基于敌后侦察与诱骗博弈的远程火力打击战法*

对敌后侦察反军事诱骗的远程火力打击战法的定量分析是战役研究中尚未解决的关键问题之一,根据信息作战原理,运用仿真和统计学分析的混合方法,建立基于概率的二人非零和(TPNZS)非合作博弈模型,设计基于侦察与诱骗博弈的远程火力打击战法,定量分析我方的敌后侦察和敌方的军事诱骗对远程信息与火力联合打击能力的影响,并对一个典型实例的初步试验及分析结果表明:与敌后侦察和军事诱骗有关的正确识别目标和错误识别目标的概率以及远程火力命中目标的概率是评估远程信息与火力联合打击能力的关键,而对评估结果进行博弈分析则是远程火力打击战法设计的关键,用识别正确目标和错误目标能力以及远程火力命中目标能力描述的基于敌后侦察与诱骗博弈的远程火力最优打击战法为Δ*=(0,Δ2*,1-Δ2*)=(0.0000,0.7727,0.2273),被打击方对远程火力打击的最优战法为π*=(π1*,0,1-π1*)=(0.8511,0.0000,0.1489)。     

基于约束条件的海上机动目标位置长期预测模型

海上目标运动模型已经有很多,但是对海上机动目标位置的长期预测问题还没有得到很好的解决。灰色系统理论是解决时间序列问题的有效工具,将其与海上机动目标的运动特点相结合,可以较准确地预测海上机动目标在未来较长时期内的位置分布,为引导卫星搜索海上机动目标提供理论依据。     

攻击主动防御飞行器的微分对策制导律

基于微分对策理论设计了躲避护卫弹的同时攻击飞行器的制导律。根据传统的性能指标推导了该场景的微分对策制导律,并且根据权重系数的取值定义了三种制导律:最优追赶制导律、逃脱-追赶制导律和复合制导律。最优追赶制导律容易被护卫弹拦截,逃脱-追赶制导律容易造成导弹和飞行器的零控脱靶量急剧增大而使得攻击失败,复合制导律很难选择合适的权重系数。针对以上不足,提出了两种改进的制导律,并对该两种制导律的适用情况进行了分析。通过非线性模型仿真,验证了这两种方法的可行性。该两种制导律目的性强,攻击导弹可以躲避护卫弹进而攻击飞行器。     

A model of supply-chain decisions for resource sharing with an application to ventilator allocation to combat COVID-19

We present a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory for a central agency are to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by FEMA to different U.S. states. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20 000 ventilators (as of March 23, 2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs in slightly above average demand scenarios. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In a severe case, where the demand is concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval and states are not willing to share their stockpile of ventilators, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (until May 31, 2020) is about 232 000 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 17 200 ventilators on April 19, 2020. Results are also reported for a worst-case where the demand is at the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval. An important finding of this study is that a central agency (FEMA) can act as a coordinator for sharing critical resources that are in short supply over time to add efficiency in the system. Moreover, through properly managing risk-aversion of different entities (states) additional efficiency can be gained. An additional implication is that ramping up production early in the planning cycle allows to reduce shortfall significantly. An optimal timing of this production ramp-up consideration can be based on a cost-benefit analysis.     

Modeling and solution for the ship stowage planning problem of coils in the steel industry

We consider a ship stowage planning problem where steel coils with known destination ports are to be loaded onto a ship. The coils are to be stowed on the ship in rows. Due to their heavy weight and cylindrical shape, coils can be stowed in at most two levels. Different from stowage problems in previous studies, in this problem there are no fixed positions on the ship for the coils due to their different sizes. At a destination port, if a coil to be unloaded is not at a top position, those blocking it need to be shuffled. In addition, the stability of ship has to be maintained after unloading at each destination port. The objective for the stowage planning problem is to minimize a combination of ship instability throughout the entire voyage, the shuffles needed for unloading at the destination ports, and the dispersion of coils to be unloaded at the same destination port. We formulate the problem as a novel mixed integer linear programming model. Several valid inequalities are derived to help reducing solution time. A tabu search (TS) algorithm is developed for the problem with the initial solution generated using a construction heuristic. To evaluate the proposed TS algorithm, numerical experiments are carried out on problem instances of three different scales by comparing it with a model‐based decomposition heuristic, the classic TS algorithm, the particle swarm optimization algorithm, and the manual method used in practice. The results show that for small problems, the proposed algorithm can generate optimal solutions. For medium and large practical problems, the proposed algorithm outperforms other methods. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 564–581, 2015     

