Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

The continuing resonance of the war as risk management perspective for understanding military interventions

In the late 1990s and 2000s, a slew of books and journal articles proposed that a nexus between risk management and warfare was emerging. This article argues that risk management ideas continue to shape recent campaigns against Libya, Islamic State, Syria, and the war on terror from Niger, Yemen to Somalia. It uses existing literature on risk and warfare to examine four key aspects of contemporary interventions. First, the article evaluates the overall strategic context as security concerns shift from terrorism toward renewed great power competition. Second, it re-assesses the risk calculus for military action through the language and grammar of risk invoked by politicians. Third and fourth, it addresses the continuing reliance on air power and the managerial ethos of military operations as important features of war as risk management.     

在建高层建筑火灾隐患及预防对策

从在建高层建筑的建筑特点、火灾特点等方面的因素入手,结合近期发生的在建高层建筑火灾情况,分析在建高层建筑存在的火灾隐患,提出笔者对在建高层建筑火灾预防扑救的一些看法。     

消防监督工作效益论

从目前消防监督工作的投入和收益谈起,引入效益和边际效益理论,对进一步提升消防监督工作效益进行探讨分析。     

三氯氢硅的火灾危险性及消防安全对策

针对三氯氢硅存在的火灾危险性进行分析,探讨其卸载时应注意的事项,并提出有效的安全防护、泄漏处理、灭火等方面的有效措施。     

大型室内市场建筑消防设计

分析了目前大型室内市场建筑现状,总结出其防火设计的难点,提出了防火设计的基本原则,并从总平面布局、防火分区、防排烟、消防设施以及内部装修等方面提出了具体的对策。     

马克思主义中国化模式论的研究现状及述评

马克思主义中国化模式论的理论研究是学术研究的薄弱环节;它蕴含于马克思主义中国化基本经验、基本规律以及若干问题的研究之中;要深化马壳思主义中国化模式论的理论研究,拓展马克思主义中国化研究的理论视域,深入分析马克思主义中国化模式论的研究困境并积极找寻摆脱研究困境的可能性出路,无疑是十分必要的。     

马克思主义原理课教学探讨——课堂讨论在教学中的作用、实施及检验

马克思主义理论课是高校进行马克思主义理论教育,培养大学生树立科学世界观、人生观的重要内容。如何提高教学效果和教学质量是每个教师的不懈追求。在教学实践中,把教师讲述和学生讨论结合起来,突出课堂讨论在教学过程中的作用,对提高学生学习主动性、积极性及理论素养,改善教学效果具有重要意义。     

可转换债券的复合期权定价模型

可转换债券是一种内含期权结构的特殊金融产品。可转换债券的内含期权是一种奇异期权——复合期权。本文通过分别对无期权债券和复合期权的定价,获得了可转换债券在风险中性条件下的定价模型。     

基于物元贝叶斯网的舰船损伤定位

在分析了物元理论和贝叶斯网理论的基础上,提出了结合主观概率信息和客观状态信息的物元贝叶斯网模型,并给出了物元贝叶斯网在损伤定位中的推理算法.舰船损伤定位的案例分析表明,该方法可以更加全面地融合战损装备的状态信息,使损伤定位结果更为准确.