An enterprise portfolio approach for defence capability planning

Capability-based planning (CBP) is considered by many defence organisations to be the best practice for enterprise-level planning, analysis and management. This approach, loosely based around investment portfolio theory, is premised on balancing the cost, benefit and risk of capability options across the defence enterprise. However a number of authors have recently noted limitations of its current applications. The authors propose a more general, insurance-based approach, which can support the evolutionary improvement of the current CBP approach. This approach is implemented as hedging-based planning and aims to better reflect the enterprise nature of defence organisations, capturing both force structure and force generation aspects of military systems.     

太空安全监管法律机制刍议

制约太空军备竞赛、防止太空武器化已成为维护太空安全、维持全球战略稳定的一个重要方面。构建与完善包括空间物体登记制度、透明与信任建设机制及核查制度在内的太空安全监管制度,对于消除、缓解国家间误解与紧张关系,促进世界主要国家的信任与合作,维护各国太空活动安全,具有积极作用,不失为一条务实、有效的共同抵制太空武器化的重要路径。     

基于FMECA的信息系统软件失效安全风险评估与预测

随着大量软件产品应用于信息系统,不可避免地增大了软件失效对系统安全的影响概率。本文以某信息系统文电收发的处理过程为例,引入FMECA法,对其文电收发处理过程中由软件造成的风险进行分析,同时分析了引起风险常见的失效模式,并引入Markov模型对软件失效造成系统严重危害的风险进行预测,通过Markov模型与FMECA法结合能够迅速定位软件失效的原因,减少因软件失效造成的系统损失。     

A location‐inventory model with lateral transshipments

We study an infinite horizon periodic stochastic inventory system consisting of retail outlets and customers located on a homogenous line segment. In each period, the total demand, generated by the customers on the line, is normally distributed. To better match supply and demand, we incorporate lateral transshipments. We propose a compact model in which the strategic decisions—the number and locations of retail outlets—are determined simultaneously with the operational decisions—the inventory replenishment and transshipment quantities. We find the optimal balance between the risk‐pooling considerations, which drive down the optimal number of retail outlets, and lateral transshipments, which drive up the optimal number of retail outlets. We also explore the sensitivity of the optimal number of retail outlets to various problem parameters. This article presents a novel way of integrating lateral transshipments in the context of an inventory‐location model. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Specification vagueness and supply quality risk

Specifying quality requirement is integral to any sourcing relationship, but vague and ambiguous specifications can often be observed in practice, especially when a buyer is in the initial stage of sourcing a new product. In this research, we study a supplier's production incentives under vague or exact quality specifications. We prove that a vague specification may in fact motivate the supplier to increase its quantity provision, resulting in a higher delivery quality. Vague quality specification can therefore be advantageous for a buyer to screen potential suppliers with an initial test order, and then rely on the received quality level to set more concrete quality guidelines. There is a degree, though, to which vague quality specification can be effective, as too much vagueness may decrease the supplier's quantity provision and hence the expected delivery quality. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

费氏曲线在大型购物中心防火安全评估中的应用

大型购物中心结构复杂,人员密集,火灾隐患较多,提前做好防火安全评估工作十分重要.利用现场调查法、实例分析法等,结合费氏曲线防火安全评估法针对大型购物中心的空阃特性和防火对策作探讨,并对某购物中心进行评估,利用疏散允许时间的人员安全曲线,得出该购物中心在发生火灾时的人员安全曲线.通过对防火安全方法进行分析,体现出费氏曲线在大型购物中心防火安全评估应用中的适用性、发展性.     

Alternatives for defense in the Post‐Soviet World: A guide for economists to the U.S. debate

The defense establishments of all major powers are changing to reflect changes in the foundations of national security strategy and resource allocation. The authors believe economists should play an active role in formulating these changes and offer an orientation to the U.S. debate, presenting three major alternatives: the “Base Force” (Bush Administration), Mr. Aspin's Force “C,” and the “Low” Alternative (Prof. Kaufmann and Dr. Steinbruner). These alternatives are compared using first‐order measures of capabilities, budgets and risk. Budgetary estimates are based on newly‐developed analytical tools.     

CONFLICT RESOLUTION PROCESSES,UNCERTAINTY AND INVESTMENT DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FOR THE BASQUE COUNTRY

The Junior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps is a high school program that combines classroom teaching with extracurricular activities. The program is located primarily in inner city schools and serves at‐risk students. Its goals are multidimensional and include military preparation and improving academic achievement. Using High School and Beyond data we find that the program’s effects depend on the timing and intensity of involvement. Test scores, graduation rates, and enlistments are higher for students who participate early in high school and for those who persist in the program. Conversely, we find few effects for students participating in the last two years of high school.     

论性能化防火设计中安全疏散设计的检验

以超高层商住楼为例 ,对“性能化”防火设计中安全疏散设计的检验原理、方法进行了较为深入的探讨 ,目的在于为我国的“性能化”防火设计提供一种切实可行的设计方法