Effects of Nuclear Technology Export Competition on Nuclear Nonproliferation

ABSTRACT

While nuclear suppliers compete in markets, they simultaneously partner in other fields. This produces a delicate relationship between civilian nuclear programs and nuclear weapon proliferation. This study explores how export competition affects suppliers’ conditions of supply related to nuclear nonproliferation. We investigated three export cases (India, North Korea, and South Korea) and identified four effects that competition has on the conditions of supply related to nonproliferation. First, under highly competitive conditions, suppliers might hesitate to enforce the conditions of supply to avoid negotiation conflicts with recipients. Second, suppliers focus on politically and economically attractive recipients while mostly ignoring unattractive ones, perhaps allowing proliferation problems to fester out of view in marginal states. Third, suppliers can build consensus on the conditions of supply to avoid being the only party experiencing negotiation conflicts. Fourth, suppliers can constrain others from relaxing the conditions of supply to maintain economic benefits and nonproliferation norms. The first two effects accelerate proliferation while the last two promote nonproliferation. Although the extent of these effects can vary with changes in nonproliferation norms, they can contribute to our understanding of the relationship between nonproliferation and civilian nuclear programs.     

GERMANY'S CURRENT AND FUTURE PLUTONIUM INVENTORY

In the past, Germany reprocessed a significant amount of its spent nuclear fuel, partly on its own territory but mostly as a customer of British and French reprocessing plants. In mid-2005, Germany stopped this practice, banning new transports of spent fuel for reprocessing—although the already-exported material would be allowed to be reprocessed and recycled in German reactors as mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel. In total, about 6,500 tonnes of heavy metal have been contracted for reprocessing, but a significant portion of this material has neither been reprocessed nor recycled as MOX fuel in German reactors. Due to the complex import-export history and the partly nontransparent information policy of the German government and utilities, a comprehensive and up-to-date plutonium balance for Germany is not publicly available. This report provides an assessment of Germany's plutonium inventory (stored domestically or abroad) based on open-source information. Special attention is paid to the issue of whether the entire inventory of separated plutonium can be completely irradiated in German nuclear reactors before the last of them are shut down in 2022. The authors conclude that Germany's stock of plutonium waiting to be recycled was about 12.2 tonnes as of 2010; this plutonium should be completely re-imported from the United Kingdom and France by 2017. Germany's MOX-consumption capacities should be sufficient to irradiate the remaining plutonium, although further delays are expected that could leave Germany with an inventory of separated (unirradiated) plutonium.     

一种高效的通信电台测试点优化故障诊断策略

针对通信电台的测试诊断问题,通过建立“故障一测试”相关性矩阵,提出了一种GADPSO算法与最大诊断信息量准则结合进行通信电台故障诊断的方法．GADPSO算法收敛速度快、计算精度高,既避免了陷入局部最优和早熟收敛,又提高了优化效率;最大诊断信息量准则能全面评判测试点,快速有效地获得测试顺序．该方法为通信电台故障诊断提供了一种高效诊断策略．     

漂浮式微型波力发电装置原理与结构

为了满足偏远岛屿小功率用电保障需求,根据波浪能特点,提出一种新型漂浮式微型波力发电装置。利用重锤惯性定心原理,建立浮动"机架",解决漂浮体内部相对固定问题;采用机-电直接转换系统,提高波浪能的利用效率;研究系统的原理与结构,分析系统的功能特点和主要运动参数。研究结果表明,漂浮式微型波力发电装置具有结构原理新颖、传动效率高、传动质量好与轻巧便携等优点。该研究为漂浮式微型波力发电装置的研发与应用奠定了基础。     

航空吊放声纳主动方式暴露距离研究

航空吊放声纳是反潜作战主要搜潜设备之一,其主动工作方式暴露范围也是搜潜战术运用的重要参数。基于均方声压声纳方程修正了相关参数,得到了声能声纳方程各项参数定义,结合高斯束射线Bellhop模型,研究了吊放声纳主动方式暴露距离估算方法,针对潜艇两种声纳类型工作特性,进行了仿真和分析。仿真结果表明,在潜艇侦察声纳工作时,吊放声纳主动方式暴露距离明显加大。     