控制分配在平流层飞艇姿态控制中的应用

针对平流层飞艇一般采用多控制机构的特点,将广义逆控制分配方法应用到飞艇姿态控制系统中,并根据飞艇控制机构特性采用了加权伪逆控制分配算法。飞艇姿态控制仿真结果表明:设计的控制分配方法可以有效实现多控制机构的协调操纵,对姿态角控制效果良好,避免了单一操纵舵面过早进入饱和状态的情况;合理调整控制分配权值可减少能量损耗,增强实时性,便于工程实现。     

改进蚁群算法在P2P网络资源搜索中的应用

针对P2P网络搜索算法中冗余查询消息过多,资源搜索效率低的问题,提出了基于改进蚁群算法的P2P资源搜索算法,算法中在选择邻节点查询时,综合考虑到本地资源情况、邻节点资源情况、邻节点资源相似度等因素,尽量避开了资源搜索中的恶意节点,并改进了基本蚁群算法的状态转移规则,从而避免了查询消息的盲目发送。仿真实验表明,与传统资源搜索算法K-radom-walks和Flooding相比,该算法在搜索命中率和带宽利用率方面有明显提高。     

搜索路径给定时的搜索对策问题及其应用

搜索路径给定时的最优搜索方案问题,也可以理解为是关于搜索者和目标的二人对策问题,主要讨论了当搜索路径给定时的单个搜索者和单个目标的搜索对策问题。首先根据问题的特点,利用动态规划和迭代的方法,确定关于目标逃逸路径混合策略的最优分区,证明该分区是多面体凸集;针对目标不同逃逸路径的分区,求出搜索者的最大期望收益,再将问题转化为二人有限零和对策,计算出搜索者的支付矩阵,确定最优搜索策略。最后结合海军护航行动,对我舰载直升机搜索小型海盗船进行分析和计算,说明搜索路径给定时的最优搜索对策对于双方的资源分配和提高搜索效率具有一定的应用价值。     

云平台上基于关键路径截取的有向无环图应用调度算法

针对云平台上有向无环图科学应用执行容易产生虚拟机资源过剩、资源使用率低及费用虚高的问题,给出一种基于关键路径截取的有向无环图应用调度算法。该算法采取关键路径截取技术,循环找出最晚完成的未分配任务,从该任务出发,在所有未分配任务构成的图中找出最大连通子图,并计算该子图的关键路径,然后将关键路径上的任务集调度到性能匹配的虚拟机上执行;同时通过任务回填技术充分利用虚拟机的空闲时间槽,提高资源使用率。实验结果表明,在云计算平台上,该算法不仅能够在截止时间内完成有向无环图科学应用,而且可以提高资源使用率,有效减少完成该应用所需整体费用。     

军民融合产业创新集群的形成

在军民融合发展战略与创新驱动发展战略深入推进进程中,军民融合产业创新集群成为军民融合产业发展的重要创新形式,其形成问题研究更是对其发展与演化具有重要影响。以军民融合产业创新集群的内涵着手,通过刺激—反应模型与演化博弈模型,分析其形成过程与促进措施。研究表明,军民融合产业创新集群作为复杂适应系统,创新主体的适应性能力及其内在关系是集群形成的关键所在;为使合作创新行为成为演化博弈的稳定策略,从合作创新能力系数和合作创新成本、拥有的创新资源以及政府资金支持三个方面剖析集群形成的促进作用,对军民融合产业创新集群的发展与演化研究奠定基础。