成败型产品的Bayes鉴定试验方案研究

利用可靠性增长模型给出了成败型产品鉴定试验的一种Bayes方法.提出了Bayes鉴定试验的最大后验风险准则,利用这种准则制定的鉴定试验方案综合了产品研制过程中的先验信息.在确保产品质量的前提下,与传统的鉴定试验方案相比,将大大节省试验时间.     

新形势下我国对外贸易比较优势理论分析

我国入世以后,有必要重新审视对外贸易的比较优势,迎接经济全球化的冲击与挑战。本文从资源禀赋、后起者优势及制度创新三个层面对我国的对外贸易比较优势理论予以拓展,以求为我国的开放型经济建设提供一些有益的参考。     

Bending and stress analysis of polymeric composite plates reinforced with functionally graded graphene platelets based on sinusoidal shear-deformation plate theory

The bending and stress analysis of a functionally graded polymer composite plate reinforced with gra-phene platelets are studied in this paper. The governing equations are derived by using principle of virtual work for a plate which is rested on Pasternak's foundation. Sinusoidal shear deformation theory is used to describe displacementfield. Four different distribution patterns are employed in our analysis. The analytical solution is presented for a functionally graded plate to investigate the influence of important parameters. The numerical results are presented to show the deflection and stress results of the problem for four employed patterns in terms of geometric parameters such as number of layers, weight fraction and two parameters of Pasternak's foundation.     

On vibration analysis of functionally graded carbon nanotube reinforced magneto-electro-elastic plates with different electro-magnetic conditions using higher order finite element methods

This article deals with evaluating the frequency response of functionally graded carbon nanotube rein-forced magneto-electro-elastic (FG-CNTMEE) plates subjected to open and closed electro-magnetic cir-cuit conditions. In this regard finite element formulation has been derived. The plate kinematics adjudged via higher order shear deformation theory (HSDT) is considered for evaluation. The equations of motion are obtained with the help of Hamilton's principle and solved using condensation technique. It is found that the convergence and accuracy of the present FE formulation is very good to address the vibration problem of FG-CNTMEE plate. For the first time, frequency response analysis of FG-CNTMEE plates considering the effect of various circuit conditions associated with parameters such as CNT dis-tributions, volume fraction, skew angle, aspect ratio, length-to-thickness ratio and coupling fields has been carried out. The results of this article can serve as benchmark for future development and analysis of smart structures.     

基于改进核极限学习机和集成学习理论的目标机动轨迹预测

为了提高目标轨迹预测的精度以及预测模型的泛化能力,提出基于改进蝙蝠算法优化的核极限学习机(Kernel Extreme Learning Machine,KELM)和集成学习理论目标机动轨迹预测模型。构建KELM模型,并采用改进的蝙蝠算法对KELM的参数进行优化;以优化后的KELM神经网络为弱预测器,结合集成学习算法生成强预测器,通过训练不断优化强预测的结构和参数,得到一种基于集成学习理论的目标机动轨迹预测模型;基于不同规模的样本,将所得预测模型与逆传播神经网络、支持向量机和极限学习机等模型进行对比分析。仿真结果表明:所提目标机动轨迹预测模型具有较好的预测精度和泛化能力。     

基于BP神经网络的D-S证据理论及其应用

命题基本概率分配(BPA)的确定是D-S证据理论得以广泛应用的关键之一.目前,大部分确定方法受专家知识偏好影响较大,难以反映客观情况.将BP网络运用到基本概率分配的确定过程中,使得BP网络和D-S证据理论两者有机地联合应用,这样既可利用D-S证据理论来表达和处理不确定信息,又可以充分发挥BP网络的自学习、自适应和容错能力.文中建立了基于BP网络的D-S证据理论的故障诊断模型,并给出了证据的融合算法.仿真实验表明,该模型可行.     

垂直刚性面边界条件下水下爆炸气泡运动的理论研究

为研究垂直边界面对水下爆炸气泡脉动的影响,根据势流理论建立了垂直边界面条件下水下爆炸气泡运动的理论模型,编制计算程序进行求解。对水下爆炸气泡脉动运动的特点、流场的速度及压力的分布、气泡引起的载荷形式进行了分析,结果表明,此模型能够反映水下爆炸气泡和周围流体介质的运动规律,并能进行定量的计算。     

火灾风险与保险调控初探

分析了国外保险与消防之间的相互关系和合作经验,简述了我国保险和消防存在合作的相互需要,探讨了运用保险调控火灾风险的措施。     

论对火灾概念的新认识

运用逻辑方法,分析现行大体可归纳为两种观点的火灾学术定义并找出差异,结合当前火灾科学基础理论现状得出在火灾概念上存在模糊认识将对火灾科学发展有不利影响的结论,提出对火灾概念进行科学一致定义的建议。     

谈性能化设计理念在整改建筑火灾隐患中的应用

结合消防监督工作实践,针对建筑火灾隐患整改工作中存在的问题,提出“以性能化设计理念指导火灾隐患整改”的工作思路,阐述性能化设计的核心、规范体系、运行过程,对建筑火灾隐患进行社会学分析,寻找出性能化设计与建筑火灾隐患整改的结合点。其理论分析与实践证明:性能化设计理念为解决建筑火灾隐患、更好地满足建筑功能需要提供了一条新的途径,该理念的应用将促进建筑火灾隐患整改的科学化、合理化和成本效益的最优化。