基于FBS-因果有向图模型的诊断设计建模方法研究

提出了一种基于有向图的FBS-因果模型,对FBS-因果模型的形式化描述、建模步骤进行了详细研究,对模型的有关假设、定义及其应用范围等进行了分析,总结性地给出了2种基本的故障诊断策略：序贯测试确定性故障修复法和最大后验概率候选故障源更换法。最后对抽象实例进行验证,结果表明基于有向图的FBS-因果模型的故障诊断测试是实用的,也是有效的。     

The origins of the cancellation of Canada's Avro CF-105 arrow fighter program: A failure of strategy

The story of the demise of Canada's remarkable CF-105 Arrow jet-fighter interceptor has been told and retold by numerous Canadian writers. As told by most, it is a tragic tale. Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker, in an act as unforgivable as it was incomprehensible, not only destroyed a highly promising all-Canadian state-of-the-art aircraft but ruined all hopes of Canada ever being an important player in the North American defense industry. This article offers a contrasting interpretation — locating the problems leading to the aircraft's cancellation further back in history, and in particular in serious and determinative failures in strategic thinking and analysis by senior Canadian military officials at the time of the Arrow program's birth in 1953.     

Deterrence of Nuclear Terror

Nuclear proliferation, lax security standards in the storage of fissile materials, and international apathy in the prosecution of terrorists make nuclear terror a serious threat to the United States and its allies, yet no doctrine of retaliation has been established. To decrease the probability of terrorist use of nuclear weapons, a doctrine of retaliation—a negligence doctrine—should be considered. If the United States can distinguish whose fissile material was used for a nuclear terror event, a negligence doctrine would prescribe retaliation against that state. Where the proximate cause—terrorists—is unavailable for deterrent retaliation, deterring an accessible mediate cause—a state that has failed to adequately secure its fissile material—is one of a few effective alternatives. In the absence of such a negligence doctrine, the United States and its allies are increasingly vulnerable to a nuclear terror attack and the ensuing negative consequences.     

前苏联发展反卫星武器的回顾

随着军用卫星的种类变化和性能提高 ,以及为谋求外层空间作战的军事优势 ,前苏联一直在积极发展反卫星武器。介绍了前苏联反卫星武器的组成、特点、技术方案及其发展情况 ,最后归纳了关于前苏联反卫星武器的几点看法。     

军事办公建筑被动式节能设计策略

军事办公建筑的节能设计与使用,对推动节能减排、促进军营建设具有重要意义。通过对被动式节能设计策略的研究,从建筑设计的视角,以军事办公建筑设计为突破口,分析能耗现状,明确设计目标和思路,从空间设计布局、围护结构热工性能、遮阳系统设置、自然通风与自然采光等方面,探讨被动式节能设计策略在军事办公建筑设计中的应用。结合特定环境,寻求贯穿节能设计始终的适宜技术,充分发挥被动式节能技术集成的优势。通过多项节能技术的协同作用,可以强化和扩大节能措施带来的节能效应,在降低能耗的同时创造出健康、舒适、高效的办公环境。     

Drone Strikes and Grand Strategy: Toward a Political Understanding of the Uses of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Attacks in US Security Policy

This article analyzes the political utility of US drone strikes theoretically and deductively. Placing strikes within the context of the theorized political functions of force and considering how they fit into two grand strategies, restraint and selective engagement, I argue that these strikes buy the United States relatively little in the way of political effects assuring its own security because the terrorism threat they are intended to combat is a limited one within the skein of US global interests. Furthermore, their contribution to counter-terrorism efforts is likely to diminish with the adoption of armed drones by non-state actors. Drone strikes can, however, provide leverage over recalcitrant US client states while reassuring liberal partners and giving them some leverage over US choices. In addition, within the counter-terrorism sphere, drone strikes are less likely to inflame popular opinion than are alternative uses of force. This analysis contributes to an increasingly rigorous examination of the strikes’ role in US foreign and security policy.     

基于搜索论的反舰导弹机动搜捕策略建模方法

针对概略射击条件下反舰导弹机动搜索目标策略优化选择的需求,采用搜索论的基本理论对反舰导弹机动搜捕策略问题进行了研究,建立了反舰导弹随机搜索策略、平行搜索策略和螺旋搜索策略搜捕概率计算模型,并进行了仿真计算。仿真结果表明:在已知目标概略位置的条件下,反舰导弹假若采取螺旋式搜索策略,能以较高的概率快速捕捉目标。     

普通高校非英语专业新生英语学习观念和策略的研究

本文以问卷和面谈的形式对非英语专业大学一年级新生作了一次调查,通过定量和定性分析发现:(1)学生对外语学习中的个体差异,外语学习的内容和形式,母语在外语学习中的作用没有明确的看法;(2)学生普遍认同管理学习过程的重要性;(3)学生的学习观念和学习策略之间存在着很大的差距。并探讨了此调查结果对外语策略培训的启示。     

关于平安校园建设的几点思考

平安校园建设是构建和谐校园的重要举措,是实现高校自身发展的内在要求。文章从认识建设平安校园的重要意义着手,分析了当前高校平安建设中的问题,提出了相应的对策。     

对篮球教练员谋略的探讨

本文通过对教练员的谋略过程、谋略原则和谋略的艺术等几个方面的分析 ,为教练员在竞赛和临场指挥中正确使用谋略提供理论依据与方法