Constant risk aversion in stochastic contests with exponential completion times

This article analyzes a class of stochastic contests among multiple players under risk‐averse exponential utility. In these contests, players compete over the completion of a task by simultaneously deciding on their investment, which determines how fast they complete the task. The completion time of the task for each player is assumed to be an exponentially distributed random variable with rate linear in the player's investment and the completion times of different players are assumed to be stochastically independent. The player that completes the task first earns a prize whereas the remaining players earn nothing. The article establishes a one‐to‐one correspondence between the Nash equilibrium of this contest with respect to risk‐averse exponential utilities and the nonnegative solution of a nonlinear equation. Using the properties of the latter, it proves the existence and the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, and provides an efficient method to compute it. It exploits the resulting representation of the equilibrium investments to determine the effects of risk aversion and the differences between the outcome of the Nash equilibrium and that of a centralized version.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:4–14, 2019     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

Safety in international security: a view point from the practice of accident investigation

While security points to a deliberate harming of humans and/or the environment, safety refers to unintended damage. In this view point, I will analyse how the distinction between safety and security matters in the practice of accident investigation and I will argue that the division between the fields is problematic for the assessment of security-related safety risks. Drawing on the case of the our accident investigation into the downing of flight MH17 above Ukraine in 2014, I highlight key dilemmas the Dutch Safety Board dealt with.     

论化工企业的防火设计

通过分析现行化工企业防火设计的基本做法和趋势,提出化工企业防火设计的要点及应注意的问题.     

试论孙子兵法对消防工作的指导

近年来,全国各级公安消防部门为有效防控重特大火灾事故、确保火灾形势稳定,发起了治理火灾隐患的战役。打好战役,必须讲方法、讲韬略。《孙子兵法》是一部伟大的军事著作,共分13篇,在其中选取部分精辟的观点,试述其对加强和改进消防工作的指导作用。     

家电下乡背景下农村电气火灾频发的原因及对策

为促进社会主义新农村建设,我国采取了＂家电下乡＂惠民政策,这在提高农民生活质量的同时,随着用电量的增加,农村电气火灾高发不容忽视。分析了＂家电下乡＂背景下农村电气火灾频发的原因,提出了加大基础设施建设、提高农电管理人员消防安全素质、加强安全用电知识宣传、明确职责等几项应对措施,确保农村电气消防安全。     

建筑火灾风险模糊综合评估方法研究

按照建筑火灾发展的不同时间阶段,建立了四阶段的模糊综合评估模型,用来评估财产损失和建筑损坏情况。根据专家意见和笔者研究,确定了建筑火灾风险评估指标体系,使用层次分析法得到各指标权重,并对某大厦进行了火灾风险评估。研究结果表明该方法具有较好的应用价值,实现了用模糊综合评估方法对建筑火灾分阶段的风险评估,反映出火灾发展各时间阶段的情况和影响火灾风险的主要因素。     

养老院的火灾危险性及预防对策

随着养老院的数量不断增加,其火灾的起数也随之上升,造成人员伤亡的火灾事故也时有发生。分析了养老院的火灾危险性及火灾危害性,并针对性地给出了养老院消防安全管理要点和养老院建筑要遵守的设计防火要点。     

水电站消防设计常见问题及对策探讨

结合两个水电站的具体建筑工程审查,在分析水电站的火灾危险性特点的基础上,总结了水电站消防设计常见问题,讨论了水电站防火分区、安全疏散、火灾自动报警系统、自动喷水灭火系统和排烟系统的消防设计。对解决水电站消防设计中存在的问题具有一定的指导意义。     

圣哥达隧道火灾疏散案例剖析及启示

公路隧道作为公路的衍生物,是重要的交通设施,由于特殊的空间局限,随着交通事业的发展,交通密度的增长．行车速度的提高,各种栽有可燃物质的车辆通过隧道数量和频率的增长,使得隧道火灾发生的频率呈上升趋势,一旦发生火灾,扑救和疏散都十分困难。圣哥达隧道火灾将会给我们一些疏散及安全方面的启示。