Portfolio analysis for defense: taking account of networking

To manage their assets at an enterprise level, defense organizations have turned to portfolio theory for the planning, analysis and management of their military forces and materiel. Despite being well established in the commercial sector, the application of portfolio approaches in defense is problematic. The vexatious question for defense of how to define and measure benefits arising is complicated by the increased utility and effectiveness achieved through networking of military forces and the equipment they use. The authors discuss the challenges for defense in using a portfolio approach and propose a conceptual model for dealing with the effects arising from networking with information and communications technologies.     

基于免疫遗传算法的人上位拣选车作业规划问题求解

针对人上位拣选车的作业轨迹规划问题构建了具有附加安全约束条件的时间最优控制数学模型,并提出了一种免疫遗传求解算法．该算法较单纯遗传算法有效避免了种群退化,且收敛速度更快．实验表明,该算法适用于求解人上位拣选车的作业轨迹规划问题．     

助推-滑翔飞行器可达区域影响因素研究

利用Radau伪谱法将连续的助推-滑翔飞行器轨迹优化问题转化为非线性规划问题,通过仿真得到了飞行器完整的可达区域,着重分析了升阻比、终端速度以及终端倾角对飞行器可达区域的影响.研究结果表明,可达区域呈现出类椭圆结构,其地理区域覆盖能力由助推火箭关机点速度决定;与终端倾角对飞行器可达区域的影响相比,飞行器升阻比特性和终端速度的影响相对较大.     

SLOWING DOWN TO KEEP THE LEAD IN MILITARY TECHNOLOGY

We develop a model of military technology competition among states. States can choose to introduce new military technology, mimic rivals’ level of technology, or withdraw from the contest. States can choose to implement any level of technology within their current feasible technologies. We find that states with significant technological leads should sometimes withhold new technologies, only strategically releasing them to trump rivals’ efforts. We develop the model by refining Admiral Jackie Fisher’s roughly articulated concept of ‘plunging’. We then use this refined argument to reanalyze the case of naval rivalries among European powers between the Crimean War and the First World War. Finally, we conclude by discussing the model’s implications for current US military force structure planning.     

U.S. policy on preventive war and preemption

In the aftermath of September 11, 2001 and Hurricane Katrina, the United States government has spent tens of billions of dollars to improve the nation's ability to respond to a natural disaster or terrorist attack, but the emphasis on immediate first response has left many long-term environmental, political, and technological challenges unaddressed. Although a dirty bomb attack is unlikely to yield the same amount of physical devastation and death as caused by Katrina or a nuclear weapon, the social, psychological, and economic impact would be enormous. At present, however, the United States lacks the technology necessary to decontaminate a large, densely populated urban area under time, political, and economic constraints. This article reviews past cleanup experiences and current decontamination capabilities to consider the long-term implications of a dirty bomb, identifies weaknesses in America's existing response capabilities, notes possible areas of political friction, and considers the implications of the failure to adequately prepare. Having the appropriate decontamination techniques established and long-term plans in place before an incident occurs will significantly improve the government's ability to protect public and environmental security, establish a viable decontamination strategy, allow residents to return to their homes, and get the local economy back on its feet.     

Generalized orienteering problem with resource dependent rewards

We introduce a generalized orienteering problem (OP) where, as usual, a vehicle is routed from a prescribed start node, through a directed network, to a prescribed destination node, collecting rewards at each node visited, to maximize the total reward along the path. In our generalization, transit on arcs in the network and reward collection at nodes both consume a variable amount of the same limited resource. We exploit this resource trade‐off through a specialized branch‐and‐bound algorithm that relies on partial path relaxation problems that often yield tight bounds and lead to substantial pruning in the enumeration tree. We present the smuggler search problem (SSP) as an important real‐world application of our generalized OP. Numerical results show that our algorithm applied to the SSP outperforms standard mixed‐integer nonlinear programming solvers for moderate to large problem instances. We demonstrate model enhancements that allow practitioners to represent realistic search planning scenarios by accounting for multiple heterogeneous searchers and complex smuggler motion. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

舰艇防空火力规划与调度方法研究

根据舰艇防空武器拦截过程的时间连续性和拦截效果的不确定性特点,提出了智能规划和优化调度相结合的舰艇防空计划生成方法。在规划阶段,先用智能规划描述语言PDDL对舰艇防空问题进行建模;针对新的来袭目标或观察的拦截结果,利用智能规划的高效行动推理能力,快速生成可能的备选行动方案;在优化调度阶段,对已生成的备选方案的行动系列进行时间、资源冲突处理,并计算选择出当前最佳拦截方案。与现有的采用离散化处理的武器-目标分配方法相比,该规划与调度过程充分体现了拦截过程的连续性,拦截效果的不确定性,拦截过程中的武器协同,以及最佳拦截时机的选择等,更好地描述了舰艇防空的实际过程。最后,通过蒙特卡罗仿真试验,验证了算法的有效性,为舰艇的自动化防空提供了一种新的解决办法。     

面向武器装备体系组合规划的集成决策优化框架

针对当前武器装备体系组合规划存在选择空间规模大、决策目标数量多等问题,提出一种集成决策优化框架,用于组合选择和规划武器装备的发展型号、时间和数量。首先对武器装备体系组合规划问题的NP-Hard和高维多目标性质进行定量化分析和公式化描述;然后采用目标规划方法将该问题构建为双目标优化模型;再基于NSGA-II多目标演化计算方法,开发面向本问题的优化算法,求得该模型的Pareto解集合;最后通过TOPSIS方法,从Pareto解集合中求取符合决策者偏好的满意解。通过某侦察预警监视体系发展规划示例,验证了当给定经验数据和决策者偏好信息后,该框架可获得符合要求的武器装备体系组合规划方案,能够支撑武器装备体系发展论证和规划。     

一种简化的弹道方程模型研究

弹丸在飞行过程中受到空气动力的作用,空气动力的系数也难以确定,这造成弹丸运动方程非常复杂.从空气动力对弹丸的作用效果出发来分析空气动力的变化,然后根据弹丸在飞行过程中受到的空气动力提出了一种简化的弹道方程模型,并通过对某射表的分析计算验证其有效性.     

高空远程滑翔UUV减速段弹道仿真与分析

高空远程滑翔UUV技术是一种集高空滑翔与水下航行于一体的综合技术研究,减速段弹道是高空远程滑翔UUV弹道流程中的重要部分.通过建立高空滑翔UUV的六自由度数学模型,在Matlab/Simulink环境下对减速段弹道进行了运动仿真与分析.采用火箭反推减速方案对UUV进行减速,根据UUV入水条件要求设置初始条件,仿真结果显示UUV能满足入水条件要求,证明了此方案的可行性.并对影响减速段弹道的因素:反推力的大小、反推力作用时间、反推火箭安装位置进行了仿真与分析,对以后的进一步研究具有指导意义.