基于改进萤火虫优化算法的BP神经网络目标群威胁判断

以舰艇防空作战目标选择决策和规划需求为背景,针对萤火虫算法求解精度不高且收敛速度较慢的问题,提出可动态调整步长的改进萤火虫优化算法。在改进萤火虫优化算法的基础上,建立基于改进萤火虫优化算法的BP神经网络目标群威胁判断结构模型。通过改进萤火虫算法优化BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值,能够更好地预测测试集。实验结果表明,该方法可快速、准确地实现目标群威胁判断。     

大负载火箭炮射击诸元补偿方法

某多管火箭炮由于加工工艺存在炮管弹性变形和炮身偏移,同时在发射过程中存在射击变位,这些都严重影响了火箭炮的射击精度,为了提高射击精度,提出了一种对射击诸元进行修正的方法,包括炮管弹性变形、炮身偏移和射击变位等修正,修正之后保证了操瞄调炮精度控制在1 mil之内,经射击定型试验表明了该方法的有效性,同时该方法可用于其他身管武器射击诸元的修正。     

南宋四川山地滨江防卫型城池营建研究——以重庆多功城为例

南宋抗蒙斗争时期,四川军民凭借严密的山地滨江网状防御体系成功地抵御了蒙军长达数十年的进攻。为分析、总结这一体系中山地滨江防卫型城池的营建特征,以其中一个重要城池——重庆多功城为代表,从历史沿革、选址、地形地貌、平面布局、周边道路、环境和主要建筑特征等方面进行分析,并结合相关史书资料和其他城池研究成果,总结出南宋四川山地滨江防卫型城池的营建特征:选址依山临水,择险而立;防御设施完善坚固;后勤保障得力。     

新型舰炮使用测速雷达后观测距离偏差射击校正方法

针对测速雷达精确校正初速后的观测距离偏差校正方法进行研究,建立不同校正方法校正量计算模型,对比分析不同校正方法校正精度,得出了使用测速雷达精确校正初速后观测距离偏差应采用折合空气密度校正精度高的结论,为中大口径舰炮部队作战与训练和装备的研制改进提供依据。     

海军装备体系技术构成探析

在剖析海军装备体系与体系技术概念的基础上,分析了海军装备体系技术的特点与作用,提出了海军装备体系技术的基本构成,为海军装备体系技术的应用研究提供理论指导。     

我国军民融合深度发展的内涵研究

如何理解军民融合深度发展,做好军民融合这篇大文章,各方面尚未形成统一共识。文章从历史沿革角度回顾分析了我国军民融合演变的过程、民融合深度发展的内涵,并在此基础上对当前存在的主要矛盾进行了研究总结,从国家战略部署层面提出了下一步发展建议。     

Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach

Abstract

We use the k-th-order nonparametric causality test at monthly frequency over the period of 1985:1 to 2016:06 to analyze whether geopolitical risks can predict movements in stock returns and volatility of 24 global defense firms. The nonparametric approach controls for the existing misspecification of a linear framework of causality, and hence, the mild evidence of causality obtained under the standard Granger tests cannot be relied upon. When we apply the nonparametric test, we find that there is no evidence of predictability of stock returns of these defense companies emanating from the geopolitical risk measure. However, the geopolitical risk index does predict realized volatility in 50% of the companies. Our results indicate that while global geopolitical events over a period of time is less likely to predict returns, such global risks are more inclined in affecting future risk profile of defense firms.     

CIVIL SOCIETY AND VIOLENCE—HOW TO MANAGE IN THE TOWNSHIPS WITHOUT THE ARMY

This article discusses the validity of national security threats in Botswana and whether they justified the creation of the Directorate of Intelligence and Security Services (DISS), which has been controversial since its formation. Since its inception in 2008, the DISS has been accused of many human rights violations and politicisation. Without fully deliberating on the basis for its creation, some discourses have focused on the politicised operations without relation to what the DISS is supposed to be doing. The author works under the assumption that debates should be shaped by whether it was necessary to create the DISS, and, if so, how we can shape and steer debates on its oversight, management, reform and operations. This article argues that despite the politicisation of the DISS, Botswana's national security threats are both real and imagined; and that domestic threats to national security have moved from the conceptual ‘imagined’ category to the ‘real’. However, that in itself did not warrant the design and mandate of the DISS, and the article argues that it was external threats that really warranted the creation of a civilian intelligence agency. The article concludes that Botswana faces a plethora of external security threats – traditional and non-traditional – that warranted the creation and continuance of the DISS.     

South Africa's arsenal of terrorism legislation

After only ten years in existence, the African Union (AU) has already made its mark on the landscape of peace and security in Africa. This paper seeks to explore the relationship between the AU's leading collaborative interstate security policy, the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), and sustainable peace in the Horn of Africa. It examines four countries – Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Kenya – and how engaging with the APSA through early warning systems can contribute to developing the elements necessary for sustainable peace, namely regional stability, conflict management, and good governance.     

Piracy,state capacity and root causes

By comparing the Somali experience of piracy with the emerging situation in the Gulf of Guinea, I show that increases in the enforcement aspects of state capacity in the Gulf of Guinea states are necessary but not sufficient tools to combat the emergence, growth, and institutionalisation of piracy. Such tools would require state-building measures that would minimise the incentives of individuals to join piracy organisations and they would have to effectively deal with youth unemployment, income inequality, and environmental degradation.