地下停车库火灾风险分析

分析了地下停车库的火灾特点,并从停车库的火灾规模、发生轰燃的烟气条件、释放辐射热的大小、相邻汽车被引燃的临界条件和自动喷水系统的动作时间等几方面对停车库潜在的火灾危险性进行了探讨。以某地下一层停车库为例,对其火灾风险进行了具体评价。     

基于火灾风险分析的消防力量优化布局

分析了我国目前消防力量布局存在的问题,从当前有限消防经费和现有的城市布局出发,提出了依据风险来优化消防力量布局的观点和方法,以最大限度的提高消防部队的灭火和抢险救援能力。     

基于层次分析法的化工企业火灾风险评估研究

化工企业火灾风险评估对于化工生产至关重要。针对化工行业的火灾风险,结合层次分析法和模糊识别模式的优点,提出了基于层次分析—模糊识别的综合评价方法,并通过实例评估证明了这种评价方法行之有效。     

The impact of component commonality on composite assembly policies

Assemble in Advance (AIA) policy reduces assembly cost due to advance planning, while Assemble to Order (ATO) policy eliminates assembly of excessive (more than demanded) units. The tradeoffs between the two policies have been studied in the past for single product environments. Moreover, it was shown that it is beneficial to employ AIA and ATO simultaneously. In this article, we study the employment of such a composite assembly policy in a multiproduct environment with component commonality. When common components are used, ATO may also enable us to benefit from the risk pooling effect. We provide important managerial insights such as: the multiperiod problem is myopic and changes in inventory levels due to the use of common components, and demonstrate the potential profit increase compared to other policies.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Locating a target from directional data

Statistical estimation plays an important role in locating a target in space, a task that has important applications in many areas. However, theoretical measures on the quality of various estimators reported in the literature have been difficult to obtain because of mathematical complications. As a result, choice of estimator in practice has been largely arbitrary. In this paper, we present a systematic study on major target estimators reported in the literature. Focus is on comparisons between the traditional angle method, the line method, and a recently developed line-to-point transformation method. Insights gained from the study directly lead to the development of a novel two-stage angle method that not only produces highly accurate target estimation among all known estimators but is also computationally efficient. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 353–364, 1998     

Constant risk aversion in stochastic contests with exponential completion times

This article analyzes a class of stochastic contests among multiple players under risk‐averse exponential utility. In these contests, players compete over the completion of a task by simultaneously deciding on their investment, which determines how fast they complete the task. The completion time of the task for each player is assumed to be an exponentially distributed random variable with rate linear in the player's investment and the completion times of different players are assumed to be stochastically independent. The player that completes the task first earns a prize whereas the remaining players earn nothing. The article establishes a one‐to‐one correspondence between the Nash equilibrium of this contest with respect to risk‐averse exponential utilities and the nonnegative solution of a nonlinear equation. Using the properties of the latter, it proves the existence and the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, and provides an efficient method to compute it. It exploits the resulting representation of the equilibrium investments to determine the effects of risk aversion and the differences between the outcome of the Nash equilibrium and that of a centralized version.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:4–14, 2019     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

基于旁支式次级源的舰船液压管路低频脉动有源衰减

舰船液压系统的低频脉动伴随流体沿管路传递,产生结构振动的线谱。针对难以通过被动式衰减的低频脉动,设计旁支式次级源,进行有源衰减的研究。所设计的旁支式次级源采用压电陶瓷驱动,结构紧凑且增加了放大结构,从而提高了响应特性。搭建液压管路的有源控制系统,采用FxLMS自适应算法,进行多线谱脉动的控制实验。实验结果表明,旁支式次级源能够对多线谱低频脉动进行有效衰减,减小随流体传递的振动能量,且对原液压系统工作性能无影响。     

运动流体介质和剪切层共同作用下平面近场声全息技术改进

传统的平面近场声全息将全息面置于射流内部。为了降低窗效应和卷绕误差对重建精度的不利影响,一般要求全息面尺寸为声源的2倍以上,而较大尺寸的传声器阵列放在射流内部会干扰射流的稳定。针对这一问题,提出将整个全息面置于射流外部的方法。根据经典的剪切层修正理论,首先分析声波由声源传播至全息面过程中路径和幅值的改变,继而推导出修正后的声场传播公式,最终建立起马赫数小于0.3的运动流体介质和剪切层共同作用下的平面近场声全息理论模型。数值仿真表明,改进后的平面近场声全息技术能够得到高分辨率的重建声场,对气动噪声源的定位精度较高,并且具备一定的抗干扰能力。