National security,military spending and the business cycle

This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model where national security is an argument in the agent’s utility function and the government chooses optimally the level of military spending to maximize social welfare. National defense depends on military expenditure and on the strategic environment reflecting a potential hostile external threat. We use aggregate data on consumption, investment, and military spending for the US economy to estimate the parameters of the model. Estimation results suggest that consumption and national defense are complements and that military spending variability is mainly explained by external threat shocks although it also depends on the macroeconomic conditions. We compute impulse response functions of the main macroeconomic variables to several shocks: a total factor productivity shock, a defense technology shock, and a strategic environment shock. Surprisingly, we find that the optimal response to an increase in the external threat (a worsening in the strategic environment) will rise output by reducing consumption and increasing investment.     

The lobbies’ network at the EU policy level: the case of security and defense

Lobbyists may not share the same interests, but they usually agree to form a link in a network which could eventually be used to spread information, to search for potential partners, to speak with one voice to decision makers. In other words, social links represent value for lobbyists because they may ultimately facilitate access. In this article, we explore the network of the Security and Defense lobbies in the EU and we describe its structure.     

重大自然灾害警卫任务的特点及措施——以四川抗震救灾警卫任务为例

以2008年四川“5·12”地震发生后的抗震救灾警卫任务为例,对重大自然灾害警卫任务的特点进行深入剖析,总结抗震救灾警卫工作经验。探求重大自然灾害警卫任务的方式方法,有利于更好地完成警卫任务。     

边防部队反恐怖作战心理训练问题初探

反恐作战心理训练是现代反恐怖作战行动中需要特别研究和解决的问题。阐述公安边防部队实施反恐作战心理训练的意义,分析公安边防部队反恐作战心理训练的基本方式方法,说明实施反恐心理训练必须注意把握的几个关键性问题。     

公安现役部队文化建设途径探析

加强公安现役部队文化建设,必须把握文化建设的方向,坚持社会主义核心价值体系,坚持抵制腐朽文化的影响和继承与创新的统一;必须抓住文化建设的关键环节,坚持以人为本,注重结合部队职能任务,建设学习型警营;必须筑牢文化建设的基础支撑,注重队伍建设,加大基础设施建设和制度建设。     

用科学发展观指导公安现役部队建设的几点思考

公安现役部队近几年的建设实践表明,只有牢固树立科学发展观,才能有效地推进部队班子建设及部队全面建设。     

要素分析法在边防情报识别中的应用

边防情报识别是边防情报工作的一项重要内容,要素分析法是当前公安边防情报识别的基本方法之一。结合公安边防情报的特殊性对要素分析法进行了探讨,旨在更好的运用要素分析法,为公安边防情报的识别提供理论参考,以促进公安边防情报识别工作的进一步发展。     

论岛屿应急救援体系的构建

为全面提高海南省岛屿应急救援能力,有效防范和应对灾害事故和突发事件,保护人民生命财产安全,提出建立岛屿应急救援体系的思路,构建岛屿应急救援专业队伍和多种形式消防队伍有效联动的综合性应急救援力量体系。     

试析世博安保中的军事“软实力”运用

世博会的圆满召开,不仅需要强大的军事“硬实力”作后盾,也需要军事“软实力”作支撑。本文从军事“软实力”的基本概念入手,将其分解为感化认同力、形象吸引力、心理威慑力等三个子要素;从各要素出发,以完成世博安保任务为着眼点,提出加强军事“软实力”的具体思路。     

基于前景理论的CGF Agent决策建模研究

前景理论(Prospect Theory,PT)描述了个体在不确定条件下的决策规律,较好地刻画了决策者的风险偏好。分析表明,PT在作战决策建模中具有一定的适用性和可行性。提出了一种基于PT的计算机生成兵力(Computer Generated Forces,CGF)Agent决策建模方法,给出了CGF Agent的建模框架,对CGF Agent决策过程中方案选择的具体步骤和算法进行了详细阐述。实验表明,所提出的方法在一定程度上提高了CGF Agent决策行为的真实性,证明了所提出方法的有效性。