不确定失效阈值影响下考虑设备剩余寿命预测信息的最优替换策略

为了进一步提升设备维修决策的科学性,通过建立综合设备剩余寿命预测数据与不确定失效阈值的最优维修决策模型,实现了不可维修设备的最优替换策略.构建基于非线性Wiener过程的设备性能退化模型,并采用极大似然法估计退化模型参数;提出一种基于期望最大(Expectation Maximization,EM)算法的不确定失效阈值...     

基于黑板模型的空袭目标识别专家系统

在对空袭目标信息进行综合利用的基础上,建立了基于黑板模型的多传感器空袭目标识别融合专家系统模型,模拟专家识别思维.给出了知识库的构造方法和知识的表示方法;推理机的设计结合了问题求解的黑板模型和D-S证据推理方法.该模型对目标的综合应用识别具有很好的借鉴作用,测试表明该系统具有很强的推理能力,融合模型有较高的识别准确性和可靠性.     

陆基常规导弹武器系统射击效率评估

现行的陆基常规导弹武器射击效率的算法原理滞后于导弹作战实际需要.针对毁伤律问题、积累毁伤效应问题、相关性问题、目标毁伤的模糊性问题进行了探讨,指出应用当代新的数学理论方法改造现行陆基常规导弹射击效率算法理论的必要性和迫切性.     

用户偏好提取MDP建模研究

将马尔可夫判决过程和智能强化学习算法相结合,给出了异构无线网络环境下用户业务偏好评估模型的技术框架。为动态环境下用户需求的感知、量化和适配特征的研究提供了基本的数学描述,对解决用户体验的评价问题和业务与业务环境的适配问题提供了新的研究思路。仿真结果表明所构建的MDP模型能够在多状态条件下学习用户偏好,根据用户需求智能选择业务。     

二部图的(g,f)匹配

本文证明了二部图存在(g,f)匹配和f 因子的充要条件以及有关的几个结果,并且给出了求二部图的最大(g,f)匹配、最小(g,f)匹配和最小权最大f 匹配、最小权(g,f)匹配、最大权(g,f)匹配的算法。     

Theoretical calculation and experimental study on the interaction mechanism between TKX-50 and AP

The combination of 5,5′-bistetrazole-1,1′-diolate (TKX-50) and ammonium perchlorate (AP) can make greater use of the chemical energy of TKX-50 based energetic materials. The research on the interaction mechanism between TKX-50 and AP is very important for designing TKX-50-AP compounds and judging the formation feasibility of composite particles, which can lay a theoretical foundation for the preparation of TKX-50-AP mixed crystals and the application of TKX-50 in propellant, propellant and explosive. Herein, in order to research the interaction mechanism between TKX-50 and AP, density-functional theory calculation was applied to optimize three configurations of TKX-50-AP compounds. The geometry structure, electrostatic potential and binding energy of the compounds were predicted, and the electronic density topological analysis was also carried out. Then TKX-50-AP mixed crystals structures were constructed, and the radial distribution function of H–O and H–N in mixed crystals was calculated. Finally, solvent/non-solvent method was applied to prepare TKX-50-AP composites, and the infrared spectroscopy and the non-isothermal decomposition performance of the composites were characterized. Results show that the superposition of positive charges in TKX-50 molecule and negative charges in AP makes the electrostatic potential distributions of TKX-50-AP compounds different from that of TKX-50 and AP. The interaction energies of TKX-50-AP 1, TKX-50-AP 2 and TKX-50-AP 3 are 39.743 kJ/mol, 61.206 kJ/mol and 27.702 kJ/mol, respectively. The interaction between TKX-50 molecules and AP molecules in TKX-50-AP mixed crystals both depends on hydrogen bonds and van der Waals force, and the number and strength of hydrogen bonds are significantly greater than that of van der Waals force. The composition of AP and TKX-50 makes the absorption peak of the five-membered rings and NH₃OH⁺ of TKX-50 shift to low wavenumber in the infrared spectroscopy. In general, TKX-50 interacts with AP via hydrogen bonds and van der Waals force, and the calculated results are in good agreement with the experimental results. The composition of TKX-50 and AP can also prolong the decomposition process.     

The stability of the nuclear nonproliferation norm: a critique of norm-contestation theory

This article argues that the nuclear nonproliferation norm (NNPN) is a social fact with a relatively independent life of its own and that it has a powerful impact on the behavior of both nuclear-weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS). It challenges the application of critical constructivist research on norms to the NNPN and the idea that its legitimacy and structural power depend on contestation “all the way down.” State and non-state actors play an important role in explaining the dynamics of the NNPN, but agential constructivism runs the danger of “throwing the baby out with the bath water,” neglecting the structural impact of the NNPN on state behavior. The article examines the limitations of norm-contestation theory, arguing that some norms are more resistant to contestation than others. The NNPN is more difficult to contest than new norms (such as the Responsibility to Protect) because it is rooted in fifty years of nonproliferation nuclear diplomacy. The US-India nuclear deal is not a case of “norm change” but a violation of the NNPN. The “core” of the NNPN has not changed since the US-India nuclear deal. The conflict confronting NWS and NNWS is about the implementation of “type 2” norms (organizing principles) and “type 3” norms (standardized procedures), and not about the “hard core” of the NNPN.     

Constant risk aversion in stochastic contests with exponential completion times

This article analyzes a class of stochastic contests among multiple players under risk‐averse exponential utility. In these contests, players compete over the completion of a task by simultaneously deciding on their investment, which determines how fast they complete the task. The completion time of the task for each player is assumed to be an exponentially distributed random variable with rate linear in the player's investment and the completion times of different players are assumed to be stochastically independent. The player that completes the task first earns a prize whereas the remaining players earn nothing. The article establishes a one‐to‐one correspondence between the Nash equilibrium of this contest with respect to risk‐averse exponential utilities and the nonnegative solution of a nonlinear equation. Using the properties of the latter, it proves the existence and the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, and provides an efficient method to compute it. It exploits the resulting representation of the equilibrium investments to determine the effects of risk aversion and the differences between the outcome of the Nash equilibrium and that of a centralized version.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:4–14, 2019     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

基于博弈论的C~4ISR系统监视与侦察功能模型

监视与侦察已成为现代C4ISR系统的重要组成部分,传统的监视与侦察系统效能分析方法存在模型难以建立、结果不准确等问题,很难量化其与作战效果之间的影响。在对基于Lanchester方程的C4ISR系统建模方法进行研究的基础上,提出了反映监视与侦察功能的Lanchester方程模型,并引入博弈论分析了战场上信息的不对称对交战结果的影响,克服了描述C4ISR系统的Lanchester方程没有考虑作战单元、对手和环境间的动态交互以及数学结构简单的缺点。仿真结果验证了模型的有效性。