Development programs for one‐shot systems using multiple‐state design reliability models

Design reliability at the beginning of a product development program is typically low, and development costs can account for a large proportion of total product cost. We consider how to conduct development programs (series of tests and redesigns) for one‐shot systems (which are destroyed at first use or during testing). In rough terms, our aim is to both achieve high final design reliability and spend as little of a fixed budget as possible on development. We employ multiple‐state reliability models. Dynamic programming is used to identify a best test‐and‐redesign strategy and is shown to be presently computationally feasible for at least 5‐state models. Our analysis is flexible enough to allow for the accelerated stress testing needed in the case of ultra‐high reliability requirements, where testing otherwise provides little information on design reliability change. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

新疆基层文化建设现状与发展对策

新疆基层文化建设已经取得了很大成绩,但仍存在文化基础设施落后,基层文化单位工作条件差,公共文化服务缺乏财政保障,基层文化工作队伍不健全等问题。发展新疆基层文化建设必须完善基础设施建设,不断创新文化内容和形式,进一步落实文化经济政策,完善公共文化服务体系,加强基层文化队伍建设,争取优惠政策解决新疆农村文化发展面临的突出问题。     

Can Afghanistan avoid the Natural Resource Curse?

Recent discoveries of significant mineral deposits offer Afghanistan the opportunity to attain a level of economic development sufficient to stabilize that country's volatile security situation while providing Afghans with a reasonable standard of living. Much, however, depends on whether Afghanistan can avoid the “Natural Resource Curse,” an inter-related set of economic and social pathologies that often bedevil resource-endowed countries. In this article, the authors describe the Natural Resource Curse, evaluate the obstacles it raises for Afghan economic development, and offer a strategy to minimize the risks Afghanistan faces in its efforts to exploit its mineral wealth for the benefit of the population.     

装备保障需求开发方法

为解决装备保障需求开发规范化的问题,界定了装备保障需求的内涵,分析了装备保障需求开发的目标,提出了＂元任务＂的概念,阐述了＂任务确认-能力集成-能力开发＂的装备保障需求开发方法,并通过实例分析验证了方法的有效性,对于规范装备保障需求描述形式和完善装备保障需求开发机制具有一定的参考价值。     

近空间飞行器关键技术及其发展趋势分析

未来一体化联合作战将具有陆、海、空、天、临“五维一体”的特点,临近空间以其在信息支援与远程快速投送两方面的优势在基于信息系统的体系作战中具有重要的战略地位.从技术层面概括了临近空间飞行器的最新进展,重点分析了其关键技术与发展趋势,对其发展提出了几点看法.     

便携式红外目标模拟器的设计

针对红外型空空导弹环境试验及外场试验的要求,研制了专门的便携式目标模拟器用于配合检测导弹的截获、跟踪等总体性能。该目标模拟器设计为头罩式结构,采用微型黑体作为红外光学系统光源,具有连续、稳定、可调的辐射特性;光学系统通过由PLC控制的步进电机带动,可以实现红外目标的往返、达位运动,用来作为导弹总体性能测试时的目标源使用。详细介绍了该目标模拟器的结构、功能、特点及其系统设计方案,经实际使用,效果良好。     

台湾制导武器发展剖析

台湾通过军购、仿制与自主研制 3种模式发展导弹武器,已拼凑起庞杂的导弹武器装备,并随着装备战略的变化,正在重点发展中远程精确打击能力。     

高校科研工作中落实科学发展观的思考

科研管理工作要严格遵循科学发展观,在科研工作中坚持以人为本,树立人才是第一资源的思想,转变科研管理重物轻人的观念,努力营造宽松宽容的学术环境。正确理解科研工作在高校发展中的地位和作用,处理好科研与教学的关系、基础科研与应用科研之间的关系、自然科学与哲学社会科学之间的关系。建立健全科学、合理的科研工作评价机制。     

Markets for surplus components with a strategic supplier

We study markets for surplus components, which allow manufacturers with excess component inventory to sell to firms with a shortage. Recent developments in internet commerce have the potential to greatly increase the efficiency of such markets. We develop a one‐period model in which a monopolist supplier sells to a number of independent manufacturers who are uncertain about demand for final goods. After uncertainty is resolved, the manufacturers have the opportunity to trade. Because uncertainty is over demand functions, the model allows us to endogenize both the price of final goods and the price of components in wholesale and surplus markets. We derive conditions on demand uncertainty that determine whether a surplus market will increase or decrease supplier profits. Increased costs of transacting on the surplus market may benefit manufacturers, because of the impact of these costs on the supplier's pricing power. The surplus market can decrease overall efficiency of the supply chain, since the benefit of better allocation of components may be outweighed by an increased double‐marginalization effect. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

以军民融合式发展思想为指导完善文职人员制度

分析了非现役文职人员制度实行的时代背景、目前存在的主要问题以及解决对策,指出文职人员制度是我军顺应整体社会转型而实行的重大改革,是军民融合式发展思想的重要体现,完善的政策和军地双方的协调沟通,直接关系到这一改革的成败。