基于知识图谱和二级传播理论的网络舆情事件传播分析

在目前的网络舆情事件传播分析中,尽管生命周期模型能够较好地描述舆情事件的发展规律,但却忽略了部分时期之间存在的共性特征,无法充分体现意见领袖对网络舆情事件传播过程的影响。本文提出了一种基于知识图谱和二级传播理论的网络舆情事件传播分析方法,首先,构建网络舆情事件知识图谱;然后,基于知识图谱计算用户影响力挖掘意见领袖;最后,考虑到意见领袖的重要地位,为有效刻画网络舆情传播规律、周期与途径,根据传播学二级传播理论构建网络舆情事件传播模型,将生命周期模型的五个时期按照舆情发展态势划分为三个阶段：潜伏期（爆发期阶段）、爆发期（成熟期阶段）以及成熟期和衰退期（消亡期阶段）。实验结果表明,该方法能够有效计算和发掘包括意见领袖在内的用户影响力,传播、分析网络舆情事件效果较好。     

Blast resistance evaluation of urban utility tunnel reinforced with BFRP bars

To improve corrosion-resistance of shallow-buried concrete urban utility tunnels(UUTs),basalt fiber reinforced polymer(BFRP)bars are applied to reinforce UUTs.As the UUT must have excellent survival capability under accidental explosions,a shallow-buried BFRP bars reinforced UUT(BBRU)was designed and constructed.Repetitive blast experiments were carried out on this BBRU.Dynamic responses,damage evolutions and failure styles of the BBRU under repetitive explosions were revealed.The tunnel roof is the most vulnerable component and longitudinal cracks develop along the tunnel.When the scaled distance is larger than 1.10 m/kg1/3,no cracks are observed in the experiments.When the BBRU is severely damaged,there are five cracks forming and developing along the roof.The roof is simplified as a clamped-supported one-way slab,proved by the observation that the maximum strain of the transverse bar is much larger than that of the longitudinal bar.Dynamic responses of the roof slab are predicted by dynamic Euler beam theory,which can consistently predict the roof displacement under large-scaled-distance explosion.Compared with the UUT reinforced with steel bars,the BBRU has advantages in blast resistance with smaller deflections and more evenly-distributed cracks when the scaled distance is smaller than 1.260 m/kg1/3 and the steel bars enter plastic state.Longer elastic defamation of the BFRP bars endows the UUT more excellent blast resistance under small-scaled-distance explosions.     

复合材料层合结构层向理论及应用进展

层向理论是由Reddy提出来的一种用于精确分析复合材料层合结构的三维板壳分析理论。由于不引入任何的变形和应力假设条件,因此相较于传统的等效单层板理论,层向理论在分析大厚度复合材料层合板壳结构的静动态响应及其局部层间效应时具有较大的优势。系统地综述了层向理论近年来的研究进展、数值解法及其应用情况。具体包括:层向理论的基本原理及发展现状、基于层向理论的有限元方法及改进模型、层向理论在复合材料层合结构静动态响应及含损伤问题领域的应用等。并对该理论可进一步拓展的研究方向进行了展望。     

A critical look at the U.S. deceased‐donor organ procurement and utilization system

The U.S. system for procuring and utilizing deceased‐donor organs for transplantation has been studied and written about in many articles. The purpose of this paper is to examine the interactions between the elements that comprise this system, and point out improvement opportunities that may be affected through operations research/management techniques. The authors demonstrate the need for developing data‐driven and analytic tools. In fact, data is used to generate hypotheses and support claims throughout the paper. The paper also points out the need to fully leverage data that is available to researchers, and to seek data that is currently not deposited in a centralized archive.     

舰艇防空抗击效能评估模型

抗击效能是评估舰艇防空作战能力的重要指标,在实际应用中需要一种简便而准确、可靠的评定方法.基于排队论建立的舰艇防空抗击效能评估模型,是从整体观念出发,宏观地考虑总体效果,不但切实可行,而且计算简便.舰艇防空抗击效能评估模型,为舰艇防空作战方案的仿真论证、防空武器的火力分配方案生成提供依据.     

