导弹单发杀伤概率影响因素分析

提出了进行导弹单发杀伤概率影响因素分析的必要性,进行了大量的导弹单发杀伤概率仿真计算,对作战条件和弹目交会条件等重要影响因素进行了深入地分析研究,并对导弹的作战使用、战术决策和目标机的最佳规避机动策略进行了深入探讨。研究成果给飞行员在导弹作战使用过程中进行战术决策提供了强有力的科学理论依据。     

A single‐period inventory placement problem for a serial supply chain

This article addresses the inventory placement problem in a serial supply chain facing a stochastic demand for a single planning period. All customer demand is served from stage 1, where the product is stored in its final form. If the demand exceeds the supply at stage 1, then stage 1 is resupplied from stocks held at the upstream stages 2 through N, where the product may be stored in finished form or as raw materials or subassemblies. All stocking decisions are made before the demand occurs. The demand is nonnegative and continuous with a known probability distribution, and the purchasing, holding, shipping, processing, and shortage costs are proportional. There are no fixed costs. All unsatisfied demand is lost. The objective is to select the stock quantities that should be placed different stages so as to maximize the expected profit. Under reasonable cost assumptions, this leads to a convex constrained optimization problem. We characterize the properties of the optimal solution and propose an effective algorithm for its computation. For the case of normal demands, the calculations can be done on a spreadsheet. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:506–517, 2001     

Bayesian inference based on partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance

Consider a binary, monotone system of n components. The assessment of the parameter vector, θ, of the joint distribution of the lifetimes of the components and hence of the reliability of the system is often difficult due to scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. For instance, prior knowledge is often of importance and can indeed conveniently be incorporated by the Bayesian approach. It may also be important to continuously extract information from a system currently in operation. This may be useful both for decisions concerning the system in operation as well as for decisions improving the components or changing the design of similar new systems. As in Meilijson [12], life‐monitoring of some components and conditional life‐monitoring of some others is considered. In addition to data arising from this monitoring scheme, so‐called autopsy data are observed, if not censored. The probabilistic structure underlying this kind of data is described, and basic likelihood formulae are arrived at. A thorough discussion of an important aspect of this probabilistic structure, the inspection strategy, is given. Based on a version of this strategy a procedure for preventive system maintenance is developed and a detailed application to a network system presented. All the way a Bayesian approach to estimation of θ is applied. For the special case where components are conditionally independent given θ with exponentially distributed lifetimes it is shown that the weighted sum of products of generalized gamma distributions, as introduced in Gåsemyr and Natvig [7], is the conjugate prior for θ. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 551–577, 2001.     

Patterns in spatial point locations: Local indicators of spatial association in a minefield with clutter

The problem of detecting a minefield in the presence of clutter can be abstracted to that of detecting a spatial pattern within a set of point locations. The point locations are superpositions of several patterns, one of which corresponds to mines. In contrast to previous articles that take a formal, model‐based approach, this article proposes a statistical methodology that is distinctly exploratory. Each point location is considered separately, and its contributions to a global measure of spatial distances between locations are featured. Different patterns and unusual points can be more easily identified on the new scale. Both minefield data and simulated point patterns demonstrate the power of the method. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Naval Research Logistics 48:333–347, 2001     

关于取绝对值的函数可微性的讨论

求绝对值函数的导数是高等数学的一个难点。本文证明了一个公式,能较全面地解决绝对值函数的求导问题。     

子自仿射集的Hausdorff维数

设S1,S2 ,… ,SN 是Rn 上的N个仿射压缩映射 ,若Rn 的紧子集E满足E UNi =1 Si(E) ,则称E为子自仿射集 .作者在一定条件下得到了子自仿射集E的Hausdorff维数 .     

投资消费模型中价值函数的基本性质

在有交易费的投资消费模型下,讨论了价值函数的一些基本性质,即给出了价值函数是有限连续和非减凹函数.     

二维运动目标纯方位系统的部分可观测性

针对二维空间作匀加速运动的目标,对等速直线运动的单观测站纯方位目标运动分析问题进行了讨论.此时系统是不完全可观测的.本文证明了目标部分运动参数是可估计的,即目标与观察者的相对航向Kr,相对速度与初距离之比Vr/D0,加速度与初距离之比a/D0是可以解算的,并对可估计参数的有解条件进行了分析.     

利用验前信息的一种序贯检验方法——序贯验后加权检验方法

序贯验后加权检验方法是Bayes 统计观点在假设检验中的运用。本文提出了该方法的一般理论,给出了当总体的分布参数具有验前信息时的序贯检验方法。文中确定了决策区的划分,同时讨论了序贯截尾方案,给出了检验中可能犯两类错误的概率的上界,并将一般理论应用于产品的可靠性检验和再入飞行器随机落点的精度鉴定。由于运用了验前信息,因此能有效地在少量试验之下进行统计假设检验。本文所提供的方法对于昂贵产品试验结果的统计评定具有普遍意义。     

基于RBF网络的导弹攻击区解算及对比分析

研究了神经网络在空空导弹攻击区处理中的运用,在提出多层前馈(MF)网络和径向基函数(RBF)网络设计方案的基础上,着重对MF网络的BP算法、改进BP算法以及RBF网络的应用进行了仿真,并从收敛速度、逼近精度和实时性三个方面,对计算结果进行了对比分析,结论表明RBF网络在导弹攻击区处理中具有更高的可行性,更适用于快速高精度的火控解算。