基于PSO-RBF神经网络的雷达目标识别

为提高雷达系统目标识别能力,对粒子群算法及RBF神经网络进行了分析。针对离子群算法(PSO)易陷入局部极小的缺陷,提出了基于自适应时变权重和局部搜索算子的改进PSO算法,并将该算法应用到RBF神经网络核函数参数的优化学习中,进行了雷达目标识别仿真实验。仿真结果表明,相对于标准PSO-RBF神经网络,改进算法不仅收敛速度快,且误差精度高,特别在干扰较强时,目标的识别率有较大提高。     

Kevlar fabric reinforced polybenzoxazine composites filled with silane treated microcrystalline cellulose in the interlayers: The next generation of multi-layered armor panels

The design of astonishing combinations of benzoxazine resins with various fillers is nowadays of great interest for high quality products, especially in ballistic armors. The objective of this study is to investigate a new hybrid material prepared as multi-layered composite plate by hand lay-up technique. Different composites were manufactured from Kevlar fabrics reinforced polybenzoxazine, which was filled with silane treated microcrystalline cellulose (MCC Si) at various amounts in the interlayers. The developed materials were tested for their flexural, dynamic mechanical and ballistic performance. The aim was to highlight the effect of adding different amounts of MCC Si on the behavior of the different plates. Compared to the baseline, the dynamic mechanical and bending tests revealed an obvious decrease of the glass transition of 21 °C and a notable increase in storage modulus and flexural strength of about 180 %and17%, respectively, upon adding 1% MMC Si as filler. Similarly, the ballistic test exhibited an enhancement in kinetic energy absorption for which the composite supplemented with 1% MCC Si had the maximal energy absorption of 166.60 J. These results indicated that the developed panels, with interesting mechanical and ballistic features, are suitable to be employed as raw materials to produce body armor.     

基于兹-QPSO的战斗机机动规避优化方法

规避导弹攻击对于提高战斗机生存能力具有重要意义。首先,建立战斗机和导弹的运动模型及导弹导引律模型,采用直接多重打靶的参数化方法,将机动规避最优控制问题转化为非线性规划问题;采用相位角编码量子粒子群优化算法（兹-QPSO）实现参数寻优,并结合滚动优化的思想,利用模型预测控制得到规避轨迹闭环解和战斗机的实时控制量。最后仿真验证了该方法的合理性和算法的有效性。     

离散Hopfield网络的航空装备机务人员能力素质模型评价

随着航空装备的不断更新,带来了航空维修内容、流程和模式的深刻变化。航空机务人员的业务能力高低成为影响航空装备安全的重要因素,为此,从静态、动态两个方面研究了航空机务人员能力评价问题。首先给出了航空机务人员能力指标体系,运用模糊综合评价法进行了影响因素权重计算和决策分析,其次利用离散Hopfield(DHNN)网络联想记忆能力,将5种机务人员能力等级指标的样本存储到DHNN的5种模式,最后运用DHNN在存储的典型等级模式中寻找与给定测试样本最相似的模式,从而确定测试样本所归属的能力指标等级。     

探月飞船初次再入段纵程的解析预测方法

探月飞船升阻比较低,为实现长纵程飞行,必须采用跳跃式再入方式。在跳跃式再入轨迹在线规划或预测制导中,如何快速准确地预测初次再入段纵程是一个非常关键的问题。针对这一问题,研究提出一种解析预测方法:利用匹配渐进展开方法得到再入纵向运动方程的闭型近似解;将初次再入段轨迹分为三段,第一段采用高度作为积分自变量,并利用复合梯形公式得到纵程,第二段和第三段分别采用二次多项式来拟合阻力加速度-能量剖面,根据近似解结果反解出多项式系数,并将得到的阻力加速度倒数-能量函数进行积分,得到第二段和第三段的纵程;对解析预测方法的精度和计算效率进行分析,结果表明该方法计算精度较高,速度快,可用于跳跃式再入轨迹的在线规划和制导。