South Asia's Missile Expansion

ABSTRACT

Over the past decade, contrary to declarations that they are pursuing “minimum” deterrence, India and Pakistan have considerably expanded their missile forces. India has developed eleven types of missiles while Pakistan has fielded nine. These missile forces have a mixed impact on deterrence stability. Both states' medium-range missiles strengthen their countervalue deterrent capabilities against the other, though India's China-specific missiles still have limitations. India's and Pakistan's short-range missiles and first-generation naval systems raise concerns about nuclear ambiguity, command and control, and escalation across the nuclear threshold, ultimately undermining deterrence stability on the subcontinent.     

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON LOW NUCLEAR NUMBERS

President Barack Obama has outlined a course toward lower numbers of US nuclear weapons. Much attention has been paid to the US-Russian context, where deterrence is believed to be basically stable and conditions ripe for gradually reducing arsenals on both sides. But considerably less attention has been paid to the possible implications of lower nuclear numbers on other regions of the world and the reactions of both adversaries and US allies. If nuclear reductions are to be stabilizing and beneficial to security, reassurance and strengthened nonproliferation efforts in various regions need to accompany nuclear cuts. But the specific problems and remedies across regions vary. This article summarizes the results of a multi-author study. It concludes that regions with US allies and formal extended deterrence pledges may pose more vexing problems than those areas of the world without such close allies or commitments.     

NUCLEAR STABILITY AT LOW NUMBERS

Chinese writings on the workings of nuclear stability, deterrence, and coercion are thin and politicized. Nevertheless, it is possible to glean, from direct and inferential evidence, rather pessimistic conclusions regarding Chinese views of nuclear stability at low numbers. While China has been living with low numbers in its own arsenal for decades, today it views missile defense and advanced conventional weapons as the primary threat to nuclear stability. More generally, China views nuclear stability as wedded to political amity. Because none of these would be directly addressed through further US and Russian arsenal reductions, China is unlikely to view such reductions as particularly stabilizing. While there is little in Chinese writing to suggest lower US and Russian numbers would encourage a “race to parity,” there are grounds to worry about China becoming more assertive as it gains confidence in Beijing's own increasingly secure second-strike forces.     

一类具有免疫时滞和病毒颗粒的HIV模型的动力学性态分析

考虑感染细胞的治愈和未感染细胞吸收作用的影响,研究一类具有免疫时滞和病毒颗粒的HIV模型,通过分析特征方程研究平衡点的局部稳定性,利用规范型理论和中心流行定理得到确定Hopl分支方向和分支周期解稳定性的计算公式,并通过构造Lyapunov泛函,讨论未感染平衡点的全局稳定性．     

反舰导弹大空域变轨的三维扩展比例导引律

为了使大空域变轨弹道的理论研究更符合反舰导弹的实际运动状态,建立了反舰导弹追踪虚拟目标的三维空间相对运动模型。同时,为了保证反舰导弹大空域变轨弹道的四段弹道平滑过渡,在导引律设计时同时考虑了脱靶量要求和末端落角要求。应用Lyapunov稳定性理论求解出满足要求的三维扩展比例导引律,对大空域变轨弹道的四段弹道设计了相应的过载控制指令,并进行了仿真研究。仿真结果表明:所提出的三维扩展比例导引律可以使反舰导弹顺利完成大空域飞行任务,而且保证了反舰导弹的所有性能指标均满足要求。     

大学生领悟社会支持与应对方式的相关研究

对某校1000名本科生进行问卷调查,考察大学生应对方式特点和社会支持水平之间的关系。方法:领悟社会支持量表(PSSS)、《简易应对方式问卷》(SCSQ)作为测查工具,测查了1000名大学生。结果:①生源变量在领悟社会支持和应对方式各维度上差异没有统计学意义。②领悟社会支持和应对方式在性别、年级、专业变量上有显著差异,男性多运用积极应对方式;大二学生在消极应对方式上得分最高;大四学生他人支持和积极应对方式上得分最高。③领悟社会支持和积极应对正相关,领悟社会支持得分越高,越倾向采取积极的应对方式。     

无人飞行器静稳定性问题的研究

从飞行器静稳定性的定义出发,介绍了3种不同的静稳定性,即纵向静稳定性、横向静稳定性和航向静稳定性。分别讨论了3种静稳定性的判据,进一步分析了影响静稳定性的部件和因素,说明了采用放宽静稳定性对无人飞行器产生的影响。     

一般自我效能感与社会支持对中学生主观幸福感的影响

目的：探讨一般自我效能感、社会支持对中学生主观幸福感的影响,为提高中学生的主观幸福感提供理论依据。方法：采用一般自我效能感（GSES）、领悟社会支持（PASS）问卷和总体幸福感（PGWB）量表,对新疆地区部分中学的1000名中学生进行调查。结果：①不同性别中学生在一般自我效能感、其它支持和社会总支持存在显著差异（P〈0.05）;不同家庭类型中学生在领悟社会支持及各因子、忧郁或愉快的心境以及对情感和行为的控制方面存在显著差异（P〈0.05）。②总体幸福感中的对健康的担心这一因子与社会支持和各因子（其他支持除外）及一般自我效能感呈显著负相关（P〈0.05）,而其他各因子与社会支持各因子及自我效能感呈显著正相关（P〈0.05）。③一般自我效能感、家庭支持和朋友支持对中学生主观幸福感具有显著地预测作用（P〈0.05）。结论：中学生的性别、家庭类型在一般自我效能感、社会支持和主观幸福感方面表现出差异性,且中学生的一般自我效能感、社会支持与中学生主观幸福感之间存在相互关系。     

具有变时滞的离散型随机BAM神经网络的稳定性

研究一类具有变时滞的离散型随机BAM神经网络。通过构造Lyapunov泛函以及线性矩阵不等式（LMI）,得出了离散系统全局渐近稳定的充分条件。     

一类具免疫时滞的HIV模型的动力学性态分析

研究一类具有时滞和免疫反应的HIV模型。首先通过分析特征方程研究了平衡点的局部稳定性以及Hopf分支的存在性。然后利用规范型理论和中心流行理论得到了确定Hopf分支方向和分支周期解稳定性的计算公式。接着讨论了无病平衡点的全局稳定性。最后通过数值模拟说明了所得理论结果。