基于态势预测的无人机防相撞控制方法

针对无人机自主飞行过程中,受空中非协作移动目标威胁较大,且空中移动威胁存在高机动性的特点,提出一种预测移动威胁情况下的无人机防撞控制方法,该方法采用交互多模(IMM)算法预测移动威胁的运动状态,同时利用滚动时域控制(RHC)思想建立无人机运动控制模型,构造有约束目标函数,运用微分进化算法(DE)求解目标函数,获取最优控制量,输入控制模型,完成防撞机动控制。仿真结果表明,该方法可以有效解决空中多架航空器同时入侵的防撞问题。     

机动目标IMM三维并行滤波跟踪算法

由于复杂的空中目标机动,其三维方向的机动强度是不一致的,传统IMM算法存在模型匹配不准确的问题,提出一种机动目标IMM三维并行滤波的跟踪算法。算法以CV和修正的CS模型为子集,在3个坐标轴上分别根据目标机动的分量实际更新其模型概率,并行IMM滤波方法,尽量确保模型的适配性,提高滤波精度。仿真结果表明,该算法比传统IMM方法跟踪精度更高,对空中机动目标跟踪适应性更强。     

Many‐server loss models with non‐poisson time‐varying arrivals

This article proposes an approximation for the blocking probability in a many‐server loss model with a non‐Poisson time‐varying arrival process and flexible staffing (number of servers) and shows that it can be used to set staffing levels to stabilize the time‐varying blocking probability at a target level. Because the blocking probabilities necessarily change dramatically after each staffing change, we randomize the time of each staffing change about the planned time. We apply simulation to show that (i) the blocking probabilities cannot be stabilized without some form of randomization, (ii) the new staffing algorithm with randomiation can stabilize blocking probabilities at target levels and (iii) the required staffing can be quite different when the Poisson assumption is dropped. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 177–202, 2017     

The Impact of the Unemployment Rate on Attrition of First-Term Enlistees

This study examines the effects of home-state unemployment rates on attrition behavior of Navy enlistees for successive career windows during the first term of service: the first 6?months, the second 6?months, the second year, and the third year of service. The results indicate that attrition is negatively associated with changes in the local unemployment rate during the first three career windows covering two years of service. However, after two years of service, the estimated effect of the unemployment rate becomes insignificant for most groups of sailors. This is likely because sailors with the poorest job matches are sorted out early in the first term of service.     

Defense spending and economic growth across the Taiwan straits: a threshold regression model

This paper employs both linear and non‐linear models to investigate the relationship between national defense spending and economic growth for Taiwan and China. Using data from 1953–2000 on defense spending, GDP, import, export and capital, we find that China's defense spending leads that of Taiwan. There exists the phenomenon of an arms race between both countries when official Chinese data are used. On the one hand, feedback relations prevail between economic growth and defense spending growth in Taiwan. On the other hand, China's national defense is found to lead economic growth.     

试论武警“合训”院校现代化教学模式的构建

武警部队院校体制调整后,作为担负学历教育的“合训”院校,只有大力加强教学理论研究,及时实现教员角色转变,积极营造健康向上的教学环境,才能顺利实现“培养具有较高文化素养、具备扎实军事基础的新型军事人才”的教学目标。     

基于功能角色模型的反馈系统故障模式影响分析

从系统功能设计过程出发,在分析反馈系统工作原理及其功能角色模型构造特点的基础上,认为反馈信号在输入端可等效为正、负、零三种误差信号。以此为基础,提出了反馈系统基于该理论的故障传播分析方法和技术。最后以飞机发动机燃料计量系统为例,阐述该方法在反馈系统中应用的可行性。经案例分析表明,该方法可以比较有效地解决一类带反馈环的故障分析问题,大大提高了功能角色模型的应用范围。     

ARIA分组密码差分功耗分析

分析了密码算法加密过程的功耗泄露模型,给出了差分功耗分析的基本原理,针对ARIA分组密码中查找S盒的功耗泄漏进行了差分功耗分析,并进行仿真实验。实验结果表明：ARIA密码中S盒查表操作功耗消耗易遭受差分功耗攻击,对800个随机明文的功耗曲线进行实验分析,可获取ARIA加密前4轮轮密钥,结合密钥扩展算法即可获取128位的主密钥。     

防空兵群动态防空抗击效率评估模型研究

结合未来陆军机动作战实际,研究了集中射击指挥条件下,防空兵群动态防空抗击效率的评估方法。提出了目标可射击概率应依据火力单位射程选用不同模型评估的观点,探讨了火力单位转移、导弹(弹药)储备和群指挥所状态等因素对群抗击效率的影响及其评估模型。在此基础上,指出了所建模型的适用范围和需要进一步解决的问题。     

便携式防空导弹反巡航导弹作战效能分析

采用美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会提出的 ADC模型 ,对某型便携式防空导弹武器系统拦截巡航导弹的作战效能进行了详细的数学建模和分析计算 ,并得出了计算结果。从计算结果可以看出 ,作为低空反巡航导弹的武器系统 ,某型便携式防空导弹具有较高的作战效能 ,在多发联射拦截巡航导弹时其作战效能还会有进一步的提高 ,因此具有大力推广的价值。