基于拉盖尔模型的超声信号渡越时间测量性能分析

传统窄带模型仅能通过数值计算统计出超声信号渡越时间的测量性能。针对这一问题,提出基于拉盖尔模型计算理论克拉下限的方法。研究了拉盖尔函数及其时间导数的性质,得到时间导数内积矩阵,并将其应用到费舍尔矩阵中,能够快速精确计算克拉下限。对混合指数模型仿真表明,在高斯白噪声背景下,渡越时间方差与理论克拉下限具有良好的一致性;受窄带噪声和反射等因素影响,实测数据的渡越时间方差与理论克拉下限存在较大偏差。     

基于pLSA模型的人体动作识别

提出一种基于主题模型的人体动作识别方法。该方法首先提取时空兴趣点(STIP,space-time interest point)来描述人体运动,然后提出使用慢特征分析(SFA, slow feature analysis)算法计算兴趣点梯度信息不变量最优解,最后使用概率潜在语义分析 (pLSA, probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis) 模型识别人体动作。SFA计算的梯度不变量最优解可以表示时空兴趣点固有特征,能够无歧义反映时空兴趣点在空间及时间方向上的信息。同时,针对pLSA隐性主题正确性无法保证的缺点,算法将主题与动作标签“一对一”相关,通过监督方式得到主题,保证了训练中主题的正确性。该算法在KTH人体运动数据库和Weizmann人体动作数据库进行了训练与测试,动作识别结果正确率分别在91.50%和97%以上。     

基于OCSVM和MCSVM的新故障检测与诊断技术研究

针对SVM故障诊断方法无法对新故障模式进行有效检测的问题,在阐述OCSVM原理的基础上,详细分析了各种参数对其性能的影响,提出了基于OCSVM和多类分类MCSVM相结合的新故障检测与诊断方法．实验结果表明,该算法在故障诊断及新故障检测方面有较高的精度,具有良好的推广性．     

BUTTER,GUNS AND ICE‐CREAM THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA

This paper is intended to complement the existing literature on civil wars. First, it presents a simple theoretical model of conflict that defines a two‐sector economy. In a contested sector, two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice‐cream’. Following the theoretical insights the empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between civil wars and different sectors of the economy. In particular, a panel probit specification shows that the incidence of a civil war decreases in the size of manufacturing sector.     

Emotions,Risk Perceptions and Precautionary Actions of Citizens During a Military Operation Using a New Defence Technology: The Israeli Case of the Iron Dome

Abstract

The current field study used unique data collected in Israel in July 2014, during a military operation that the Israel Defence Forces (I.D.F.) conducted in the Gaza Strip, in reaction to the thousands of missiles launched from there into Israel. During this operation, the new Iron Dome anti-missile defence system was used to protect Israelis exposed to missile attacks. The study examined factors that correlate with decisions to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions regarding behaviour during missile attacks. In addition, the study examined the relationship between attitudes towards the Iron Dome technology and emotions, risk perceptions, and the decision to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions. The results indicate that stronger positive opinions towards Iron Dome were correlated with lower levels of fear and anger, and beliefs that participant’s chances of being injured by a missile were lower than they had been during previous military operation. In addition, better compliance with I.D.F. defence instructions correlated with being more fearful, angrier at Hamas, living closer to Gaza Strip, and having more positive opinions about Iron Dome. The findings also indicate gender differences with respect to factors correlated with risk perceptions, opinions regarding Iron Dome, and precautionary actions during attacks.     

马氏综合权重距离判别法在中小型滑坡灾害评估中的应用

我国西南地区滑坡灾害具有点多面广、规模小、危害大的特点,群测群防是目前中小型滑坡灾害最为有效的预防手段。针对这种现状,为进一步完善群测群防体系,在马氏距离判别法和加权马氏距离判别法的基础上对权重值进行了修正改进,提出了一种新的判别分析方法——马氏综合权重距离判别法。该方法不仅保留了加权马氏距离判别中区分每一个指标重要性差异的优势,并且结合德尔菲法对权重值进一步修正,弥补了原来加权马氏距离法在判别过程中距离函数出现负值的不足。从本质上来说,这种方法是把由样本驱动的权重值和实际工程经验的权重值相结合,使权重值的取值更加符合实际。以该方法为基础,在一定的历史资料背景下,从滑坡致灾因素和孕灾因素考虑,选取适当的判别因子,建立判别模型,对未知潜在滑坡灾害进行判别归类,并且与马氏距离判别法和Fisher判别法比较。研究发现,马氏综合权重距离判别法具有更高的可靠度和判别精度,适于在群测群防体系中进一步推广使用。     

半仿真方位高分辨后置处理方法

MVDR自适应波束形成可获得良好的目标方位估计性能,但其方位分辨力仍受限于阵列孔径.为进一步提高目标方位分辨性能,在MVDR自适应波束输出的基础上,提出了一种高分辨后置处理方法.在两目标方位不可分时,仿真构造两个目标的阵列输出空间方位谱,通过搜索两目标的方位和幅值,与真实数据的空间方位谱输出作匹配处理,从而获得目标的方位估计.实验室仿真及海试数据处理验证了该方法的有效性.     

灰色模糊物元分析的要地防空威胁评估

结合要地防空作战的特点,分析了影响目标威胁评估的因素.针对指标信息的不确定性,将模糊物元分析与灰色系统理论相结合,并运用AHP法和信息熵法进行组合赋权,建立了基于组合赋权的灰色模糊物元分析的要地防空威胁评估模型.在对来袭目标进行威胁评估时,将目标的各个特征作为物元的事物,以其各项评价指标及模糊灰量值构造复合模糊灰元.通过计算与标准模糊灰元之间的关联度,实现对空袭目标的威胁评估与排序.实例分析表明该方法可靠有效.     

棉纤维热解特性及阻燃机理研究

用有机磷系阻燃剂Pyrovatex CP以及尿素、二氰二胺和三聚氰胺3种氮系的协效剂组成的整理液对纯棉织物进行阻燃处理,利用热重仪对其热解特性进行研究,通过分析TG-DTG曲线,研究了阻燃剂对棉纤维热解过程的影响,并对协效剂的协效效果进行了比较分析.结果表明,棉纤维热解主要分3个阶段;阻燃剂使棉纤维的起始分解温度降低,剩炭率提高;在磷氮比固定为1：0.1的情况下,尿素的协效作用相对最好,并对其阻燃机理进行了探讨.     

基于Q-MMSPF的海杂波多重分形互相关分析和目标检测

提出一种研究长程互相关和多重分形的新方法——Q阶混合矩结构分割函数法(Q-MMSPF),并利用Q-MMSPF分析了海杂波时间序列的多重分形互相关特征。通过对实测海杂波数据的计算分析发现,海杂波互相关多重分形特征较弱,目标信号之间的互相关多重分形特征明显,而目标信号与海杂波之间的互相关多重分形程度介于二者之间。据此,本文采用一种新的特征值进行海杂波背景下的目标检测。通过对不同条件下的实测海杂波数据验证,表明使用本文提出的特征值测量方法可以十分有效地检测出海杂波背景下的小弱目标。