MTBF保证试验应用条件及风险分析

简介了美军使用的MTBF保证试验,并对进行MTBF保证试验的条件和经保证试验后使用方的风险进行了分析,说明了MTBF保证试验是可以在工程中应用的.     

基于最大后验风险的多层Bayes方法

为了对指数型产品进行可靠性鉴定,首先给出了失效率的多层先验分布,然后从最大后验风险的角度,运用Bayes方法,制定出可靠性鉴定试验方案.按照此鉴定试验方案,缩短了试验时间,从而降低了鉴定试验所需的费用.     

基于大规模贝叶斯网络的安全性分析算法

贝叶斯网络计算量随着节点数增多呈指数增长,限制了大规模贝叶斯网络在安全性分析中的应用。为此,利用独立性条件分解整个网络,压缩推理时显式表达的项数,给出了计算顶事件发生概率及割集的算法,并分析了算法复杂性。在满足工程需要情况下,将提出算法与基于BDD算法相比,该算法表现出占用内存少、运行速度快的良好性能。     

Inventory cost impact of order processing priorities based on demand uncertainty

We evaluate an approach to decrease inventory costs at retail inventory locations that share a production facility. The retail locations sell the same product but differ in the variance of retail demand. Inventory policies at retail locations generate replenishment orders for the production facility. The production facility carries no finished goods inventory. Thus, production lead time for an order is the sojourn time in a single server queueing system. This lead time affects inventory costs at retail locations. We examine the impact of moving from a First Come First Served (FCFS) production rule for orders arriving at the production facility to a rule in which we provide non‐preemptive priority (PR) to orders from retail locations with higher demand uncertainty. We provide three approximations for the ratio of inventory costs under PR and FCFS and use them to identify conditions under which PR decreases retail inventory costs over FCFS. We then use a Direct Approach to establish conditions when PR decreases retail inventory costs over FCFS. We extend the results to orders from locations that differ in the mean and variance of demand uncertainty. The analysis suggests that tailoring lead times to product demand characteristics may decrease system inventory costs. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 376–390, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10016     

人脸特征定位在油库安全监控中的应用研究

人脸特征定位是人脸检测与识别中的重点与难点,也是研究的热点;而油库安全是油库各项工作的首位,是油库建设和发展的“生命线”,通过人脸检测进行个人身份识别是消除人为不安全因素,保证油库安全的有效措施。在此背景下提出了一种基于人脸图像的对人脸特征进行定位以及提取轮廓的方法,这种方法可以提高人脸特征检测的效率。并把这种方法应用到油库安全监控中,提出了系统的原理与设计,来达到保障油库安全的目的。     

用有限元强度折减法进行加筋土挡土墙稳定性分析

加筋土挡土墙边坡是一种新型的边坡加固形式,传统的理论分析主要是考虑力的平衡关系,因此还有不少的缺陷,而有限元分析不仅满足力与位移的平衡关系,而且考虑了筋带与土体的协调变形作用,模拟的结果能使人们方便地掌握挡墙的整体与局部变化。结合某加筋土挡土墙的实例,利用有限元对其进行了数值模拟,用强度折减法计算了边坡的安全系数,并与极限平衡进行比较,对类似的工程有一定的指导作用。     

基于组合机动的空间V-bar交会策略

提出了一种基于切向脉冲与径向连续常推力组合机动的空间V-bar交会策略。从绝对运动与相对运动两方面推导了维持追踪航天器圆轨道运行的组合机动的运动规律,给出了V-bar接近段与逼近段的制导律。在接近段,匀速直线接近,无需考虑视界约束的限制,转移时间控制灵活;在逼近段,先以大速率等速逼近,再切换为小速率等速逼近,切换过程可以灵活控制,制导简单,自然满足直线型标称轨迹要求,安全性好。     

互锁卡板式惯性保险机构结构设计及运动特性分析

介绍了互锁卡板式惯性保险机构的基本结构形式及作用原理,并利用Solid W orks三维机械设计软件对3块卡板进行结构设计,并在此基础上,分析了卡板的受力情况及可靠解除保险条件,给出受力方程,计算出卡板及扭簧的相关参数。     

Postmodern warfare and the blurred boundaries between war and peace

Each age has its own wars and its own forms of warfare. In today’s evolving world risk society warfare has entered a new development stage. The states of the “global North” adapt their forms of intervention. They increasingly practice postmodern warfare characterized especially by the role of influencing the information space, networked approaches, the incorporation of indirect and covert actions, and the special quality of new technologies. This practice furthers an increasing grey zone between limiting and de-bounding of warfare. The phenomenon of postmodern warfare raises some tough questions and offers a rich research agenda.     

非致命武器系统安全性分析

非致命武器在各类防暴和处突任务中发挥着重要作用,为提高非致命武器的系统安全性,给出了系统安全性的定义,明确了非致命武器系统安全性的组成,分析了非致命武器本质(固有)安全性和使用安全性的关系。在建立非致命武器系统安全性评价指标的基础上,建立了适用于非致命武器的安全管理系统模型,为非致命武器的安全管理模式提供了一种新的思路。