海上补给仿真训练系统中高架索形态模型研究

实景物理模型的开发是整个海上补给仿真训练系统的重点与难点,而高架索物理形态模型又是整个实景物理模型开发的核心.应用面向对象的建模方法,对横向干货补给过程中各阶段高架索所涉及的物理行为模型:悬链线计算模块、恒张力补偿阶段高架索形状计算模块、集中载荷作用高架索形状计算模块、卸载货物阶段高架索模块、架索演示阶段计算模块和装备撤出演示模块进行研究,从而建立海上补给仿真训练高架索形态模型,为模拟仿真训练的开发奠定了坚实的数学基础.     

European defence industry consolidation and domestic procurement bias

How have European cross-border defence industrial mergers and acquisitions affected domestic procurement bias among the major EU powers? This article departs from the findings of Andrew Moravcsik more than two decades ago suggesting that major West European states had no ingrained preferences for defence industrial autarchy. When cross-national armament projects were derailed, this could be attributed to political efforts of national defence industrial champions favouring purely domestic projects. As former national champions join pan-European defence groups, their preferences are likely modified. Does this shift procurement towards non-European “off-the-shelf” solutions which, according to Moravcsik, are favoured by defence departments? Or does it give impetus to a stronger preference for European as opposed to domestic systems? In this article, procurement patterns in the aftermath of cross-border defence industry consolidation will be analysed. Procurement bias is assessed in two industry segments characterised by pervasive consolidation.     

子弹均匀散布子母弹最有利火力分配方法

在将子弹均匀散布的椭圆区域等效转换为矩形区域的基础上,建立了适宽射向射击子母弹对矩形目标毁伤全概率计算的数学模型。通过函数转换和泛函分析给出了子弹均匀散布子母弹理想射击密度,得到了理想射击密度下对目标的毁伤概率计算公式。讨论了最有利火力分配方式的确定方法,给出了最优射向间隔和表尺差的计算公式,为便于实际应用,给出了最优火力分配计算中所需的3个参数的近似计算公式,最后给出了应用算例。     

我国东部沿海海上突出治安问题原因与对策

随着改革开放和经济建设的深入发展,我国东部沿海海上旅游、海上捕捞、养殖生产、贸易等经济活动日益扩大。这一方面带来了区域经济的大发展,另一方面也给海上治安和海洋管理带来了诸多新问题。为此,各相关部门应积极转变执法观念;建立高效、规范的海上防控体系;加强渔政建设,促进渔政管理体制的改革。从根本上预防和制止海上治安违法行为,维护上述海域的安全与稳定,促进该海域经济的可持续发展。     

A model to design recreational boat mooring fields

This article develops a mathematical model and heuristic algorithm to design recreational boating mooring fields. The boating industry is important to the Florida economy, and boat storage is becoming a concern among those in the industry. The mooring field design problem is formulated to maximize the total number of boat feet moored in the mooring field. In the model, we allow two adjacent moorings to overlap, which introduces a risk that under certain conditions the boats on these moorings could contact each other. We identify the conditions when contact is possible and quantify the probability of contact. The mooring field design problem is formulated as a nonlinear mixed‐integer programming problem. To solve the problem, we decompose it into two separate models, a mooring radii assignment model and a mooring layout model, which are solved sequentially. The first is solved via exhaustive enumeration and the second via a depth‐first search algorithm. Two actual mooring fields are evaluated, and in both cases our model leads to better layouts than ones experts developed manually. The mooring field design model rationalizes the mooring field design and shows that in one case by increasing the risk from 0 to 1%, the mooring efficiency increases from 74.8% to 96.2%. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Evergreening and operational risk under price competition

“Evergreening” is a strategy wherein an innovative pharmaceutical firm introduces an upgrade of its current product when the patent on this product expires. The upgrade is introduced with a new patent and is designed to counter competition from generic manufacturers that seek to imitate the firm's existing product. However, this process is fraught with uncertainty because the upgrade is subject to stringent guidelines and faces approval risk. Thus, an incumbent firm has to make an upfront production capacity investment without clarity on whether the upgrade will reach the market. This uncertainty may also affect the capacity investment of a competing manufacturer who introduces a generic version of the incumbent's existing product but whose market demand depends on the success or failure of the upgrade. We analyze a game where capacity investment occurs before uncertainty resolution and firms compete on prices thereafter. Capacity considerations that arise due to demand uncertainty introduce new factors into the evergreening decision. Equilibrium analysis reveals that the upgrade's estimated approval probability needs to exceed a threshold for the incumbent to invest in evergreening. This threshold for evergreening increases as the intensity of competition in the generic market increases. If evergreening is optimal, the incumbent's capacity investment is either decreasing or nonmonotonic with respect to low end market competition depending on whether the level of product improvement in the upgrade is low or high. If the entrant faces a capacity constraint, then the probability threshold for evergreening is higher than the case where the entrant is not capacity constrained. Finally, by incorporating the risk‐return trade‐off that the incumbent faces in terms of the level of product improvement versus the upgrade success probability, we can characterize policy for a regulator. We show that the introduction of capacity considerations may maximize market coverage and/or social surplus at incremental levels of product improvement in the upgrade. This is contrary to the prevalent view of regulators who seek to curtail evergreening involving incremental product improvement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 71–89, 2016     

Innovation in China’s Defense Technology Base: Foreign Technology and Military Capabilities

ABSTRACT

China’s defense science, technology, and industrial system has been undergoing a far-reaching transformation over the past two decades and the single biggest factor behind this turnaround is the role of external technology and knowledge transfers and the defense industry’s improving ability to absorb these inputs and convert into localized output. China is pursuing an intensive campaign to obtain defense and dual-use civil–military foreign technology transfers using a wide variety of means, which is explored in this article.     

高海情对反导舰炮命中概率的影响

根据某型反导舰炮配装的舰船摇摆特性及海浪运动数学模型,首先模拟得到高海情舰船摇摆趋势图;然后分析了高海情对反导舰炮射击诸元的影响;其次,采用变换抽样法在高海情射击诸元变化范围内随机产生方位角和高低角增量,通过解6自由度弹道方程计算方位角和高低角增量概率误差,再根据概率误差解算高海情条件下系统的命中概率;最后,对大量的仿真计算结果进行统计分析,得出了具有实用价值的结论,为靶场试验及系统精度设计提供参考。     

一种新的动态分形海面模型及其电磁散射统计特性研究

给出了一种更符合海面实际情况的基于未充分发展海谱的分形海面模型(NDFFM),使用双尺度法计算了NDFFM海面的后向散射截面,并研究了动态散射场幅值分布。结果表明在大特征斜率下散射场服从K分布,随着特征斜率的下降,散射场分布向瑞利分布退化。最后将计算数据与传统的分形模型和实测雷达数据进行比对,证明了该模型的准确性和有效性。     

深海安全问题的认识思考

贯彻落实总体国家安全观,既需关注传统领域安全,又需关注新兴领域安全.深海作为新兴战略领域,研究深海安全意义重大.从安全研究的视角出发,初步思考了深海开发建设过程中需要关注的几个安全问题,可为深海安全深化研究提供支撑,希望引发更多的人去关注深海安全,促进深海开发与深海安全和谐发展.