基于投影分解与k最近邻距离的异常证据检测算法

为降低异常证据对合成结果的影响,提出了基于投影分解与k最近邻距离的异常证据检测算法。该算法在对证据集中所有证据进行焦元单一元素投影分解的基础上,重新构造证据的基本概率赋值,然后利用证据之间形成的欧式距离,采用k最近邻距离算法对异常证据进行检测。无线传感器网络应用实验分析表明:该算法可有效地对异常证据进行检测。对检测前后的证据利用证据合成规则进行融合对比结果发现,剔除了异常证据的合成结果并具有良好的峰值性和可分辨性,合成结果有利于融合决策。     

Complexity and workload considerations in product mix decisions under the theory of constraints

The literature on the product mix decision (or master production scheduling) under the Theory of Constraints (TOC), which was developed in the past two decades, has addressed this problem as a static operational decision. Consequently, the developed solution techniques do not consider the system's dynamism and the associated challenges arising from the complexity of operations during the implementation of master production schedules. This paper aims to address this gap by developing a new heuristic approach for master production scheduling under the TOC philosophy that considers the main operational factors that influence actual throughput after implementation of the detailed schedule. We examine the validity of the proposed heuristic by comparison to Integer Linear Programming and two heuristics in a wide range of scenarios using simulation modelling. Statistical analyses indicate that the new algorithm leads to significantly enhanced performance during implementation for problems with setup times. The findings show that the bottleneck identification approach in current methods in the TOC literature is not effective and accurate for complex operations in real‐world job shop systems. This study contributes to the literature on master production scheduling and product mix decisions by enhancing the likelihood of achieving anticipated throughput during the implementation of the detailed schedule. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 357–369, 2015     

Synchronization in hub terminals with the circular arrangement problem

Hub terminals are important entities in modern distribution networks and exist for any transportation device, that is, cross docks and parcel distribution centers for trucks, container ports for ships, railway yards for trains, and hub airports for aircraft. In any of these hubs, the mid‐term planning task of synchronizing the transshipment of goods and passengers when servicing the transportation devices has to be solved, for which many different solution approaches specifically tailored to the respective application exist. We, however, take a unified view on synchronization in hubs and aim at a general building block. As a point of origin, a basic vertex ordering problem, the circular arrangement problem (CAP), is identified. We explain the relation between the CAP and hub processes, develop suited algorithms for solving the CAP, and extend the basic CAP by multiple additions, for example, arrival times, limited storage space, and multiple service points, make the problem adaptable to a wide range of hub terminals. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 454–469, 2015     

Information disclosure with endogenous channel structure

This article investigates the firms' optimal quality information disclosure strategies in a supply chain, wherein the supplier may encroach into the retail channel to sell products directly to end consumers. We consider two disclosure formats, namely, retailer disclosure (R-C) and supplier disclosure (S-C), and examine the optimal disclosure format from each firm's perspective. We show that either firm prefers to delegate the disclosure option to its partner when the supplier cannot encroach. However, the threat of supplier encroachment dramatically alters the firm's preference of disclosure. The supplier may prefer the S-C format to the R-C format when the entry cost is low and the disclosure cost is high to achieve a higher quality information transparency. Meanwhile, the retailer may prefer the R-C format to the S-C format when the entry cost is intermediate to deter the possible encroachment of the supplier. In this sense, the firms' preferences of disclosure format can be aligned due to the threat of supplier encroachment. The consumer surplus is always higher under the S-C format while either disclosure format can lead to a higher social welfare. We also consider an alternative scenario under which the supplier encroaches after the product quality information is disclosed. An interesting observation appears that the supplier may encroach when the product quality is low but foregoes encroachment when the product quality gets higher.     

基于搜索论的反舰导弹捕捉概率研究

反舰导弹已成为现代海战中的主要进攻武器,正确选择反舰导弹捕捉概率计算模型,对火控系统解算、指挥决策至关重要。针对传统捕捉概率计算方法存在的不足,根据搜索论的基本原理、反舰导弹自控终点分布函数、目标位置域函数、目标分布函数、导弹雷达扫描特征等,提出了基于搜索论的捕捉概率计算方法,确定了常见目标分布条件下的现在点射击捕捉概率计算模型,通过仿真验证了模型的正确性,并由仿真结果确定了敌舰高速规避条件下目标瞄准点选取模型。     

Capacity games for partially complementary products under multivariate random demands

In this study, we consider n firms, each of which produces and sells a different product. The n firms face a common demand stream which requests all their products as a complete set. In addition to the common demand stream, each firm also faces a dedicated demand stream which requires only its own product. The common and dedicated demands are uncertain and follow a general, joint, continuous distribution. Before the demands are realized, each firm needs to determine its capacity or production quantity to maximize its own expected profit. We formulate the problem as a noncooperative game. The sales price per unit for the common demand could be higher or lower than the unit price for the dedicated demand, which affects the firm's inventory rationing policy. Hence, the outcome of the game varies. All of the prices are first assumed to be exogenous. We characterize Nash equilibrium(s) of the game. At the end of the article, we also provide some results for the endogenous pricing. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 59: 146–159, 2012     

基于场的装备物资供应保障适应性配置决策

根据与物理场的相似性,将装备物资供应保障抽象为供应保障场,在定义场强度的基础上,提出基于场强度的反演运算进行供应保障资源配置的方法,给出了通过实时获取战场信息跟踪供应保障场的变化进行保障资源适应性配置决策的流程。     

基于D-S证据理论的技术成熟度评估关键技术识别方法研究

针对技术成熟度评估中识别关键技术这一多属性群决策问题,提出了采用证据理论的一种新方法,解决了由于专家意见具有发散性和冲突性而导致的意见难以合成的问题．通过引入和分析不确定度的概念和含义,给出新的不确定度的计算方法,有效地解决了评价中的证据冲突问题．最后通过一个算例给出了应用的步骤和方法．     

基于云模型的地空导弹武器假目标伪装效果评价

地空导弹武器假目标伪装效果评价中定性指标具有不确定性,云模型理论是定性概念与其定量表示之间的不确定性转换的数学工具,因此在构建地空导弹假目标伪装效果评价指标体系的基础上,提出基于云模型的假目标伪装效果评价方法,以解决评价指标的不确定性问题．通过实例的计算结果,验证了基于云模型的评价方法的可行性．研究结论表明应用云模型的评价结果具有直观性和科学性,该方法对伪装评价研究有一定的参考价值．     

Russia,America and missile defense

Russia has sharply objected to US plans for ballistic missile defense. The Russian official explanation is that the real purpose of the US missile defense plan is to make it impossible for Russia to retaliate against a US nuclear (or massive conventional) attack, thus making Russia subject to military blackmail by the US. The Russian response has been the result of a sum total of various factors, mostly political and cultural, while the technical capabilities of the proposed system have played a secondary role.