复杂约束下的导弹作战任务规划模型和算法研究*

导弹作战任务规划是一个涉及时间、资源、质量和其他关系约束的复杂问题.首先通过定叉约束满足效用对基本约束满足模型进行了扩展,建立了导弹任务规划的约束满足优化模型.在此基础上,研究了任务规划模型求解的时间和效用传播算法,提出了基于综合效用的优化求解框架.该模型和求解框架易于解决具有多种约束因素的复杂问题,具有较好的通用性.通过定义软、硬约束效用,使得实际任务规划问题求解具有更好的灵活性.     

Fencing the bear? Explaining US foreign policy towards Russian interventions

Despite the burgeoning literature on Russia’s renewed power politics, little attention has been paid to the fact that US reactions towards Russia’s military interventions were all but coherent. The USA has chosen weak measures in Georgia in 2008 (shaming) compared to its assertive response in Ukraine in 2014 (sanctions, hard deterrence). This article assesses the explanatory power of neorealist, liberal and constructivist theories for the variation in US reactions towards Russian interventions in Georgia and Ukraine. Our argument is that the constructivist perspective explains the cases best as it highlights the power and communality of normative assessments. The Ukraine crisis was perceived by the USA as a violation of core international norms, especially the non-use of force and the principle of territorial integrity. Relevant international norm carriers shared this assessment of the conflict. In contrast, the perception of the Georgian war centred on the issue of democracy promotion. While democracy is an important aim of US foreign policy, it does not summon the same normative importance as general principles of international law. Furthermore, the perception of the Georgian war remained contested among Western allies, which decreased the communality of the normative assessment.     

The making of the EU Global Strategy

This article traces the evolution of the EU strategic reflection which culminated in the publication of the EU Global Strategy (EUGS) in June 2016. It explains the choices made by EU High Representative Federica Mogherini over this time period—including both the initial strategic assessment and the final EUGS. It provides a behind the scenes view on the players, the organization and the methods of work used to produce a strategic vision for the EU’s role in the world.     

Securitising humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction in Africa: A critical review of South Africa's new defence policy

The South African Defence Review 2014 is the country's new defence policy. The Review, which is expected to steer South African defence policymaking for the next few decades, discusses in detail the role of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) in peace missions in Africa and proposes the direct involvement of the country's soldiers in both military and civilian tasks, from peacekeeping to humanitarian assistance, post-conflict reconstruction and development. This paper contains a critical review of the Review with regard to South Africa's envisaged contribution to regional and continental peace and stability. It is argued that humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction should not be securitised and that the SANDF should only be tasked with peacekeeping and the establishment of stability and security in fragile in-conflict and post-conflict settings. The humanitarian work should be left to humanitarian and aid agencies, while reconstruction and development should be left to organisations such as the New Partnership for Africa's Development, continental and international development organisations, and local actors.     

The impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market in neighboring countries: empirical evidence from Jordan

This paper analyzes time-sensitive data on a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East. It aims to assess the impact of the steep influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan on the country’s labor market since the onset of the conflict in Syria (March 2011). As of August 2014, nearly three million registered Syrians have sought refuge in neighboring countries (Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey), according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Jordan and Lebanon are hosting the majority of them. This paper utilizes data regarding unemployment rates, employment rates, labor force participation, the number of refugees, and economic activity at the level of governorates. The vector autoregressive methodology is used to examine time series data from the most affected governorates in Jordan. The empirical results of Granger causality tests and impulse response functions show that there is no relationship between the influx of Syrian refugees and the Jordanian labor market. Our results are verified through a set of robustness checks.     

Hiding Death: Contextualizing the Dover Ban

Following the terrorist attacks against the US in 2001, the Bush administration reaffirmed the Dover ban, the policy that prohibited press coverage of military coffins arriving at Dover Air Force Base from conflicts abroad. Conventional wisdom holds that the Bush administration enforced the ban in the hope of maintaining public support for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. This understanding, though, is incomplete. If the Dover ban were enforced only in response to eroding public opinion, then other coalition states would have responded likewise to this shared incentive. I argue instead that maintaining public support is only one factor among many that led the US to uphold this policy. In addition to considering the influence of factors such as perceived media bias and casualty aversion, I focus on necropolitics and the related impetus for governments to regulate the observation of death. Through this interpretation, part of the American response to the involuntary loss of sovereignty on 9/11 was to exercise control over the observation of death by enforcing the Dover ban. Through comparing the press policies of the US, the UK, and Canada, I show that the necropolitical blow to sovereignty that only the US experienced triggered a repressive policy that only the US was able to maintain.     

Defining quantitative criteria for the physical protection system effectiveness of nuclear facilities

The article is devoted to problems of defining quantitative criteria for the physical protection system (PPS) effectiveness of nuclear facilities. The article briefly describes the scheme of the PPS development used in the nuclear industry in Russia, gives a review of existing approaches to defining the minimal acceptable value of the system's effectiveness, and reveals advantages and disadvantages of the approaches. The article describes in detail an approach based on facility categorization by potential losses and a technique of defining the minimal acceptable value of the PPS effectiveness developed on its base.     

Disaster management in case of CBRNe events: an innovative methodology to improve the safety knowledge of advisors and first responders

Nowadays, Chemical-Biological-Radiological-Nuclear-explosive (CBRNe) risks are one of the world's main safety concerns. The radiological disasters of Fukushima and Chernobyl, the chemical events of Seveso or the release of Sarin in the Tokyo Subway, the biological emergencies such as the H1N1 flu or the recent Ebola outbreak, and recent news about the availability of non-conventional weapons acquired by fundamentalist organisations represent evidence of potential future threats. CBRNe risks are a real and global threat. The University of Rome, Tor Vergata, in collaboration with the most important Italian and international bodies working in the field of CBRNe safety and security, and supported by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, organises International Masters Courses on the Protection against CBRNe events. Within this framework, a Table-Top Exercise was planned, in collaboration with the Italian Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defence. The scenario, the logistic organisation, on-going adjustments during the exercise and the outcomes are presented here and analysed.     

基于MINE-FNA组合算法的防空体系指标网构建方法?

防空作战体系的武器装备组成结构和对抗信息交互具有网络化特征,其作战效能是通过对抗过程中各组分系统间复杂的网络化交互涌现出来的,因此描述体系作战效能的指标也应由各组分系统效能指标相互关联涌现出来,而传统防空体系指标选取方法无法准确描述防空体系内部复杂的关联关系和揭示体系能力的复杂涌现生成机理。因此将无参数探索最大交互信息算法（ MINE）和网络统计算法（ FNA）组合构建了MINE?FNA组合算法模型,对基于武器装备体系仿真试验床的防空体系仿真的全样本实验数据进行深度挖掘,构建了“底层基础指标→均一化指标→体系级指标”的三层防空体系指标网,为研究防空体系内部复杂关联关系和分析防空体系能力的生成机理提供了有效手段。     

联合作战目标协同模型构建与求解方法?

在对联合作战目标协同研究内容分析的基础上,提出了多任务部队与多作战目标的协同目标分配模型,其融合了目标综合价值、目标打击有效性、目标威胁适配度、目标类型匹配、目标距离匹配等因素。通过对各因素量化并将协同目标分配模型转换为指派问题进行求解,验证了分析方法的可行性。