A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks

A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks is developed and placed within a systematic theoretical structure. For the target or object of the attack, we consider the lost value of human lives, lost economic value, and lost influence value, counted as benefits for the terrorist. The corresponding losses for the terrorist are counted as costs. The terrorist attacks if benefits outweigh costs. Bounded rationality is enabled where the three kinds of benefits and costs can be weighted differently. We account for two ex ante probabilities of successful planning and attack, and enable the terrorist to assign different weights to its multiple stakeholders. We introduce multiple time periods, time discounting, attitudes towards risk, and subcategories for the benefits and costs. The cost–benefit analysis is illustrated with the 11 September 2001 attack, and 53 incidents in the Global Terrorism Database yielding both positive and negative expected utilities. The paper is intended as a tool for scientists and policy-makers, as a way of thinking about costs and benefits of terrorist attacks.     

电磁脉冲弹的杀伤能力

概述了电磁脉冲弹的组成和工作原理,通过对电磁脉冲波形的分析,以及对电磁脉冲能量在空中的传播规律的研究,建立了电磁脉冲武器杀伤能力的仿真模型.在此基础上选择六种最具代表性的电子器件,并根据其破坏阈值进行仿真计算,从而得出了电磁脉冲弹在采用定向天线时对这六种电子器件的杀伤距离.根据电磁脉冲弹的杀伤能力对其进行合理运用,这对以使用电磁脉冲武器为背景的战法研究具有非常重要的现实意义.     

时域电场积分方程中的奇异提取技术

介绍了一种基于奇异提取技术的时域积分方程中奇异积分的处理方法,在奇异提取过程中,电磁波传播的延迟效应对积分的贡献包含在内。数值实验表明该方法能够大幅提高自作用和近作用阻抗矩阵元素的计算精度。     

基于二维小波变换的空间目标识别算法

对于空间目标识别这个具有挑战性的研究课题,提出了基于二维小波变换的空间目标识别算法。该算法首先对空间目标的ISAR像进行二维小波变换,然后从近似分量和细节分量中提取奇异值特征,最后应用径向基函数(RBF)神经网络进行分类识别。计算机仿真实验表明,该算法取得了比较好的识别效果。     

灰色预测GM(1,1)模型及其改进与应用

介绍了灰色预测的基本原理和常用GM(1,1)模型及其适用性判断方法,针对GM(1,1)模型中背景值的取法,提出了一种自动寻优定权的改进措施,通过实例对比分析,应用效果良好。     

论科技劳动与价值创造

在知识经济条件下 ,科学技术迅猛发展 ,而科技创新劳动能够推动生产力飞速发展 ,是一种推动和实现科技重大质的飞跃的劳动 ,是具有科学知识高积累和高创造性能力的科技人才进行的生产劳动 ,是具有高度创造性、极其复杂的劳动 ,是创造价值的巨大源泉。科技劳动是劳动价值论的重要范畴 ,深入研究它在价值创造中的重大作用具有深刻的理论和现实意义。     

张岱山水小品文的个性意识与时代内涵

张岱的山水小品文创作受晚明社会风气的影响 ,鲜明地体现出晚明山水文学的共性特征 ,指出了晚明士大夫适世娱世的人生态度和注重山水的悦已作用 ,同时由于其独特的人生历程及审美视野 ,张岱的山水小品文亦呈现出独具特色的个性风彩和思想内涵 ,如其对自然生命观、个性美的认识等 ,在晚明文坛独树一帜 ,进一步加深了人们对自然的理解 ,提升了人们对自然的观照态度 ,进而推动了晚明山水文学的发展     

C逻辑值的类型及其应用

C逻辑值“真”和“假”分别为整数1和0,可作为普通的数参与数值运算,由此派生出许多巧妙算法。逻辑值与分支选择结构密切相关,在解决各类分支选择问题中有相应的应用。     

When is model complexity too much? Illustrating the benefits of simple models with Hughes' salvo equations

The simulations that many defense analysts rely upon in their studies continue to grow in size and complexity. This paper contrasts the guidance that the authors have received—from some of the giants of military operations research—with the current practice. In particular, the analytic utility of Hughes' simple salvo equations is compared with that of the complex Joint Warfighting System (JWARS), with respect to JWARS' key performance parameters. The comparison suggests that a family of analytic tools supports the best analyses. It follows that smaller, more agile, and transparent models, such as Hughes' salvo equations, are underutilized in defense analyses. We believe that these models should receive more attention, use, and funding. To illustrate this point, this paper uses two very simple models (by modern standards) to rapidly generate insights on the value of information relative to force strength. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

儒家诚信思想及其当代价值

儒家历来重视诚信。历史上,儒家诚信在人类的个体生活和社会生活中均有重要的价值,产生了重要的影响。它是立身处世的根本,是交友之道,是经济活动的重要保证,也是治理国家的依据。在当今构建社会主义和谐社会过程中,儒家诚信有助于提高个人道德修养,形成和谐相处的人际环境;有助于建设政府诚信,提高政府执政能力;是发展社会主义市场经济的道德基石。