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151.
针对径向基插值代理模型样本点预测误差为零时无法获得误差函数进行序列再采样优化的问题,将样本点分布约束引入序列再采样过程,利用潜在最优解加速收敛性,提出一种适用于径向基插值代理模型序列优化的再采样策略,该策略兼顾仿真模型的输出响应特性与样本点的空间分布特性。仿真结果表明,使用该再采样策略后,算法寻优效率和精度均优于传统基于代理模型的优化方法,在对最优解进行有效预测的同时,能显著减少原始模型计算次数。 相似文献
152.
选取截尾点是截尾序贯验后加权检验很关键的一步,目前理论上尚无有效的选取方法。本文用优化技术确定截尾点Ｃ,克服了实践中确定停时Ｎ和截尾点Ｃ遇到的计算困难,避免了一般取Ｃ＝１的盲目性,使截尾点Ｃ的选取有了理论根据。优选的截尾点不仅使双方承担的风险之和最小,而且使双方承担的风险值相对合理,易于接受。 相似文献
153.
The routine inspection of facilities storing large numbers of identical items is modeled as a two‐person, sequential game. Timely detection of illegal activity is parameterized in terms of a critical time to detection, and equilibria are derived which provide inspection strategies. Necessary conditions for deterrence of illegal behavior are discussed. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 496–505, 2001 相似文献
154.
Plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), upon market penetration, will create additional recharging loads to the electric power systems. This article considers different recharging scenarios and uses game theoretic models to study the potential impact of the recharging loads on locational marginal prices (wholesale electricity prices). Computational results from a Pennsylvania‐New Jersey‐Maryland Interconnection case study show that, under the existing recharging infrastructures, even a small magnitude of load increase caused by PHEV recharging could have a significant undesirable impact on locational marginal prices. The impact could be mitigated to a varying extent by the availability of possible future recharging infrastructures, including realtime pricing recharging meters, battery stations, or vehicle‐to‐grid technology.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010 相似文献
155.
When facing uncertain demand, several firms may consider pooling their inventories leading to the emergence of two key contractual issues. How much should each produce or purchase for inventory purposes? How should inventory be allocated when shortages occur to some of the firms? Previously, if the allocations issue was considered, it was undertaken through evaluation of the consequences of an arbitrary priority scheme. We consider both these issues within a Nash bargaining solution (NBS) cooperative framework. The firms may not be risk neutral, hence a nontransferable utility bargaining game is defined. Thus the physical pooling mechanism itself must benefit the firms, even without any monetary transfers. The firms may be asymmetric in the sense of having different unit production costs and unit revenues. Our assumption with respect to shortage allocation is that a firm not suffering from a shortfall, will not be affected by any of the other firms' shortages. For two risk neutral firms, the NBS is shown to award priority on all inventory produced to the firm with higher ratio of unit revenue to unit production cost. Nevertheless, the arrangement is also beneficial for the other firm contributing to the total production. We provide examples of Uniform and Bernoulli demand distributions, for which the problem can be solved analytically. For firms with constant absolute risk aversion, the agreement may not award priority to any firm. Analytically solvable examples allow additional insights, e.g. that higher risk aversion can, for some problem parameters, cause an increase in the sum of quantities produced, which is not the case in a single newsvendor setting. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008 相似文献
156.
We extend the noncooperative game associated with the cost spanning tree problem introduced by Bergantiños and Lorenzo (Math Method Oper Res 59(2004), 393–403) to situations where agents have budget restrictions. We study the Nash equilibria, subgame perfect Nash equilibria, and strong Nash equilibria of this game. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2008 相似文献
157.
Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs). This tool has been utilized by a number of authors to examine two‐stage processes, where all the outputs from the first stage are the only inputs to the second stage. The current article examines and extends these models using game theory concepts. The resulting models are linear, and imply an efficiency decomposition where the overall efficiency of the two‐stage process is a product of the efficiencies of the two individual stages. When there is only one intermediate measure connecting the two stages, both the noncooperative and centralized models yield the same results as applying the standard DEA model to the two stages separately. As a result, the efficiency decomposition is unique. While the noncooperative approach yields a unique efficiency decomposition under multiple intermediate measures, the centralized approach is likely to yield multiple decompositions. Models are developed to test whether the efficiency decomposition arising from the centralized approach is unique. The relations among the noncooperative, centralized, and standard DEA approaches are investigated. Two real world data sets and a randomly generated data set are used to demonstrate the models and verify our findings. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008 相似文献
158.
微分对策及其在军事领域的研究进展 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
介绍了微分对策的产生背景及其半个多世纪以来的发展历程,简述了国内外微分对策理论发展的几个重要阶段及其标志性成果。全面地阐述了国内外关于微分对策在军事领域的应用研究状况,特别是美、俄等军事强国在微分对策军事应用研究方面的现状以及我国研究人员在该领域的主要研究成果。还进一步论述了微分对策在军事应用研究方面存在的问题,并对微分对策的发展前景做出了展望,指出了微分对策在军事应用领域中的研究热点、难点和主要发展方向。 相似文献
159.
联合作战的远程火力战法动态分析方法 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
用定量动态分析方法开发远程火力战法是联合作战规划中必须解决的重要问题。借助仿真和博弈分析的混合方法,在对博弈效用函数计算的基础上,构建基于识别真目标、假目标以及火力命中目标概率的二人非零和(TPNZS)非合作博弈模型来开发远程火力战法动态分析方法,对两个典型的联合作战远程火力打击战法性能的初步动态分析表明:战场势态的动态变化直接影响定量规划最优战法的结果。 相似文献
160.
为了充分利用先验信息和实测信号,提高故障识别率,根据Bayes方法和序贯决策的思想,将实测信号分段,将前一段信号的诊断后验信息作为后一段信号的先验信息,提出了一种基于隐Markov树(hidden Markov tree,HMT)的序贯故障诊断模型.给出了诊断模型的建模步骤、HMT模型的建立方法和Bayes后验概率的计算方法.将模型应用于某型减速器故障诊断的结果表明,对于有先验信息和无先验情况,该序贯模型都可以有效地提高故障识别率. 相似文献