A robust queueing network analyzer based on indices of dispersion

We develop a robust queueing network analyzer algorithm to approximate the steady-state performance of a single-class open queueing network of single-server queues with Markovian routing. The algorithm allows nonrenewal external arrival processes, general service-time distributions and customer feedback. The algorithm is based on a decomposition approximation, where each flow is partially characterized by its rate and a continuous function that measures the stochastic variability over time. This function is a scaled version of the variance-time curve, called the index of dispersion for counts (IDC). The required IDC functions for the external arrival processes can be calculated from the model primitives or estimated from data. Approximations for the IDC functions of the internal flows are calculated by solving a set of linear equations. The theoretical basis is provided by heavy-traffic limits for the flows established in our previous papers. A robust queueing technique is used to generate approximations of the mean steady-state performance at each queue from the IDC of the total arrival flow and the service specification at that queue. The algorithm's effectiveness is supported by extensive simulation studies.     

Establishment,simulation and verification of firepower safety control model

On a narrow warship platform, the coordinated use of shipborne weapon systems may cause firepower conflicts, which seriously endangers the ship safety. Meanwhile, with directed-energy weapons mounted on ships, firepower conflicts between weapons become a “high probability event”. Aiming at the problem of firepower safety control, based on the research about the collision probability model of air crafts and space targets and according to the cone of fire model of conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons, this paper solved the firepower conflict probabilities between conventional weapons as well as between conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons respectively using the methods of probability theory, and established the firepower safety control model. Then the calculation of firepower conflict probability was carried out using the dimensionality reduction method based on the equivalent conversion of polar coordinates and the power series method based on Laplace transform. The simulation results revealed that the proposed model and calculation methods are effective and reliable, which can provide theoretical basis and technical support for resolution of firepower conflicts between weapons.     

多指标下的炮兵火力最优分配

为了提高炮兵火力打击效能,提出了小生境遗传算法与模糊多目标决策相结合的混合算法,建立了多指标下的炮兵火力分配模型,并阐述了混合算法设计,给出了应用举例,结果表明,与传统的单指标下的炮兵火力最优分配相比,该方法更符合战场实际情况。     

火力分配综合效率指标计算方法研究

针对传统计算火力分配综合效率指标方法的局限性,在确定空袭兵器威胁度和防空火力单元射击有利度的基础上,结合实际作战的不同情况,介绍了一种计算火力分配综合效率指标的新方法。通过算例,证明了该方法的可行性。     

潜艇正横发射诱饵安全性的建模与仿真

正横布置的潜艇发射装置在发射鱼雷诱饵时,有可能与发射艇的尾部相碰撞,分析了诱饵在发射管内的运动,建立了诱饵发射后在脱离发射管阶段及在初始弹道阶段的弹道数学模型,并以建立的数学模型为基础进行了仿真.仿真结果分析了不安全的内因,提出了为了保证诱饵发射的安全,应合理确定发射时的艇速、诱饵出管速度、合理选择舵角和操舵方式等影响因素.     

装甲装备修理对象修理工作量的分布模型及应用

通过论述当今典型军队战时修理机构任务的划分,给出了装甲装备修理对象按照修理工作量和按照修理时间分布的2种模型,结合俄陆军各级修理机构修理时限的划分,计算得到了典型装甲装备的技术故障和战损产生的修理对象在各级修理机构的概率分布,为开展战损研究提供了一条新途径,对提高技术保障方案的准确性有积极作用。     

舰船拖带安全评估的故障树方法

提出了一种从故障树分析的角度进行舰船拖带安全评估的方法。采用专家评估和模糊集理论相结合的原理得到故障树中基本事件发生的模糊概率,然后进行故障树定性和定量分析。该方法能合理和有效地预测作业系统的安全性及其薄弱环节。以断缆事件分析为例,对该安全评估方法做了概要阐述。     

基于装备损伤概率的舰艇动力系统安全性分析

考虑舰艇损害管制过程中人员因素对系统的影响,运用马尔科夫链对人员操作引起的舰艇动力系统损伤概率进行修正,根据修正后的毁伤概率,建立概率危险性评估模型,引入危险度指标,对动力系统在遭受武器攻击情况下的危险度进行了计算,并依据计算结果对系统安全度进行评定。     

边防部队保密工作之我见

保密工作是边防部队机关工作的重要内容之一。做好新形势下的保密工作,应从“窃密与反窃密”、“密与非密界定”入手,以信息安全为重点,在加强涉密计算机系统保密管理、提高保密人员素质、加大保密工作投入等方面切实做好边防部队保密工作。     

实时仿真系统体系结构设计的一般方法

针对目前文献中关于实时仿真系统的设计方案大多是围绕某个具体的任务而展开,缺乏一般性指导意义的问题,文中从实用的角度,提出了两种流行的实时仿真系统——集中式实时仿真系统和分布式实时仿真系统的总体方案,对方案的硬件结构、软件组成、优缺点、应用范围等进行了详细分析,这两种方案涵盖了目前常用的实时仿真系统的基本体系结构,对实时仿真系统设计人员具有实际参考价值。