ALTERNATIVE NARRATIVES FOR ARMS CONTROL

The efforts of President Barack Obama and his administration to restore the United States as a driving force of multilateral arms control and nonproliferation negotiations are commendable, yet the lack of progress on such issues over the last eight years has ensured that U.S. policy has not kept pace with changes in the geostrategic environment and the evolving security agenda. Meanwhile, an alternative agenda has been articulated by non-Western countries. This article focuses on the arms control perspectives of Non-Aligned Movement states and others that have begun to embrace the idea of “disarmament as humanitarian action.” It explores this idea in the context of recent initiatives and argues that if the Obama administration wants to make progress on its arms control and nonproliferation priorities, it should consider a multifaceted approach that incorporates this emerging alternative agenda.     

基于小样本数据的作战计划生成方法

针对部队实兵对抗实验数据生成和采集的投入高、难度大的实际,提出基于小样本数据生成作战计划的方法：首先,采用偏最小二乘回归分析法建立作战因素与作战结果间的多元非线性模型;其次,采用改进的遗传算法,在MATLAB平台编程实现了对模型的整数规划求解,并通过实例验证算法的有效性;最后,利用作战因素的重要性排序分析作战计划的调整流程。     

最低价中标情况下的施工管理研究

最低价中标法作为国际上通行的建筑工程招投标方法,随着我国建筑市场的 发展和工程量清单计价制度的推行,已经具备其实施的客观条件。针对目前实施最低价中 标法工程施工阶段存在的问题,提出结合工程量清单计价从合同管理、保证金制度、工程保 险、质量管理等方面提出了解决的思路。     

关于小高炮对空连发射击精度指标与命中概率的探讨

就小高炮连发射击所给出脱靶量的两种战技指标进行了分析。并给出了连发射击命中概率的计算方法,且建立了预测模型。计算结果表明,建模与思想对对空射击有一定的参考价值。     

小型侦察无人机任务能力及拒止距离分析

随着无人机技术的快速发展,无人机已在民用、军事领域得到广泛应用.尤其是具有"低慢小"特征的小型无人机,使用方便灵活,成本相对低廉,可用于执行侦察监视、自杀袭击等任务,对日常防空安全、重要目标防护构成严重威胁.分析研究了小型无人机主要威胁样式,重点分析了小型侦察无人机载荷任务能力,提出对该类目标拒止距离需求,可为相关拦截...     

小子样条件下巡航导弹的命中精度评估方法

针对巡航导弹定型试验发数少、验前试验信息源多的特点,提出小子样条件下,通过可信性检验分别得到每个验前信息源的可信度,在导弹落点偏差分布为正态-逆伽马分布的假设下,获得评估的验前分布参数,选择基于可信度的加权方法对多源验前信息进行融合,采用Bayes估计方法得到命中精度。最后结合实例进行仿真,说明了该方法较传统的Bayes方法更稳健,很适合巡航导弹命中精度的评估。     

Technical note: Worst‐case performance of power‐of‐two policies for serial inventory systems with incremental quantity discounts

This study presents power‐of‐two policies for a serial inventory system with constant demand rate and incremental quantity discounts at the most upstream stage. It is shown that an optimal solution is nested and follows a zero‐inventory ordering policy. To prove the effectiveness of power‐of‐two policies, a lower bound on the optimal cost is obtained. A policy that has a cost within 6% of the lower bound is developed for a fixed base planning period. For a variable base planning period, a 98% effective policy is provided. An extension is included for a system with price dependent holding costs. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Volume discount decisions: Wealth maximization or EOQ approach?

A recent paper finds that when volume discounts are available, in some cases, reliance on the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model can induce purchasers to make wealth reducing decisions, and the Present Value (PV) approach should be preferred. While this finding is theoretically correct, the magnitudes of wealth reductions suggested by the paper's numerical examples seem to be questionable. Furthermore, the paper also finds that, in some other cases, a purchaser using the EOQ approach realizes a net increase in current wealth compared to a purchaser using the PV approach. Logic suggests that such a finding cannot be correct, since by its very definition, it is the PV approach that seeks to maximize the current wealth. We offer an alternative frame of comparison and a modified model to show that, under the paper's assumptions, the EOQ approach can never realize a net increase in current wealth compared to the current wealth generated by the PV approach. On the other hand, we also show that when typical values of the relevant parameters prevail, the additional costs imposed by the EOQ approach are not significant. Finally, we suggest that insofar as the PV approach requires greater administrative costs to implement, it may even be counterproductive to the goal of wealth maximization. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 377–389, 1998     

旋转永磁式机械天线的研究与实现

为实现低频电磁发信系统的小型化和低功耗,对基于旋转永磁体的机械天线,即利用永磁体机械旋转直接激励电磁波的新型低频电磁发信技术进行了理论研究与工程实践。提出基于钕铁硼永磁体和永磁同步电机的旋转永磁式机械天线技术方案及其信息加载方法,构建基于电-机械-电磁能量转换的系统模型,对其辐射效率和辐射功率进行初步分析,研究旋转永磁体在不同无限均匀介质中产生时变磁场的分布与衰减特性,研制了原理样机,并对其近区磁场和2FSK信号的加载特性进行了实验测试,验证了该方案的可行性和有效性。     

基于复杂网络理论的C2组织网络拓扑结构研究

根据C 2组织结构的特点,基于复杂网络理论和网络中心战思想,将C 2组织中的各作战单元、指控节点等作为节点,它们之间的信息流动作为边,构建C 2组织的网络拓扑结构。经过仿真分析,推出其内部具有无标度性、小世界性等复杂网络特性,这对于进一步将复杂网络理论应用于C 2组织的研究提供了理论依据并具有积极的意义。