二十世纪美国反恐情报应用模式初探

美国作为较早受到恐怖主义威胁的西方发达国家,自20世纪70年代逐渐发展起了一套完善的执法体系,并积累了成熟的执法经验,特别是信息化时代背景下,美国执法部门的反恐斗争渗透着强烈而鲜明的信息情报色彩,是“情报导侦”理念和模式的现实体现,为我国执法与行动部门提供了一定的经验。其中的“威胁评估”综合情报分析模式是美国反恐情报工作的典型代表,对于预防恐怖主义犯罪起着特殊的作用。     

以色列反恐情报战略探讨

以色列是世界上第一个遭受国际恐怖主义威胁的国家。但通过明确分工和行之有效的反恐措施,以色列已经能够对付不断升级的恐怖主义威胁。自“9·11”事件以来,全球许多国家都开始向以色列求教国土安全方面的知识和专业技术。     

海警部队参与海上反恐作战的思考

随着各国加强对空中和陆地恐怖主义的防控,恐怖主义把视角转向海上。海上恐怖主义具有事件的突发性、手段的多样性、处置的复杂性等特点。边防海警部队参与海上反恐作战有利于取得海上反恐斗争的胜利,有利于掌握海上反恐主动权,有利于顺应国际海上反恐斗争的形势。针对海上恐怖主义的特点,边防海警部队应做到以下几点：一是平时反恐作战准备应具有超前性,二是参与海上反恐作战应体现实效性,三是参与海上反恐作战应把握全局性。     

The rise of targeted killing

Targeted killings have become a central tactic in the United States' campaigns against militant and terrorist groups in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Both ‘demand’ and ‘supply’ factors explain the rise of targeted killings. Demand for targeted killings increased as the United States faced new threats from militant groups that could not be effectively countered with conventional military force. Concerns about the political consequences of long-term military involvement overseas and American casualties led political leaders to supply more targeted killings. The conclusion discusses how this tactic may have unintended consequences as other states follow the United States use of targeted killings.     

Counter-Insurgency in Pakistan: The Role of Legitimacy

The Pakistani security forces have won their fight against the insurgency of the Pakistani Taliban, though terrorism will remain a serious problem for the foreseeable future. Victory was won not chiefly on the basis of new tactics, but of the recovery of legitimacy for the campaign among the population and the armed forces. This occurred when the war came to be seen as one waged not in the interests of the USA, but for the defence of Pakistan. In Balochistan, the nationalist insurgency has been different from and weaker than that of the Taliban—but may prove longer lasting. Military tactics in Balochistan have closely resembled those of the British Raj, and have been based with some success on fomenting tribal divisions and co-opting tribal elites.     

Covert radio communications: a viable tactic for international terrorists?

Covert operations by underground groups, such as transnational terrorists, are not new and neither are the methods members of these groups use to communicate in their shadowy world. In this regard, one of the enduring myths is that the main means these covert operatives use to communicate within their cell structure are telephones and emails in their various manifestations. This article critically discusses the possible use of wireless transmissions by transnational terrorists as a reliable form of communications. To critically discuss this proposition, a force field analysis was used to assess the theory that radio is a viable option. Implications of this study's findings are considered in terms of the ramifications they have for defence and security policy.     

Terrorism research: should we focus on the opponent or on our own people?

In terrorism research, three different sources of information and data exist: the terrorists and their environment; the incidents; and the population. This article discusses the strengths and weaknesses of research that is concerned with, or relies on, any of the mentioned sources. An in-depth understanding of the methodological issues that come with these sources is important to correctly interpret results from scientific studies. It is highlighted how the different scientific approaches add to a holistic view of terrorism as a phenomenon. Furthermore, the double-edged sword of information in the field of terrorism is discussed. From these deliberations, guidance concerning the future work of both scholars and decision-makers can be deducted.     

John Brown as guerrilla terrorist

John Brown is usually not considered to have been a terrorist, and even recent analyses of his activities consider him to be a guerrilla fighter or insurgent in his activities in Kansas. Brown, however, meets the criteria of a terrorist more than a guerrilla fighter when his activities in the Kansas Territory are considered. His raid on Harpers Ferry, however, is more in line with guerrilla operations or insurgent activities.     

Initiating insurgencies abroad: French plans to ‘chouannise’ Britain and Ireland, 1793–1798

Secret French plans to launch guerrilla-style raids on the British Isles devised in the spring of 1796 were referred to as ‘chouanneries’. The name and concept behind these small-war operations were modelled on the irregular tactics used by the Chouan rebels in the Vendée, which the French state army had brutally quashed, but some wished to transfer into their institutional practice. Part of France's ongoing military strategy in the war against Britain, which included fomenting insurrection in Ireland, these irregular operations were to be manned partially by pardoned deserters and released convicts and prisoners of war. Of these, only Tate's brief invasion of Wales in 1797 was realised, but the surviving plans provide insightful historical lessons into an Anglophobic mindset shared by a small network of practitioners and policy deciders on the effectiveness of such shock and awe tactics. Largely motivated by the desire to take revenge for Britain's support of counter-revolutionaries in the Vendée, these plans could more aptly be referred to as counter-‘chouanneries’.     

Does Income Inequality Derive the Separatist Terrorism in Turkey?

Separatist terrorism has been a severe problem for Turkey since the mid-1980s. The conventional wisdom contends that economic deprivation in southeastern Turkey is the fundamental reason for the long-running battle against the Kurdish rebels. Considering that there is limited empirical literature on the roots of terrorism in Turkey, yielding conflicting results about the claim that the main cause of terrorism is deprived economic conditions, this study aims to answer whether there is a causal relationship between income inequality and separatist terrorism in Turkey. To this end, the Global Terrorism Data Base for the period of 1973–2006, two Theil indices of pay inequality as proxy for income inequality, and the vector autoregression and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) methods are utilized. The results support the early findings that income inequality, a particular focus in this paper and an essential indicator of economic deprivation, is not a main cause of escalation of separatist terrorism in Turkey.