基于贝叶斯网络的船舶动力装置战场损伤分析

针对船舶动力装置战场损伤特点,对其损伤分析进行了研究,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的动力装置战场损伤模型.以主机振动为例,分析了模型的建立、更新和完善等.分析结果表明,该模型和方法提高了船舶动力装置的战场损伤分析的速度和准确性.     

船舶操纵模拟器立体视景系统理论、方法和实现的研究

在船舶操纵模拟器中,视景系统的立体显示为场景中物体的空间关系提供重要的视觉信息,并大大地增强了三维场景的真实感。分析了立体显示方法的原理,介绍了多通道立体显示系统所需的设备及环境,提出了基于Vega的船舶操纵模拟器的立体显示视景系统结构框架,阐述了Vega中场景初始化的方法及立体显示参数的设置,并实现了基于Vega的船舶操纵模拟器视景系统的立体显示,提高了船舶操纵模拟器视景系统的逼真度。     

惯性测量匹配法测定船体变形实施方案研究

介绍了船体变形的产生原因,详细分析了船体变形对航姿参数的影响和惯性测量匹配在实船上测量船体变形时的几种实施方案。分别讨论了在中心航姿系统部位和局部基准部位是否安装加速度计和速率陀螺时的不同情况,具体推导了变形角、局部基准部位的航姿角和摇摆线速度的计算公式。对各种方案进行了分析比较,指出了各自的优缺点,为惯性测量匹配法在实船上的应用打下了基础。     

装备再制造性指标分配

再制造性设计是装备再制造工程的重要组成部分,是实现退役装备易于再制造的可靠保证,而再制造性指标分配是再制造性设计的重要内容,它能够保证所要求的指标科学地分配到装备各零部件,实现装备再制造效益的最大化。探讨了再制造性指标分配的相关概念及其再制造性指标分配程序,并提出了几种可行的再制造性指标分配方法,为装备的再制造性设计提供了有效的技术支撑。     

基于舰艇编队的反舰导弹航路规划区域划分

根据舰艇编队对海导弹攻击中航路规划指挥决策的需要,为避免各舰发射的导弹出现航路交叉现象,提出了单舰导弹航路规划功能区域的概念和编队导弹航路规划区域划分的思想,建立了编队导弹航路规划区域划分模型。分别研究了一般情况和复杂情况下的导弹航路规划区域划分方法,并且结合想定装备参数进行了编程实现和算例分析。为编队指挥员实施导弹航路规划决策提供辅助决策和科学依据。     

基于分形理论的目标航路预测

电磁干扰条件下解决断续航路预测问题对防空兵有效抗击空中目标至关重要。针对包络灰预测方法预测精度较低和Verhulst灰色预测模型计算过程复杂的情况,提出了预测航路的分形方法。在分形理论的基础上,研究了其用于目标断续航路预测的基本思路,建立了基于分形的目标航路预测模型,并对模型进行了求解。最后,利用建立的分形模型对雷达丢失目标后的目标航路进行了预测,通过实例体现了分形方法在用于航路预测时的准确性、灵活性和易实现等特点。结果表明,用该法对断续目标航路的预测具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Insurgent courts in civil wars: the three pathways of (trans)formation in today’s Syria (2012–2017)

As part of research on the meso-foundations of conflict, the field of ‘rebel governance’ examines political institutions that regulate the affairs of civilians in wartime as well as their relations with armed actors. Judicial institutions play an important role in this and research has shown that they are widespread among both historical and current insurgencies. However, usually these bodies have been analysed in the context of one hegemonic faction like the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka and the Afghan Taliban. What is missing so far is an analysis of different pathways of (trans)formation of rebel courts. As exemplified by the three case studies of judicial institutions in Eastern Ghouta, Idlib and Aleppo, these are shaped by the distribution of power between ‘same-side’ groups, yielding unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar constellations. The analysis is located on the meso or movement level of insurgent social structures, complementing research on the micro and macro levels.     

A nonparametric Bayes approach to decide system burn-in time

Burn-in is the preconditioning of assemblies and the accelerated power-on tests performed on equipment subject to temperature, vibration, voltage, radiation, load, corrosion, and humidity. Burn-in techniques are widely applied to integrated circuits (IC) to enhance the component and system reliability. However, reliability prediction by burn-in at the component level, such as the one using the military (e.g., MIL-STD-280A, 756B, 217E [23–25]) and the industrial standards (e.g., the JEDEC standards), is usually not consistent with the field observations. Here, we propose system burn-in, which can remove many of the residual defects left from component and subsystem burn-in (Chien and Kuo [6]). A nonparametric model is considered because 1) the system configuration is usually very complicated, 2) the components in the system have different failure mechanisms, and 3) there is no good model for modeling incompatibility among components and subsystems (Chien and Kuo [5]; Kuo [16]). Since the cost of testing a system is high and, thus, only small samples are available, a Bayesian nonparametric approach is proposed to determine the system burn-in time. A case study using the proposed approach on MCM ASIC's shows that our model can be applied in the cases where 1) the tests and the samples are expensive, and 2) the records of previous generation of the products can provide information on the failure rate of the system under investigation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 655–671, 1997     

Algorithms for computing waiting time distributions under different queue disciplines for the D-BMAP/PH/1

A queueing system characterized by the discrete batch Markovian arrival process (D-BMAP) and a probability of phase type distribution for the service time is one that arises frequently in the area of telecommunications. Under this arrival process and service time distribution we derive the waiting time distribution for three queue disciplines: first in first out (FIFO), last in first out (LIFO), and service in random order (SIRO). We also outline efficient algorithmic procedures for computing the waiting time distributions under each discipline. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 559–576, 1997     

飞航导弹故障飞行落点概率计算方法

针对飞航导弹故障飞行落点概率难以准确计算的问题,通过分析导弹的各个分系统的故障机理重新提出五种故障模式,依据逐系统串联的原理建立了故障模式的概率分配计算模型;在对发射、飞行和故障后坠落等阶段进行分析的基础上建立各故障模式的仿真模型;最后应用蒙特卡洛方法对某型导弹故障飞行落点的概率分布进行了仿真计算。