A decomposition algorithm applied to planning the interdiction of stochastic networks

We describe the application of a decomposition based solution method to a class of network interdiction problems. The problem of maximizing the probability of sufficient disruption of the flow of information or goods in a network whose characteristics are not certain is shown to be solved effectively by applying a scenario decomposition method developed by Riis and Schultz [Comput Optim Appl 24 (2003), 267–287]. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm and design decisions that result in speed improvements. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

关于公共消防安全管理学科建设和专业设置的思考

公共安全问题,已经成为影响我国经济发展和社会稳定的主要问题之一,并已引起社会的广泛关注。公共安全管理正在作为一个学科和人才培养专业发展起来。消防安全是公共安全的主要内容之一,以消除火灾危害为主要目的的公共消防安全管理,既有公共安全管理的共性问题,也有自己独特的问题。公共消防安全管理与现有的消防指挥学科、消防工程学科有较大的区别,是后两者不能取代和涵盖的。因此,完善公共消防安全管理学科建设,设立公共消防安全管理专业非常必要。本文分析了我国消防学历教育中专业设置和课程设置所存在的问题,提出设置公共消防安全管理专业的必要性和重要性,并对公共消防安全管理学科建设提出了建设性意见。     

防空作战风险决策分析

防空作战决策活动具有极强的风险性。以决策者面对风险的态度为突破点,通过建立效用曲线并在最大效用原则下对有关决策问题进行优化,在一定程度上可大大降低决策方案的风险性。同时对于防空体系设计也具有一定的参考价值。     

如何在防化科研试验中加强安全保密工作

针对我院科研试验的特点和要求,分析了安全保密工作的艰巨性和重要性,明确了安全保密总要求,提出了把安全保密工作落到实处的具体措施。     

基于模糊综合评价模型的武器研制技术风险分析*

针对舰炮武器系统研制的技术特点和风险分布特征,提出了基于模糊综合评价模型的技术风险分析方法,并结合具体风险因素分析了舰炮武器系统研制技术风险评估的指标和准则。介绍了某型大口径舰炮系统的研制风险分析实例,给出了该舰炮系统研制技术风险的评估结果,验证了该方法的可靠性和有效性。     

Skewness correction X̄ and R charts for skewed distributions

This paper proposes a skewness correction (SC) method for constructing the and R control charts for skewed process distributions. Their asymmetric control limits (about the central line) are based on the degree of skewness estimated from the subgroups, and no parameter assumptions are made on the form of process distribution. These charts are simply adjustments of the conventional Shewhart control charts. Moreover, the chart is almost the same as the Shewhart chart if the process distribution is known to be symmetrical. The new charts are compared with the Shewhart charts and weighted variance (WV) control charts. When the process distribution is in some neighborhood of Weibull, lognormal, Burr or binomial family, simulation shows that the SC control charts have Type I risk (i.e., probability of a false alarm) closer to 0.27% of the normal case. Even in the case where the process distribution is exponential with known mean, not only the control limits and Type I risk, but also the Type II risk of the SC charts are closer to those of the exact and R charts than those of the WV and Shewhart charts. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 555–573, 2003     

基于两种密码体制结合的网络数据安全模型

利用密码学的方法来解决网络数据传输的安全性问题。在分析对称密码体制和公开密钥体制的代表DSE和RSA算法的优缺点后,提出将两种算法结合的网络数据安全系统的模型。     

基于强度折减法的海底隧道强震破坏机理

将强度折减法引入强震作用下的海底隧道衬砌结构安全稳定性研究,利用FLAC3D软件建立了海底隧道-岩土体-海水相互作用的强度折减法数值模型,综合考虑海底隧道衬砌在强震作用下的位移、剪应变增量和塑性区变化,确定了海底隧道衬砌局部破坏的极限平衡状态和整体破坏的极限平衡状态,分析了海底隧道衬砌在强震作用下的破坏机理。结果表明:海底隧道衬砌在水平地震波的作用下,主要是围岩变形导致隧道衬砌破坏;隧道衬砌破坏位置发生在右侧侧墙中部,破坏形式为剪切破坏;隧道衬砌局部破坏的极限安全系数为1.47,整体破坏的极限安全系数为1.8,2种安全系数的极限状态可对应结构设计中的正常使用极限状态和承载力极限状态。研究成果可为海底隧道衬砌设计提供理论依据。     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法

大型航天研发项目对于社会经济发展和国防安全有着重要影响,是国家重大工程中一类较为特殊的项目,而风险分析是大型航天研发项目按计划、高质量、低成本完成的重要保障。通过分析大型航天研发项目的特点、风险因素以及管理过程,结合Multi-Agent以及分布式项目管理的理论和技术,研究和提出了一种新的基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法,在此基础上针对具体项目进行了实验仿真,获取了项目的风险水平和关键风险因素,为航天研发项目风险管理与控制提供决策支持。