解耦的三轴气浮台非线性模糊变结构鲁棒控制问题

针对飞行器全物理仿真三轴气浮台这一具有不确定性的、耦合的非线性系统,对其动力学耦合和可解耦性问题进行了分析、计算和证明.通过综合变结构控制和模糊控制,给出了一种新的非线性控制系统设计方法,此方法既可以避免变结构控制所固有的颤动现象,同时由于该模糊控制律的解析性,所以也具有实现简单,易于工程化的优点.仿真结果表明,给出的模糊变结构控制,对飞行器模型不确定性和外来干扰具有较强的和良好的跟踪性能.     

Repairable consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F system with Markov dependence

In this article, a model for a repairable consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F system with Markov dependence is studied. A binary vector is used to represent the system state. The failure rate of a component in the system depends on the state of the preceding component. The failure risk of a system state is then introduced. On the basis of the failure risk, a priority repair rule is adopted. Then the transition density matrix can be determined, and the analysis of the system reliability can be conducted accordingly. One example each of a linear and a circular system is then studied in detail to explain the model and methodology developed in this paper. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 18–39, 2000     

基于Arena仿真的事故网络风险耦合特性分析

风险传递过程中,耦合是导致风险突变的重要原因。为提供风险耦合控制方法,给出风险耦合的形式化描述,采用风险耦合弹性系数对耦合强度进行计算;基于Arena软件对某型非致命武器设计论证阶段的进度风险和费用风险之间的耦合特性进行仿真分析,分别仿真了单指标、多指标在线性和非线性耦合情形下的系统行为,结果表明:全局性的线性耦合和高强度非线性耦合能显著改变系统行为。相关结果为风险耦合控制策略的制定提供了参考。     

Inventory transshipment game with limited supply: Trap or treat

Inventory transshipment is generally shown to be beneficial to retailers by matching their excess demand with surplus inventory. We investigate an inventory transshipment game with two newsvendor-type retailers under limited total supply and check whether the retailers are better off than the case without transshipment. We derive the ordering strategies for the retailers and show that unlike the unlimited supply case, a pure Nash equilibrium only exists under certain conditions. Furthermore, contrary to the conventional wisdom, we show that inventory transshipment may not always benefit both retailers. Although one of the retailers is guaranteed to be better off, the other could be worse off. The decision criteria are then provided for the retailers to determine if they will benefit from the exercise of inventory transshipment. Numerical study indicates that the carefully chosen transshipment prices play an important role in keeping inventory transshipment beneficial to both retailers. Subsequently, a coordinating mechanism is designed for the retailers to negotiate transshipment prices that maximize the total profit of the two retailers while keeping each of them in a beneficial position.     

Balancing and optimizing a portfolio of R&D projects

A mathematical formulation of an optimization model designed to select projects for inclusion in an R&D portfolio, subject to a wide variety of constraints (e.g., capital, headcount, strategic intent, etc.), is presented. The model is similar to others that have previously appeared in the literature and is in the form of a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem known as the multidimensional knapsack problem. Exact solution of such problems is generally difficult, but can be accomplished in reasonable time using specialized algorithms. The main contribution of this paper is an examination of two important issues related to formulation of project selection models such as the one presented here. If partial funding and implementation of projects is allowed, the resulting formulation is a linear programming (LP) problem which can be solved quite easily. Several plausible assumptions about how partial funding impacts project value are presented. In general, our examples suggest that the problem might best be formulated as a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem, but that there is a need for further research to determine an appropriate expression for the value of a partially funded project. In light of that gap in the current body of knowledge and for practical reasons, the LP relaxation of this model is preferred. The LP relaxation can be implemented in a spreadsheet (even for relatively large problems) and gives reasonable results when applied to a test problem based on GM's R&D project selection process. There has been much discussion in the literature on the topic of assigning a quantitative measure of value to each project. Although many alternatives are suggested, no one way is universally accepted as the preferred way. There does seem to be general agreement that all of the proposed methods are subject to considerable uncertainty. A systematic way to examine the sensitivity of project selection decisions to variations in the measure of value is developed. It is shown that the solution for the illustrative problem is reasonably robust to rather large variations in the measure of value. We cannot, however, conclude that this would be the case in general. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 18–40, 2001