响闸刀开关温度升高的因素以及达到最高温度时能否引燃周围可燃物进行了分析讨论。实验结果显示,闸刀开关在Ⅱ类过负荷条件下的火灾危险性远大于在Ⅰ类过负荷条件下的火灾危险性。在同类过负荷电流条件下,闸刀开关的额定电流越大,过负荷倍数越大,火灾危险性也越大。     

空客喷漆车间火灾危险性分析

从喷漆大厅火灾爆炸危险源、全部气化的危险性两个方面分析了空客A320飞机喷漆车间的火灾爆炸危险性,并对喷漆车间爆炸危险区域进行了划分,提出了在飞机喷漆车间设计中应采取的安全措施。     

基于险度函数的装备供应链库存风险损失度量

目前,对供应链库存风险损失的定量研究比较少,而定量研究中鲜有对风险偏好变化问题的研究,因此首先分析了各种风险度量方法,通过比较采用了险度函数作为对装备供应链风险损失的度量方法;然后,结合装备供应链实际,提出了定常风险偏好特性险度函数和可变风险偏好特性险度函数的适用范围,以及装备供应链库存风险损失度量的损失水平值,并给出了装备供应链库存风险损失度量函数;最后,通过算例进行了验证.实验结果表明:行为人的不同风险偏好特性会对同一事态产生不同的预判,进而可能影响对风险的决策,这是符合客观现实的.     

基于数值模拟的弹药地面库整库燃爆冲击波毁伤风险评估

弹药燃爆事故是我军后方仓库安全管理工作防护的重点,对弹药燃爆事故危害度进行评估,是武器装备安全风险评估体系的重要组成部分.选取地面库整库弹药燃爆事故为研究对象,应用AUTODYN计算程序,建立了弹药地面库的三维空间有限元仿真模型,并对弹药地面库整库爆炸的冲击波传播过程进行了数值模拟,得到了在冲击波不同毁伤等级下人员、建筑物的毁伤区域,为燃爆事故危害度风险评估提供了数据支持.