战争系统复杂性及其基于Agent建模仿真研究进展

复杂性科学是当今世界科学发展的热点和前沿,其研究与应用正迅速向各个学科渗透和扩展,成为备受众多领域科学家关注的交叉学科研究领域.目前,在军事科学领域,战争复杂性的问题正日益受到学者们的广泛关注.应用复杂系统建模与仿真方法对战争复杂性问题进行建模与仿真研究是一种有别于传统的基于兰切斯特方程等数学模型方法研究战争问题的一种新方法.讨论了战争系统复杂性问题,在掌握现有资料的基础上,力图较全面介绍国内外关于基于Agent战争系统复杂性建模与仿真方面的最新研究进展,并对相关的研究成果给出了自己的看法.     

地方大学生在消防部队建设中的地位和作用

“科技强警”是“科技兴消防”的必由之路。地方大学生到消防部队,改善了消防干部队伍的文化结构,推进了消防部队队伍建设的现代化进程。要摸索地方大学生的成长规律,使之成为合格的警官、复合型的指挥人才,以便为消防部队建设服务。     

考虑入口和出口容积效应的涡轮动力学模型

建立了考虑涡轮入口和出口容积效应的涡轮动力学模型 ,利用该模型计算了燃气涡轮气瓶启动的动态响应过程 ,分析了影响涡轮动态特性的主要因素。计算结果表明 :涡轮前容积对涡轮入口压力和出口背压的过渡过程均有显著的影响 ,涡轮后容积对涡轮入口压力的过渡过程影响不大 ,对涡轮出口背压的影响显著。     

应力-强度模型的Bayes可靠性分析

当应力、强度分别服从于正态分布、指数分布和Weibull分布时 ,分析了应力 -强度模型的可靠性评估 ,着重讨论了无信息验前下的Bayes可靠性评估。仿真结果表明 ,无信息验前下的评估结论可以很好地用频率学派的观点来解释。     

Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach

The economic growth effects of military expenditure have been the subject of a large literature in defence economics. Theories on the economic impacts of military expenditure greatly differ and include arguments that they either enhance economic growth or crowd out productive investments. Empirical literature on defence expenditure and economic growth nexus generally employs linear specifications to investigate the impact of defence expenditures on economic growth. Although it is now well established that many economic variables may have a non-linear data-generating mechanism, it seems that this reality has long been neglected in empirical work on defence–growth nexus. This paper attempts to fill this gap by employing non-linear panel data models to examine the effects of military expenditures on economic growth for Middle Eastern countries and Turkey, for the time period 1988–2012. Results show that the effect of military expenditure on economic growth is nonlinear such that the state of the economy actually determines the effect of the former on the latter. This is important not only in showing asymmetric relationship between these variables but also in revealing the reasons of mixed results of earlier literature.     

Applying Lanchester's linear law to model the Ardennes campaign

In modern warfare, many believe the decisive factor in winning a battle is seizing the right moment to shift from defense to attack, or vice versa. This paper attempts to bring that perspective to Lanchester's differential equations of warfare, and continues the application of Lanchester's linear law to the analysis of the World War II battle of Ardennes, as reported in earlier issues of Naval Research Logistics by Bracken and by Fricker. A new variable, shift time, accounting for the timing of the shift between defense and attack is explicitly included in our version of the model, and it helps obtain improved goodness of fit to historical data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:653–661, 2001     

基于预授权的机密性和完整性动态统一模型

目前的访问控制模型无法对机密性、完整性和可用性做到合理的统一控制,尤其是对动态的、随机的访问请求控制不完善,使得攻击者总能找到脆弱点,也使得信息系统在实际应用中无法避免用户误操作引起的安全问题。提出了一种基于预授权的机密性和完整性访问控制模型,将BLP模型和Biba模型结合起来,通过引入预授权机制,对一些随机动态的访问活动进行合理控制。运用条件控制项,对主体执行任务的权限进行实时监控,动态地授予和取消主体执行任务的权限,实现系统机密性和完整性的统一,同时保证其具有较高的可用性,有利于信息的双向流动。给出了模型的应用实例,并对其安全性进行了证明。     

Operating Costs of Aging Air Force Aircraft: Adjusting for Aggregate Budget Effects

The rate at which operating costs grow as aircraft age is important for setting operating budgets and for deciding when to replace aging systems. While studies using data from the 1990's typically found 1–3 percent real rates of growth in operating costs as aircraft age, studies using data from the 2000's found greater rates, for example in the 4–6 percent range. Growth in the total U.S. Air Force budget during the 2000s appears to explain much of the higher estimated annual growth rates in operating costs per flying hour beyond the growth rate intrinsic to the aging of the fleet.     

South African defence policy: the rationale and impact of the SANDF’s primary role and conventional force design

The 2015 South African Defence Review set out to reverse the deterioration of South African National Defence Force (SANDF) capabilities. Within the South African Department of Defence (DOD) this deterioration is expressed mainly in terms of a decreasing defence budget, subsequent declining conventional capabilities and obsolete prime mission equipment. Contemporary research and defence expert debates on this theme, point out the disjuncture between policy ends and the available means, with scepticism for an increased defence budget given the DOD’s lack of internal reform and strategy adjustment. One question that remains largely unanswered in the literature regarding the decline of the SANDF, is why both the policy-makers and the SANDF have remained focused on the primary role of the military (defending territorial integrity) accompanied with an unaffordable conventional force design? This question relates to the aim of this paper and is explored by revisiting initial defence policy decisions and compromises that were made in the 1990s. It is argued that the primary role of the SANDF and its conventional force design suited the interests of both the politicians and the military, but that the drawbacks thereof have harshly caught up with the DOD.     

基于概率分析法的无人攻击机作战效能分析模型研究

未来防空战场上无人攻击机已成为一种重要的空中威胁。无人攻击机作战过程可分为飞行、突防、攻击三个阶段,运用概率分析方法分别建立了各阶段的数学模型,给出了其作战效能表达式,为进一步进行无人攻击机作战效能分析提供了模型基础。