复杂系统维修性综合评估技术

分析了复杂系统使用期间维修性水平动态变化特点,研究了复杂系统在使用中维修性数据特点、类型和分布确定方法,建立了复杂系统使用期间维修性指标综合评估模型,提出了维修性增长极大似然评估方法,为复杂系统维修性指标计算和评估提供参考。     

基于数据挖掘的海战场态势可视化平台构建

可视化和数据挖掘是进行海战场态势评估、实现战场可视化的两项关键技术。海战场态势可视化能提高指挥员的战场态势感知能力,有效辅助指挥员进行当前态势评估和未来态势预测。而数据挖掘技术是对海量战场态势数据进行知识发现的有效工具,基于数据挖掘技术从顶层构建了海战场态势数据可视化挖掘平台,并对其中的各子模块进行了具体研究。     

双机编队超视距攻击协同优势评估

针对双机协同超视距攻击中的态势评估和协同优势评估,提出了基于编队状态的协同优势评估方法。首先分析并将编队完成超视距攻击的过程划分为4个状态阶段;其次建立了基本的超视距攻击态势评估模型;最后讨论了编队不同状态下的协同优势评估方法并建立了模型。仿真结果表明,该算法模型能够较为准确地评估双机编队在超视距攻击中的协同优势。     

“What is dear to you?” Survey of beliefs regarding protection of critical infrastructure against terrorism

Up to the present, there is only very little research on how the population perceives terrorism and its threats, even though support from the population is crucial for effective counterterrorism. By eliciting beliefs and subjecting them to content analyses, six factors were found that determine the protection worthiness of a target in the people's view: the potential damage to “people,” “symbolism,” “economy,” “politics,” “nature,” and “image/publicity.” These empirically found factors are in line with factors specified by terrorist target selection models. They differ in the strength of their cognitive representation among participants and, thus, their subjective importance to the people. The first three factors are shared among all participants, whereas the latter ones could only be found in a part of the participant sample. People's judgments of the targets' protection worthiness differ substantially from their judgments of the targets' attractiveness to terrorists, even though the same factors seem to be involved. This study offers an insight into the people's mental model about protection worthiness of targets. Together with classical risk analysis and knowledge about terrorists, these results can form a basis for setting up a holistic scheme for critical infrastructure protection.     

在军援装备物资科研订购中引入激励机制探析

军援装备物资的订购筹措是军事援助中较为重要的一项工作.在军援装备科研订购过程中充分利用经济杠杆的调节和行政手段的调控,通过招标竞争、利益诱导、资金保障、实施奖惩等方面的具体措施,通过履行合同、择优订货等环节的激励,最大限度地调动和发挥各方面的积极性,逐步建立适应军援装备发展需要和社会主义市场经济的新型军援装备科研订购体制.     

战场态势估计的理论体系研究

态势估计是数据融合体系中的一个重要层次。战场态势估计在现代作战中发挥了越来越重要的作用,但到目前为止关于态势估计的理论体系还没有一种比较统一的看法。本文从态势估计在数据融合中的地位出发,以态势估计处理融合数据的具体流程为根据,建立了三个层次的态势估计层次结构,解决了关于态势估计具体需要研究的内容问题。     

Challenges of measuring progress in Afghanistan using violence trends: the effects of aggregation,military operations,seasonality, weather,and other causal factors

Measuring nationwide progress of counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan using violence trends is difficult due to several factors: aggregation of data to the national level may obfuscate disparate local trends; the observed seasonality in violence makes comparisons difficult and may obscure progress; and short-term spikes or troughs – attributable to weather, military operations and tempo, or holiday periods – heavily influence simple averaging schemes. Despite these challenges, proper understanding of violence statistics is critical to estimating the effectiveness of military forces added during a surge or redeployed as part of transition. This article explores methods for analyzing observed violence trends to identify causal factors, to provide a comparable baseline, and to inform assessments at appropriate levels of aggregation. One methodology for seasonal adjustment of violence data is discussed and shown to provide a logical baseline for examining trends. An ordinary least squares regression model is developed and implemented using time-series violence data.     

机场跑道毁伤效果评估系统研究

开展对机场跑道的毁伤效果评估研究在战效评估领域具有重要的现实意义。针对机场跑道目标的特点,提出了一种机场跑道毁伤效果评估方法,即以毁伤效果评估数据为基础,在机场跑道区域内寻找飞机的最小起降窗口,以此判断机场跑道是否被封锁,实现对机场跑道的物理毁伤评估和功能毁伤评估。仿真实验结果表明该方法能够合理地评估机场跑道的毁伤效果,对打击方案优化比对具有重要意义。     

模糊一致矩阵的AHP在装备采购风险评价中的应用

针对传统层次分析法的不足,在装备采购风险评价中引入了基于模糊一致矩阵的层次分析法,提出了装备采购风险评价的模糊层次分析方法,不但解决了传统层次分析法中判断矩阵一致性的检验、调整和判断标准等问题,而且充分集成了多个专家的知识和经验,使决策过程更贴近实际,更便于理解。算例分析结果验证了所提出装备采购风险评价方法的可行性和有效性。     

单装战损评估仿真系统的设计与实现

首先介绍了系统模型的建立;接着阐述了系统功能、结构以及各子系统的设计与实现;继而介绍了系统实现所用到的关键技术和方法;最后利用该系统,进行了某杀爆战斗部对卡车毁伤的仿真试验,得出了汽车部件毁伤分布及毁伤等级等结果。仿真结果表明,该仿真结果与试验数据基本吻合。该系统可以为维修保障及器材供应计划的制定提供参考依据。