大型装备费用预测中的系统分析

将大型装备连续建造的总成本及控制变量作为一个变化系统,并用灰色系统理论进行建模分析,采用龙格-库塔法求解微分方程组.通过对精度的分析,指出使用灰色系统预测结果不能采用统计分析方法的相关性检验标准,而要通过预测数列与原始数列的逼近情况来判断其预测精度.     

析行政法的平衡论

从行政立法、行政执法、权力手段的淡化、行政救济制度的出现等方面论述了平衡论是现代行政法的精义 ,并阐明了以平衡论指导行政法的重大意义及如何正确、全面看待平衡论。     

复合材料修补金属裂损结构吸湿老化的试验与有限元分析

暴露在湿热环境中的复合材料修补金属裂损结构易吸湿老化,导致该结构性能下降,服役寿命缩短。为研究吸湿性对复合材料修补金属裂损结构修补效果和耐久性的影响,利用试验方法分析了吸湿性对复合材料胶补金属裂损结构及胶黏剂力学性能的影响;利用有限元方法评估了吸湿性对复合材料胶补金属裂损结构试验件修补效果和耐久性的影响。研究结果表明:吸湿后含穿透双边裂纹铝合金板玻璃纤维单面胶补试验件的疲劳裂纹扩展寿命和极限载荷的平均值分别下降为吸湿前的71%和90%;吸湿造成拉伸条件下复合材料胶补金属裂损结构胶层失效模式由内聚破坏为主转变为界面破坏为主;在"湿-热"老化30天后,E44/聚酰胺环氧树脂胶黏剂试验件吸水饱和,弹性模量下降为未老化前的40%,塑性应变超过了总应变的25%;有限元分析发现胶层损伤受吸湿影响明显,吸湿性加速了胶层损伤,且裂纹长度越长,加速作用越明显;同时吸湿使得裂纹尖端的J积分值急剧增大,导致修补结构的疲劳裂纹扩展寿命缩短,裂纹长度越长,吸湿性对于复合材料胶接修补效果的危害越严重。     

采用3电平非均匀量化的脉冲编码策略

作为全数字发信机系统中广泛应用的一种脉冲编码技术,Delta-Sigma调制(Delta-Sigma Modulation, DSM)通过增加量化电平,能够实现调制性能的提升。但限于全数字发信机系统开关功放的具体结构,多电平DSM序列无法直接驱动后级功放电路。在传统3电平DSM基础上,通过引入面积等效原理和非均匀量化技术,提出了适用于开关功放的一种新的脉冲编码策略。理论分析和仿真结果表明,相比常规2电平DSM序列,采用该策略获得的调制脉冲序列具有更优的带内SNR和编码效率性能。     

腐蚀损伤下船体总纵极限强度可靠性分析方法探讨

针对腐蚀损伤下船体结构安全性评估问题,基于实船腐蚀勘验数据,引入非概率可靠性评估理论,提出舰艇现时状态下船体结构总纵极限强度非概率可靠性分析方法,建立船体结构非概率可靠性分析模型。对某舰艇船体结构现时状态下的总纵极限强度可靠性及非概率可靠性分析方法在船体结构安全状态评估方面的应用性进行了分析。结果表明:非概率可靠性分析方法克服了过度依赖样本数据的缺陷,较确定性方法更贴近客观实际,在舰艇船体结构技术状态评估方面具有较好的应用前景。     

Drone usage by militant groups: exploring variation in adoption

Judging by recent media reporting and pronouncements by senior US military and security officials, the use of drones by militant groups is both reshaping conflict between armed non-state actors and state parties and now presents a grave and direct threat to nations in the West and elsewhere. But does this threat warrant the attention it is currently receiving? To answer this question, this article surveys how various militant groups have used drones both tactically on the battlefield and for wider strategic purposes. Closely examining how drones have been employed and by whom provides a basis for understanding variation in adoption. The article shows how drone usage or non-usage is highly contingent on the setting of the conflict, the aims of different groups, and the capacity of groups to adopt the technology. Though advances in drone technology could make the use-case more appealing for militant groups, drones will be subject to the same back-and-forth, techno-tactical adaptation dynamic between adversaries that have accompanied prior military innovations.     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

The continuing resonance of the war as risk management perspective for understanding military interventions

In the late 1990s and 2000s, a slew of books and journal articles proposed that a nexus between risk management and warfare was emerging. This article argues that risk management ideas continue to shape recent campaigns against Libya, Islamic State, Syria, and the war on terror from Niger, Yemen to Somalia. It uses existing literature on risk and warfare to examine four key aspects of contemporary interventions. First, the article evaluates the overall strategic context as security concerns shift from terrorism toward renewed great power competition. Second, it re-assesses the risk calculus for military action through the language and grammar of risk invoked by politicians. Third and fourth, it addresses the continuing reliance on air power and the managerial ethos of military operations as important features of war as risk management.     

全寿命理论在油料装备科学化管理中的运用

运用全寿命理论对油料装备实施科学管理,能够节约各种经费投入,有效提高油料装备的管理效能,这对新时期军队油料装备的管理与建设具有深远意义。论述了油料装备全寿命管理的内涵和管理体系,重点分析了油料装备全寿命管理信息化与全寿命期经费管理问题,探讨了全寿命理论在油料装备科学化管理中的发展趋势。     

加强装备竞争性采购廉政风险防控的思考

装备竞争性采购是统筹经济发展和国防建设的重要抓手,加强风险管理是提升装备竞争性采购总体效益的重要保障.从当前纪检态势看,装备竞争性采购是廉政风险集中的重点领域.本文系统梳理了思想道德、制度机制、岗位职责及社会环境等装备竞争性采购过程中可能遇到的廉政风险类型,阐述了竞争性采购项目提出环节、竞争性采购信息发布环节、候选装备...