Augmented nested sampling for stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous uncertainty

We propose a novel simulation‐based approach for solving two‐stage stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous (decision dependent) uncertainty. The proposed augmented nested sampling approach recasts the stochastic optimization problem as a simulation problem by treating the decision variables as random. The optimal decision is obtained via the mode of the augmented probability model. We illustrate our methodology on a newsvendor problem with stock‐dependent uncertain demand both in single and multi‐item (news‐stand) cases. We provide performance comparisons with Markov chain Monte Carlo and traditional Monte Carlo simulation‐based optimization schemes. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.     

基于因果分析的作战计划评估技术

以信息系统五层评估框架为基础,提出了一种以作战效能为"果"、以系统效能为"因"的作战计划评估思想,给出了一种主从分析链系统效能指标构建方法,设计了一套多视图的作战计划辅助分析工具。应用表明,该方法可以有效发现作战计划中存在的问题,提高作战计划的可行性。     

成败型产品的Bayes鉴定试验方案研究

利用可靠性增长模型给出了成败型产品鉴定试验的一种Bayes方法.提出了Bayes鉴定试验的最大后验风险准则,利用这种准则制定的鉴定试验方案综合了产品研制过程中的先验信息.在确保产品质量的前提下,与传统的鉴定试验方案相比,将大大节省试验时间.     

加权采样的序列蒙特卡罗滤波技术

在处理非线性滤波问题时,常用的几种通过模型近似或计算近似的滤波方法均在某种特定的情况下具有适用性.近年来随着计算机处理能力的快速发展,提出了序列蒙特卡罗滤波方法,因其在处理复杂的非线性和非高斯问题时表现出强大的潜力而引起广泛关注.详述了序列蒙特卡罗滤波算法的基本思想和原理,对其关键技术进行了归纳分析,并指出了该方法亟待解决的一些难点问题.     

无线传感器网络中多传感器动态自适应调度算法

无线传感器网络中,目标跟踪往往通过节点之间的协作完成。在无迹变换卡尔曼滤波基础上,提出一种多传感器动态自适应调度算法进行目标跟踪。该方法根据预测跟踪精度来确定采样间隔,然后基于特定的检测概率,为下一时刻选择一组传感器,形成一个临时工作组,并指定某一个传感器作为中心节点进行数据融合。仿真结果证明了该算法能有效提高跟踪精度和可靠性。     

基于信息系统装备指挥运行机制构建研究

着眼装备指挥变革和提高指挥效能的需要,提出了基于信息系统装备指挥运行机制的概念,构建了基于信息系统的要素式装备指挥机构模型,明确了各指挥要素职能及其相互关系,分析了装备指挥信息、决策计划、协调控制的流程,建立了装备指挥效能计算模型,以期为建设新型科学的装备指挥运行机制提供依据．     

Double window acceptance sampling

We introduce the concept of a sequential double window procedure and compare the resulting acceptance test with both a fixed sample size method as well as with the Wald sequential probability ratio test. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

车载光学测量设备任务调度问题建模与求解

为提高观测方案效费比、改进探测能力,探索了一类车载光学测量设备的观测任务调度问题,并给出了解决方案。将观测任务调度问题建模为一个寻找最优观测方案的数学问题,结合设备的性能特点,给出了观测方案的数学描述,梳理了观测方案应满足的约束,提出了评价观测方案质量的指标,进而利用多属性决策方法来计算不同方案的总体效能,并排序获得最优方案。仿真算例验证了方法的有效性,相关研究成果对车载光学测量设备的运用实践具有一定的参考价值。     

助力教师专业成长 提升边疆基础教育质量——基于2019年兵团“国培计划”项目的思考

“国培计划”的实施极大地助推了兵团教师队伍建设,为边疆基础教育质量提升做出了巨大贡献。2019年,兵团“国培计划”项目在实施过程中遵循教师成长规律,重视分层分类设计,严格遴选高水准承训机构,严格过程管理;加大对南疆团场教师的培训力度,助力国家脱贫攻坚及兵团向南发展战略,培训取得良好成效。今后应加快探索“互联网+”背景下的兵团教师培训模式,进一步发挥教育科学研究在兵团“国培”中的基础性作用、智囊团角色,以推动“国培”更好地与边疆社会发展要求及教师专业发展需求相契合,助力教师专业成长,提升边疆基础教育质量。     

Variable sampling plans for normal distribution indexed by Taguchi's loss function

Taguchi has presented an approach to quality improvement in which reduction of deviation from the target value is the guiding principle. In this approach any measured value x of a product characteristic X brings a loss to consumer in general, where the loss is expressed as a quadratic form with respect to the difference between the measured value x and the target value T of a product characteristic. Then, it is natural to reject the lot which may bring a large loss to consumer. This concept induces us to construct new variable sampling plans based on the Taguchi's loss criterion. In this article, a design procedure of the sampling plans for assuring the loss in the Taguchi's method is proposed. Some numerical results based on the proposed design procedures are illustrated. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 591–603 (1997)