军民融合产业内涵及范畴

发展军民融合产业是各级政府落实军民融合发展国家战略的重要抓手之一。针对军民融合产业界定不清等问题,从理论研究和实践工作层面梳理既有观点及演变趋势,形成对军民融合产业的客观认识。在此基础上,剖析军民融合产业的属性特征,从指导实践工作角度出发提出三种界定军民融合产业范畴及相关统计工作的合理化思路,并提出建立两级联动工作机制、开展国家工业基础中国防科研生产能力普查工作、试点开展军民融合产业分类标准及指标体系建设工作、加强军民融合产业统计数据质量监测等政策建议。     

Classical geopolitics,realism and the balance of power theory

Since the end of World War II, classical geopolitics as a particular form of realism has been disengaged from the development of mainstream realist theories. This disengagement has not only concealed the value of classical geopolitics as a framework of analysis for policy and strategy, but also created an increasing rift between theory and policy in contemporary realist theories. This paper seeks to reengage classical geopolitics with mainstream realist theories by clarifying its realist traits and analytical characteristics, (re)stating its core propositions and probing into its potential contribution to the development of mainstream realist theories. This paper contends that classical geopolitics, while having a distinctive pedigree, can arguably be considered an integral part of the family of realist theories in view of its basic theoretical assumptions concerning international anarchy, the unit of analysis and power politics. As a framework of analysis, classical geopolitics incorporates three interrelated strategic propositions. Those three propositions not only constitute the theoretical core of classical geopolitics, but also manifest a peculiar balance-of-power conception that is essentially distinct from those proposed by mainstream realist theories. This paper argues that those three propositions combined promise to fill in prominent lacuna in the balance-of-power research programme, and also have significant implications for contemporary world politics.     

在线并列生产装置固有火灾危险度评估

石油化工生产工艺装置复杂 ,工艺控制参数苛刻 ,处理的物料大都具有易燃易爆等特殊的危险性。针对石化生产装置的共同特点 ,通过三套在线并列存在的炼油生产装置 ,从物料特性、工艺装置、工艺控制参数、操作控制等方面综合分析其火灾危险因素 ,并采用美国道化学公司火灾、爆炸危险指数评价法评估装置间的固有火灾危险 ,为消防安全设施的配置以及灭火预案的制定提供依据。     

舰载雷达对水面目标发现概率研究

为了提高舰载雷达的作战效能,研究了舰载雷达发现水面目标的概率模型,采用了数学建模方法,结合舰载雷达发现目标接收机输入端的信噪比,利用发现距离与发现概率之间的关系,建立了舰载雷达发现水面目标的概率模型,对于提高舰载雷达信息作战能力具有实践意义。     

基于约束条件的海上机动目标位置长期预测模型

海上目标运动模型已经有很多,但是对海上机动目标位置的长期预测问题还没有得到很好的解决。灰色系统理论是解决时间序列问题的有效工具,将其与海上机动目标的运动特点相结合,可以较准确地预测海上机动目标在未来较长时期内的位置分布,为引导卫星搜索海上机动目标提供理论依据。     

基于AIS的对海雷达多目标联合误差估计方法

提出了一种基于AIS的对海警戒雷达多目标联合误差估计方法,该方法以高精度AIS提供的目标信息为目标真值,对雷达进行误差估计。利用系统积累的多目标航迹信息,首先进行目标粗关联,将航迹信息进行时空对准后产生误差序列,通过单目标误差序列统计信息进行异常值的筛选,再通过多目标误差序列进行错误关联目标的检验,最终对剩余误差序列进行误差估计。通过实测数据和实际应用证明,该方法估计的雷达误差较准确,用估计结果对雷达误差进行校准后可有效减小对海雷达的系统误差。     

湖南国防科技工业军民融合深度发展研究

推动军民融合深度发展,是党的十八届三中全会提出的明确要求,也是当前和今后一段时期国防科技工业一项重大战略任务。作为传统的制造业大省和军工大省,湖南省推动军民融合已具备较好的"产学研"基础。为促进湖南国防科技工业军民融合深度发展,紧贴制造强省战略,分析了湖南国防科技工业军民融合深度发展面临的形势要求,阐述了湖南国防科技工业军民融合深度发展的重点领域,给出了推动湖南国防科技工业军民融合深度发展的有效途径。     

军民融合产业创新集群的形成

在军民融合发展战略与创新驱动发展战略深入推进进程中,军民融合产业创新集群成为军民融合产业发展的重要创新形式,其形成问题研究更是对其发展与演化具有重要影响。以军民融合产业创新集群的内涵着手,通过刺激—反应模型与演化博弈模型,分析其形成过程与促进措施。研究表明,军民融合产业创新集群作为复杂适应系统,创新主体的适应性能力及其内在关系是集群形成的关键所在;为使合作创新行为成为演化博弈的稳定策略,从合作创新能力系数和合作创新成本、拥有的创新资源以及政府资金支持三个方面剖析集群形成的促进作用,对军民融合产业创新集群的发展与演化研究奠定基础。     

A survey of performance issues in defence innovation

This article reviews innovation processes in defence. It analyses the way and the context under which these processes are carried out. The article covers the features of defence goods with impact on innovation, the development of a new good, the institutional arrangements that support these processes and the effect of innovation on industrial market. The analysis helps to identify the causes of facts observed in practice, such as poor performance in terms of product quality, cost or delivery time, as well as to assess potential remedies. Some policy implications, which can be derived from this analysis, are finally outlined.     

煤化工火灾爆炸事故原因调查

煤化工作为能源战略发展深加工项目,近几年发展很快也导致火灾爆炸事故频发,造成的损失非常巨大,火灾调查工作非常繁重复杂.从煤化工火灾危险性入手,从火灾调查的组织指挥、现场调查访问、现场勘验分析、综合分析等方面详细论述了煤化工火灾爆炸事故的原因调查.