闸刀开关过载火灾危险性研究

通过实验研究了不同类型的闸刀开关在不同过负荷电流条件下的温度上升情况,测量了闸刀开关在两类过负荷条件下的最高温度以及达到最高温度需要的时间,并对影响闸刀开关温度升高的因素以及达到最高温度时能否引燃周围可燃物进行了分析讨论。实验结果显示,闸刀开关在Ⅱ类过负荷条件下的火灾危险性远大于在Ⅰ类过负荷条件下的火灾危险性。在同类过负荷电流条件下,闸刀开关的额定电流越大,过负荷倍数越大,火灾危险性也越大。     

纺织涂层行业消防安全现状及对策研究

纺织涂层工艺是纺织行业深加工不可缺少的组成部分,纺织涂层行业在带来经济效益的同时,也带来了诸多安全生产隐患。简要介绍了纺织涂层技术,分析了纺织涂层行业的火灾危险性,从完善安全技术法规、完善安全管理体系、建立安全管理机构、严格审批等方面提出了相应的消防安全对策和建议。     

现代灭火救援行动中安全隐患探析

以现代灭火救援行动中存在的安全隐患为切入口,归纳出爆燃、危险品、烟雾、高温、井坑池、电流和建筑物坍塌等七种主要威胁灭火人员安全的危险隐患,详细解析了这七种危险源形成原因和危害特点,并针对灭火救援行动,提出了相应的防范措施。     

空客喷漆车间火灾危险性分析

从喷漆大厅火灾爆炸危险源、全部气化的危险性两个方面分析了空客A320飞机喷漆车间的火灾爆炸危险性,并对喷漆车间爆炸危险区域进行了划分,提出了在飞机喷漆车间设计中应采取的安全措施。     

基于Arena仿真的事故网络风险耦合特性分析

风险传递过程中,耦合是导致风险突变的重要原因。为提供风险耦合控制方法,给出风险耦合的形式化描述,采用风险耦合弹性系数对耦合强度进行计算;基于Arena软件对某型非致命武器设计论证阶段的进度风险和费用风险之间的耦合特性进行仿真分析,分别仿真了单指标、多指标在线性和非线性耦合情形下的系统行为,结果表明:全局性的线性耦合和高强度非线性耦合能显著改变系统行为。相关结果为风险耦合控制策略的制定提供了参考。     

浅析建筑物鉴定中的计数抽样方案

在介绍计数型抽样检验原理的基础上,从建筑物鉴定检测的特点出发提出了采用相应抽样检验国家标准的建议。指出GB/T50344-2004《建筑结构检测技术标准》中关于计数抽样检测方案的规定失之过松,有可能给建筑物的检测或鉴定留下安全隐患,不宜采用。     

Repairable consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F system with Markov dependence

In this article, a model for a repairable consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n: F system with Markov dependence is studied. A binary vector is used to represent the system state. The failure rate of a component in the system depends on the state of the preceding component. The failure risk of a system state is then introduced. On the basis of the failure risk, a priority repair rule is adopted. Then the transition density matrix can be determined, and the analysis of the system reliability can be conducted accordingly. One example each of a linear and a circular system is then studied in detail to explain the model and methodology developed in this paper. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 18–39, 2000     

装备研制项目技术风险评估模型

建立了装备研制项目技术风险评估模型,并用系统分析的方法,实现了对技术风险的动态评估,并以示例进行了验证.     

Balancing and optimizing a portfolio of R&D projects

A mathematical formulation of an optimization model designed to select projects for inclusion in an R&D portfolio, subject to a wide variety of constraints (e.g., capital, headcount, strategic intent, etc.), is presented. The model is similar to others that have previously appeared in the literature and is in the form of a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem known as the multidimensional knapsack problem. Exact solution of such problems is generally difficult, but can be accomplished in reasonable time using specialized algorithms. The main contribution of this paper is an examination of two important issues related to formulation of project selection models such as the one presented here. If partial funding and implementation of projects is allowed, the resulting formulation is a linear programming (LP) problem which can be solved quite easily. Several plausible assumptions about how partial funding impacts project value are presented. In general, our examples suggest that the problem might best be formulated as a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem, but that there is a need for further research to determine an appropriate expression for the value of a partially funded project. In light of that gap in the current body of knowledge and for practical reasons, the LP relaxation of this model is preferred. The LP relaxation can be implemented in a spreadsheet (even for relatively large problems) and gives reasonable results when applied to a test problem based on GM's R&D project selection process. There has been much discussion in the literature on the topic of assigning a quantitative measure of value to each project. Although many alternatives are suggested, no one way is universally accepted as the preferred way. There does seem to be general agreement that all of the proposed methods are subject to considerable uncertainty. A systematic way to examine the sensitivity of project selection decisions to variations in the measure of value is developed. It is shown that the solution for the illustrative problem is reasonably robust to rather large variations in the measure of value. We cannot, however, conclude that this would be the case in general. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 18–40, 2001     

突发重大疫情风险管理支撑方法研究【专题】

突发重大疫情后,科学的风险管理方法可为有效规避和控制风险提供有力支撑。在突发重大疫情风险管理中,风险识别是基础,风险评估是核心,风险控制是目的。本文系统梳理与分析了风险管理中的常用方法,包括风险识别中的现场勘查法、事故树分析法、过程回溯法、专家认证法和案例分析法等5种方法,风险评估中的风险坐标图法、关键风险指标法、蒙特卡罗法、因果关系法和综合评价法等5种方法,以及风险控制决策中的成本收益决策法、决策树法和损失期望值决策法等3种方法,并对每种方法如何在此次由新型冠状病毒引发的突发重大疫情中实践应用进行了举例说明,可为今后在应对突发重大疫情时进行科学风险识别、有效风险评估和精准风险控制决策提供借鉴与参考。