Counterinsurgency force ratio: strategic utility or nominal necessity

As a consequence of intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan, force ratio for counterinsurgency (COIN) has come under increased scrutiny. Reduced to its essence, the issue is simply, ‘How many troops does it take to get the job done?’ This answer has been sought by the US military, academia, and think tanks. There have been numerous responses, culminating in several ‘plug-and-play’ equations for minimum force ratios in COIN operations. Due to the impossibility of determining precisely how many insurgent forces there are, it has become common to base force ratios on the population of the country. In the realm of policy, the question above is posed as, ‘How many of our troops does it take to get the job done?’     

基于插件技术的人工免疫智能空间优化平台研究

采用人工智能方法求解空间优化问题已成为当前地理学研究领域的热点之一。研究目的在于通过设计一个开放的、可扩展的人工免疫空间优化模型框架,开发基于插件技术的优化工具软件,丰富空间优化决策支持的方法和技术体系。研究从空间优化问题的基本特点和计算需求出发,定义了面向空间优化问题求解的克隆选择优化模型框架。在此基础上,采用"插件-宿主平台"结构设计了人工免疫智能空间优化平台的总体架构,定义免疫算子插件与空间优化问题应用插件开发机制。实验结果表明,平台的架构和功能设计充分考虑了计算平台的开放性和扩展性,通过平台标准接口的功能扩展可实现对不同类型空间优化问题的求解。空间优化问题研究者或政府决策部门无需关系人工免疫优化方法的具体内涵即可基于本平台完成其具体空间优化决策支持任务。     

自补偿液体静压精密转台轴承设计与实验

设计了一种用于精密转台的新型自补偿圆锥形液体静压轴承,并完成了轴承的制造与性能测试。采用流量平衡原理推导了轴承设计公式,得到了轴向和径向的最优刚度及其优化条件,计入制造误差对轴承承载性能进行了仿真,并测试了轴承的刚度和回转精度。结果表明:轴承刚度受到节流间隙与承载间隙的流阻比以及油腔间内流系数影响,流阻比存在最优值,而内流系数越小,对刚度越有利;计入制造误差的仿真模型能够有效预测轴承刚度范围。     

无人机集群作战概念及关键技术分析

无人机集群作战正在从概念走向雏形.文章总结了国外无人机集群作战概念的发展,分析了无人机集群作战的主要关键技术,包括大规模无人机管理与控制、多无人机自主编队飞行、集群感知与态势共享、集群突防与攻击、集群作战任务控制站等技术,并展望了未来无人机集群协同搜索、协同干扰、协同攻击、协同察/打、集群对抗等作战应用.     

国防基础研究的管理模式

国防基础研究是国防科技创新的源头和武器装备可持续发展的重要保障.文章分析了国防基础研究的内涵及规律,在此基础上有针对性地研究了国防基础研究实施中的管理模式问题,包括主管部门、承研主体、第三方监督评价等,以期为国防基础研究的健康可持续发展提供参考.     

Transnational terrorism as a spillover of domestic disputes in other countries

This paper models transnational terrorism as a three‐way strategic interaction involving a government that faces armed opposition at home, which may spill over in the form of acts of terrorism by the state's opponents against the government's external sponsor. The external sponsor also utilises deterrence against potential terrorists, which only lowers terrorism if terrorists are not intrinsically motivated by a deep‐seated sense of humiliation. The model highlights the importance of intrinsic motivation. A rise in the external power's preference for deterrence against terrorism may backfire in these circumstances. Increases in the government's military efficiency against the rebels, who are also terrorists against the government's sponsor, raises overall levels of violence.     

BUTTER,GUNS AND ICE‐CREAM THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA

This paper is intended to complement the existing literature on civil wars. First, it presents a simple theoretical model of conflict that defines a two‐sector economy. In a contested sector, two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice‐cream’. Following the theoretical insights the empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between civil wars and different sectors of the economy. In particular, a panel probit specification shows that the incidence of a civil war decreases in the size of manufacturing sector.     

Life cycle costs for decision support ‐ a study of the various life cycle costs used at different levels of defence policy and management∗

Debates on many aspects of defence economics ‐ on the scale of defence expenditure, on the allocation of that expenditure to various military capabilities, and on the selection of equipment offering the best value for money ‐ are bedevilled by misunderstandings and misconceptions about the costs of defence equipment. This paper seeks to improve understanding of defence equipment costs by defining a hierarchy of defence equipment within which the direct and indirect life cycle costs of defence equipment may be allocated at different levels. Having reviewed the direct and indirect components of the life cycle cost, this paper then shows how different costing studies for different purposes require different approaches to life cycle costing, and that there is no unique life cycle cost which can be assigned to one particular item of defence equipment. There is instead a range oflife cycle costs, each of which is appropriate for a particular study, and it is important that a quoted cost of an item of defence equipment should be used only in the pertinent circumstances. The paper is written from a UK perspective and accordingly uses British nomenclature, but its principles should be relevant to defence cost studies in other nations.     

基于秘密共享的卫星网络组密钥管理方案

针对卫星网络组密钥管理的重要性,提出了一个可认证的基于门限秘密共享的组密钥管理方案．结合卫星网络的动态拓扑结构特点,将地面站作为组成员的身份注册中心,以实现对组成员的身份认证,确保节点的合法性．为了提高组密钥的生成效率,选取≠一1颗可见时间长的卫星构建组密钥份额分发中心,降低了组密钥联合生成过程中的通信量．组密钥协商无需安全信道,节省了系统资源．安全性及性能分析表明,该方案不仅具有较强的安全性,而且还具有计算和通信量小的优点．参数分析表明,门限值k与组密钥更新周期T是影响方案安全性的2个重要因子．     

某型炮射导弹工况射击时目标丢失现象分析

某型炮射导弹在定型试验期间出现瞄准线跳动、工作指示灯反复熄灭、目标丢失的现象,致使炮射导弹无法正常工作.造成制导火控系统工况转换的原因较多,为了快速查明该故障原因,利用模糊综合评判方法,较为准确地实现故障定位,通过后续试验数据结果证明,该方法有效可靠,对炮射导弹定型试验期间故障诊断具有积极的参考价值.