对数正态分布的维修时间均值检验方法

针对许多装备维修时间服从或近似服从对数正态分布,从对数方差已知或未知两种角度,在控制单方或双方风险的基础上,提出了维修时间均值的检验方法,并通过实例验证了检验方法的实用性。     

装备采购委托代理关系分析

针对目前采用的委托方对代理方的激励与约束机制设计,利用博弈论方法分析了监督策略成本会引起最优解迁移,并以实例予以了说明.同时,给出了军事经济效能观测指标的选择原则和多行动代理方的激励机制设计原则.     

基于尺度选择性的空间数据源选择与预取策略

合理高效的数据源选择策略是提高空间信息检索系统效率的重要因素之一。针对以往研究中对空间尺度语义关注程度的不足,提出一种结合空间尺度语义选择检索数据源的方法。该方法综合考虑人眼视觉特性,计算出参与分布式查询计划生成的数据源集合,过滤在尺度意义上对最终查询结果无影响的数据源,并通过将数据源的简化表达进行预取,进一步减少了查询的整体执行代价。实验结果表明,提出的方法在大尺度查询和小尺度查询时均具有良好的性能。     

公安现役部队审计风险成因及防范

公安现役部队审计事业近年来取得很大发展,在维护部队的财经纪律、惩治腐败、加强党的廉政建设和提高经费物资的使用效益等方面发挥了重要作用。基于审计风险的客观存在,为推进和完善部队审计事业建设,提高审计人员的风险意识,笔者分析了公安现役部队的审计风险成因并提出了防范措施。     

A dynamic allocation heuristic for centralized safety stock

An inventory system that consists of a depot (central warehouse) and retailers (regional warehouses) is considered. The system is replenished regularly on a fixed cycle by an outside supplier. Most of the stock is direct shipped to the retailer locations but some stock is sent to the central warehouse. At the beginning of any one of the periods during the cycle, the central stock can then be completely allocated out to the retailers. In this paper we propose a heuristic method to dynamically (as retailer inventory levels change with time) determine the appropriate period in which to do the allocation. As the optimal method is not tractable, the heuristic's performance is compared against two other approaches. One presets the allocation period, while the other provides a lower bound on the expected shortages of the optimal solution, obtained by assuming that we know ahead of time all of the demands, period by period, in the cycle. The results from extensive simulation experiments show that the dynamic heuristic significantly outperforms the “preset” approach and its performance is reasonably close to the lower bound. Moreover, the logic of the heuristic is appealing and the calculations, associated with using it, are easy to carry out. Sensitivities to various system parameters (such as the safety factor, coefficient of variation of demand, number of regional warehouses, external lead time, and the cycle length) are presented. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Network routing for insurgency: An adversarial risk analysis framework

Problems in counterterrorism and corporate competition have prompted research that attempts to combine statistical risk analysis with game theory in ways that support practical decision making. This article applies these methods of adversarial risk analysis to the problem of selecting a route through a network in which an opponent chooses vertices for ambush. The motivating application is convoy routing across a road network when there may be improvised explosive devices and imperfect intelligence about their locations. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

武器系统概率指标的贝叶斯决策评定方法

剖析了武器系统试验工程领域中常用二项分布经典假设检验方法存在的问题,从贝叶斯决策思想和理论出发提出了概率指标评定的新方法,通过实例对比证明了贝叶斯决策评定方法有效解决了二项分布经典假设检验方法中存在的问题。     

西藏文物古建筑消防安全探讨

根据西藏文物古建筑历年来典型火灾事故原因和火灾危险源分布,针对消防安全管理工作,提出了加强火灾危险源管理和控制的措施、手段。     

医用制氧机系统消防设计探讨

介绍了目前大中型医院广泛采用的医用制氧机系统供氧原理和特性,分析了其火灾危险性,并与液氧储罐供氧系统进行了对比,提出了消防设计的具体要求。     

战时交通运输路径优化研究

以战时交通运输路径优化问题为研究对象,分析问题特点,考虑多式联运,以运输时间代价、运输费用代价、路段和运输节点的危险性代价为优化目标,建立起广义运输代价最小的运输路径优化模型,并设计了蚁群算法来求解问题模型。给出的算例表明,文中模型符合战时交通运输的特点和实际需要,可为确定战时运输路径提供决策支持,而采用的蚁群算法是求解该问题的一种有效方法。