基于SEM的装甲车辆驾驶作业疲劳主要影响因素识别研究

在对装甲车辆驾驶作业疲劳影响因素调查研究的基础上,利用AMOS5.0建立了装甲车辆驾驶作业疲劳影响因素结构方程模型,并检验了其合理性,对作业疲劳主要影响因素进行了识别和分析,分析结果可为改善装甲车辆驾驶作业环境、科学训练、驾驶员选拔以及降低作业疲劳程度的研究提供借鉴和参考。     

对数正态分布的维修时间均值检验方法

针对许多装备维修时间服从或近似服从对数正态分布,从对数方差已知或未知两种角度,在控制单方或双方风险的基础上,提出了维修时间均值的检验方法,并通过实例验证了检验方法的实用性。     

装备采购委托代理关系分析

针对目前采用的委托方对代理方的激励与约束机制设计,利用博弈论方法分析了监督策略成本会引起最优解迁移,并以实例予以了说明.同时,给出了军事经济效能观测指标的选择原则和多行动代理方的激励机制设计原则.     

公安现役部队审计风险成因及防范

公安现役部队审计事业近年来取得很大发展,在维护部队的财经纪律、惩治腐败、加强党的廉政建设和提高经费物资的使用效益等方面发挥了重要作用。基于审计风险的客观存在,为推进和完善部队审计事业建设,提高审计人员的风险意识,笔者分析了公安现役部队的审计风险成因并提出了防范措施。     

A dynamic allocation heuristic for centralized safety stock

An inventory system that consists of a depot (central warehouse) and retailers (regional warehouses) is considered. The system is replenished regularly on a fixed cycle by an outside supplier. Most of the stock is direct shipped to the retailer locations but some stock is sent to the central warehouse. At the beginning of any one of the periods during the cycle, the central stock can then be completely allocated out to the retailers. In this paper we propose a heuristic method to dynamically (as retailer inventory levels change with time) determine the appropriate period in which to do the allocation. As the optimal method is not tractable, the heuristic's performance is compared against two other approaches. One presets the allocation period, while the other provides a lower bound on the expected shortages of the optimal solution, obtained by assuming that we know ahead of time all of the demands, period by period, in the cycle. The results from extensive simulation experiments show that the dynamic heuristic significantly outperforms the “preset” approach and its performance is reasonably close to the lower bound. Moreover, the logic of the heuristic is appealing and the calculations, associated with using it, are easy to carry out. Sensitivities to various system parameters (such as the safety factor, coefficient of variation of demand, number of regional warehouses, external lead time, and the cycle length) are presented. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Network routing for insurgency: An adversarial risk analysis framework

Problems in counterterrorism and corporate competition have prompted research that attempts to combine statistical risk analysis with game theory in ways that support practical decision making. This article applies these methods of adversarial risk analysis to the problem of selecting a route through a network in which an opponent chooses vertices for ambush. The motivating application is convoy routing across a road network when there may be improvised explosive devices and imperfect intelligence about their locations. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

武器系统概率指标的贝叶斯决策评定方法

剖析了武器系统试验工程领域中常用二项分布经典假设检验方法存在的问题,从贝叶斯决策思想和理论出发提出了概率指标评定的新方法,通过实例对比证明了贝叶斯决策评定方法有效解决了二项分布经典假设检验方法中存在的问题。     

修正的交互加速度补偿机动目标跟踪算法

为了提高交互加速度补偿算法(IAC)的滤波精度,通过引入一个改进因子自适应地调整过程噪声协方差,给出了一种新的算法.在给定的初始条件下,通过蒙特卡罗仿真,将修正的IAC算法与IAC算法进行比较,结果表明修正的交互加速度补偿算法在目标发生机动时具有更好的跟踪性能.     

西藏文物古建筑消防安全探讨

根据西藏文物古建筑历年来典型火灾事故原因和火灾危险源分布,针对消防安全管理工作,提出了加强火灾危险源管理和控制的措施、手段。     

医用制氧机系统消防设计探讨

介绍了目前大中型医院广泛采用的医用制氧机系统供氧原理和特性,分析了其火灾危险性,并与液氧储罐供氧系统进行了对比,提出了消防设计的具体要求。