基于MDFT框架的海上能源通道航线动态决策建模与仿真

针对常规海上航线决策没有考虑决策选择过程的问题,引入多选择决策场理论（ MDFT）,构建了海上能源通道航线动态决策模型。基于信息完备、信息不确定和特殊情况等三种情景想定,进行了海上能源通道航线规划决策及其实验仿真。结果表明,决策过程受时间压力和信息质量的制约,时间压力会制约决策质量,同时还可能引起“偏好逆转”现象,信息不确定也会导致确定性决策。该模型不仅综合考虑了海上能源通道航线选择时需关注的各类要素,且模型参数可动态调整,进而能合理模拟真实的海上状况和决策过程。     

边境安全风险分析系统的构建研究

提出了信息化背景下边境安全风险情报分析的基本概念及其内涵,论述了信息化背景下边境安全风险分析系统的架构和面向边境安全风险分析的信息组织方式。     

瞄准式战斗部瞄准策略研究

对不同的瞄准点,瞄准式战斗部对目标毁伤效果不同,为此提出了适用于瞄准式战斗部的瞄准策略,保证了对目标较高的毁伤概率和较好的毁伤效果,解决了起爆之前战斗部的定位问题。     

非相参三点源有源诱偏下ARM弹着点研究

非相参多点源诱偏技术是对抗反辐射导弹(ARM)的有效手段。以ARM目标分辨的二分组理论和双点源诱偏的仿真结果为依据,对等功率三点源诱偏的2种经典布局的ARM落点整体分布进行预测。通过对ARM落点和系统被击中概率曲线的分析及拟合处理,验证了预测的正确性及系统被击中概率与占地面积的相关性,为通信辐射源抗ARM的布设提供一定的参考。     

Return policy: Hassle‐free or your money‐back guarantee?

This article compares the profitability of two pervasively adopted return policies—money‐back guarantee and hassle‐free policies. In our model, a seller sells to consumers with heterogeneous valuations and hassle costs. Products are subject to quality risk, and product misfit can only be observed post‐purchase. While the hassle‐free policy is cost advantageous from the seller's viewpoint, a money‐back guarantee allows the seller to fine‐tune the consumer hassle on returning the product. Thus, when the two return policies lead to the same consumer behaviors, the hassle‐free policy dominates. Conversely, a money‐back guarantee can be more profitable even if on average, high‐valuation consumers experience a lower hassle cost than the low‐valuation ones. The optimal hassle cost can be higher when product quality gets improved; thus, it is not necessarily a perfect proxy or signal of the seller's quality. We further allow the seller to adopt a mixture of these policies, and identify the concrete operating regimes within which these return policies are optimal among more flexible policies. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 403–417, 2014     

基于灰色神经网络的装甲部队油料消耗预测

油料消耗量的精确预测直接影响装甲部队后勤保障能力的提升,而传统预测模型精度不高,应用范围也有一定的局限,难以满足信息化战争精确保障的需要。提出一种装甲部队油料消耗预测的组合模型,对历史油料消耗数据和油耗影响因素进行统计分析,求出各影响因素与油耗量的关联度作为权重系数;通过改进GM(1,1)模型预测某部队下一次军事行动的油耗量;用GM(1,1)模型的预测值、加权后的各影响因素值和油耗实际值训练网络,对下一次想定的军事行动油耗量进行预测。通过平均相对误差计算表明,组合预测模型比单一的GM(1,1)模型预测精度高,能够较好地指导部队进行下一步的油料供管工作。     

威布尔分布的战术导弹可靠性试验信息融合方法

针对战术导弹可靠性试验小子样问题,提出了基于威布尔分布,利用小概率原理,针对不同试验环境下试验数据的融合方法。该方法扩大了战术导弹可靠性试验的统计子样,提高了可靠性评定的可信度。     

On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

We investigate whether differences in terrorism risk are mirrored on terrorism risk perception across European countries for the period 2003–2007. We find that the average propensity for terrorism risk concern is affected by actual risk levels. Country and individual heterogeneity contribute substantially to the variation of observed risk perception. Singles and individuals with white collar jobs are less likely to mention terrorism as one of the most pressing issues their country faces, while political positioning towards the right makes it more likely to be concerned about terrorism. As far as competing risks are concerned, we find that the likelihood terrorism is mentioned, decreases with spending on pensions as a percentage of GDP being higher. Finally, based on the Bayesian framework, we also examined the formation of terrorism risk perceptions, and decompose the observed country-level time series of terrorism activity into a long- and a short-run component. We concluded that the observed risk perception variation is only explained by the long-term trend of terrorism activity countries face.     

Landau相变中的自由能

Landau用序参量的幂级数展开来表示相变温度附近的自由能,强调对称性与序参量在相变中的作用.正确书写自由能形式,可以计算可能相的温度曲线,得到关于序参量的方程,从而推知系统的结构.