Return policy: Hassle‐free or your money‐back guarantee?

This article compares the profitability of two pervasively adopted return policies—money‐back guarantee and hassle‐free policies. In our model, a seller sells to consumers with heterogeneous valuations and hassle costs. Products are subject to quality risk, and product misfit can only be observed post‐purchase. While the hassle‐free policy is cost advantageous from the seller's viewpoint, a money‐back guarantee allows the seller to fine‐tune the consumer hassle on returning the product. Thus, when the two return policies lead to the same consumer behaviors, the hassle‐free policy dominates. Conversely, a money‐back guarantee can be more profitable even if on average, high‐valuation consumers experience a lower hassle cost than the low‐valuation ones. The optimal hassle cost can be higher when product quality gets improved; thus, it is not necessarily a perfect proxy or signal of the seller's quality. We further allow the seller to adopt a mixture of these policies, and identify the concrete operating regimes within which these return policies are optimal among more flexible policies. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 403–417, 2014     

On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

We investigate whether differences in terrorism risk are mirrored on terrorism risk perception across European countries for the period 2003–2007. We find that the average propensity for terrorism risk concern is affected by actual risk levels. Country and individual heterogeneity contribute substantially to the variation of observed risk perception. Singles and individuals with white collar jobs are less likely to mention terrorism as one of the most pressing issues their country faces, while political positioning towards the right makes it more likely to be concerned about terrorism. As far as competing risks are concerned, we find that the likelihood terrorism is mentioned, decreases with spending on pensions as a percentage of GDP being higher. Finally, based on the Bayesian framework, we also examined the formation of terrorism risk perceptions, and decompose the observed country-level time series of terrorism activity into a long- and a short-run component. We concluded that the observed risk perception variation is only explained by the long-term trend of terrorism activity countries face.     

NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH

The funding of international nuclear risk mitigation is ad hoc, voluntary, and unpredictable, offering no transparent explanation of who is financially responsible for the task or why. Among many non-nuclear-armed states, this exacerbates a sense of injustice surrounding what they see as a discriminatory nuclear regime. The resulting erosion of the regime's legitimacy undermines support for efforts to prevent nuclear weapons dissemination and terrorism. This article proposes a transparent, equitable “nuclear-user-pays” system as a logical means of reversing this trend. This system envisions states contributing financially to international efforts to mitigate nuclear risks at a level relative to the degree of nuclear risks created by each state. “National nuclear risk factors” would be calculated by tabulating the risks associated with each state's civilian and military nuclear activities, as well as advanced dual-use and nuclear-capable missile activities, multiplying the severity of each risk by the probability of it occurring, and combining these results. A nuclear-user-pays model would create financial incentives for national and corporate nuclear risk mitigation, boost legitimacy and support for nuclear control efforts among non-nuclear-armed states, assist in preventing nuclear weapons dissemination and terrorism, and advance nuclear disarmament by helping progressively devalue nuclear weapons.     

基于非负矩阵分解的电磁超声系统优化研究

针对孤立脉冲群电磁超声系统信号特征容易被噪声淹没的问题,提出基于改进的非负矩阵分解（INMF）优选特征的支持向量机（SVM）方法．首先,用3种不同的方法提取高维特征;其次,用NMF方法实现特征降维,并保证降维结果的唯一性,避免对特征的直接选择;最后,应用支持向量机方法对降维特征进行分类．对孤立脉冲群电磁超声系统采集的4种信号特征进行提取、选择和分类,实验结果表明：INMF方法能有效提取微弱信号的特征,减少运算量,提高电磁超声系统特征采集的准确率．     

基于依赖矩阵的Web服务组合故障诊断

为了保证指挥信息系统在动态环境下能够提供持续可靠的组合服务,提出一种利用依赖矩阵对Web服务组合故障原因进行诊断的模型,对依赖矩阵的建立进行了详细说明。然后,基于构造的依赖矩阵,提出改进的贪心算法对失效情况进行探测,并设计了基于二分查找的故障定位算法。实验模拟表明,提出的模型能够利用少量探测就能监测整个服务组合流程的运行情况,并定位找到错误源。     

模糊综合评判的装备研制风险评估

装备研制风险评估是在风险分析的基础上对所研究阶段的风险性进行评估,计算该阶段的风险得分,最终确定其风险等级,对结果进行比较分析,为下一步工作的开展确定方向,具有重要的指导意义.对装备研制的风险管理进行了研究.针对装备研制项目阶段特点,从风险管理工作的现实需求出发,以风险管理的基本理论为基础,结合其他领域已有的风险管理模型,建立了装备研制风险管理的针对性模型,并结合事例对装备研制风险管理模型的具体应用进行了说明.     

高新装备复合式预防性保修风险模型

结合高新装备保修需求,引入复合式预防性保修策略,以"定期更换周期内辅以功能检测"这种典型复合维修工作为例,从安全性影响的角度分析了装备的故障发生情况,并建立了其故障风险数学模型。在此基础上,通过算例给出了所建模型的应用方法,研究了该策略下决策变量对故障风险的影响,并分析了模型的通用性。     

自由飘浮空间机器人准刚性分解运动轨迹控制与仿真

研究轨道空间机器人操作时,基座处于自由飘浮状态的手爪准刚性运动直角坐标轨迹的分解运动控制,重点分析了广义雅可比矩阵的计算,并进行了空间单手３—ＤＯＦ的仿真,该方法可相应推广到开链多手。     

NICALON SiC/Al 预制丝热膨胀特性研究

本文研究了NICALON SiC束丝纤维增强铝预制丝在15～400℃温度区间内的热膨胀特性。研究表明预制丝两次热循环后得到的膨胀曲线不一致,该曲线在15～400℃范围的平均热膨胀系数分别为3.2×10~(-6)℃~(-1)、4.1×10~(-6)℃~(-1)。本文对预制丝的热膨胀行为进行了理论分析和探讨,计算值和实验值较为符合。     

空气中正方形排列的大声阻抗柱体阵列的声波禁带

采用平面波展开法,分析了一类声阻抗较大的圆柱体正方形周期排列在空气中形成的二维声子晶体声波禁带。数值计算结果表明,在柱体声阻抗远大于基体的条件下,声波禁带与柱体材料及其是否空心无关,而与柱体半径和晶格常数有关。