军队审计机构运用社会审计力量的SWOT分析与策略

习近平主席为军队审计工作提出了"全覆盖""问题导向"等新要求.在现有审计力量难以满足审计需求的情况下,通过购买社会审计服务、接受社会审计组织劳务派遣等方式组织社会审计力量参与军队审计任务,将是提高军队审计机构工作效率、实现创新发展的有效途径.本文通过SWOT分析法对军队审计机构运用社会审计力量的优势、劣势、机遇和威胁等...     

一种结合弹道规律的模糊交互式多模型算法

针对交互式多模型算法中转移概率矩阵与实际运动不匹配而影响跟踪精度的问题,通过分析某型导弹的典型弹道,将弹道规律融合到模型概率转移矩阵中,然后将转移概率模糊化处理,提出了一种基于弹道规律的模糊交互式多模型算法,然后以导弹蛇形运动转至比例导引的机动过程为例进行了仿真验证,比较了典型交互式多模型算法和模糊交互式多模型算法的跟踪性能。仿真结果表明:该算法可显著提高导弹机动段的跟踪精度。     

Political transition to democracy

This paper argues that the crisis of electoral democracy in Zimbabwe and Cote d'Ivoire is a result of underlying structural and institutional deficiencies within national and regional multinational institutions. It assesses the extent to which they have been ‘enablers’ or ‘spoilers’ of electoral-based transitions to democracy. Yet it avoids generalisations of the security sector's involvement in political transitions. In terms of structure, the paper is divided into four sections. Section one will briefly discuss the theoretical perspectives of the election-democracy trajectory. It argues that although elections are a major variable for democracy, unless the ‘ecology of elections’ is conducive, elections may not be an instrument of transition to democracy. The second section analyses the militarisation of politics and the role of the security sector in aiding or stalling democratisation. Section three will assess the role of regional organisations such as the Southern African Development Community, Economic Community of West African States and the African Union in electoral-based political transitions in Africa. Lastly, the paper will discuss how the security sector and multinational African institutions can aid political transitions to democracy in troubled African countries.     

哈萨克族、汉族、维吾尔族大学生对不同群体的态度差异

本研究希望基于一种平等的、双向度的视角,分别从不同民族的视角探讨本民族成员与其他民族成员的社会距离。采用修订的社会距离问卷对54名哈萨克族、195名汉族和234名维吾尔族大学生进行调查。结果表明,不论是汉族,还是哈萨克族和维吾尔族都表现出内群体偏好,愿意与本民族成员发生亲密的社会交往;哈萨克族与维吾尔族间的社会交往要显著亲密于哈萨克族与回族、蒙古族和藏族间的社会交往。     

浅析下岗职工的社会资本降低问题

下岗职工的社会关系 (以下简称“关系”)是下岗职工实现个人行动策略的关键因素 ,也是下岗职工寻求”第二职业”或其它新资源的关键因素 ,本文重点研究国有企业下岗职工所拥有的作为社会载体的社会网络弱化以及在弱化的社会网络中获取资源的能力低弱而带来的社会资本的降低     

一般自我效能感与社会支持对中学生主观幸福感的影响

目的：探讨一般自我效能感、社会支持对中学生主观幸福感的影响,为提高中学生的主观幸福感提供理论依据。方法：采用一般自我效能感（GSES）、领悟社会支持（PASS）问卷和总体幸福感（PGWB）量表,对新疆地区部分中学的1000名中学生进行调查。结果：①不同性别中学生在一般自我效能感、其它支持和社会总支持存在显著差异（P〈0.05）;不同家庭类型中学生在领悟社会支持及各因子、忧郁或愉快的心境以及对情感和行为的控制方面存在显著差异（P〈0.05）。②总体幸福感中的对健康的担心这一因子与社会支持和各因子（其他支持除外）及一般自我效能感呈显著负相关（P〈0.05）,而其他各因子与社会支持各因子及自我效能感呈显著正相关（P〈0.05）。③一般自我效能感、家庭支持和朋友支持对中学生主观幸福感具有显著地预测作用（P〈0.05）。结论：中学生的性别、家庭类型在一般自我效能感、社会支持和主观幸福感方面表现出差异性,且中学生的一般自我效能感、社会支持与中学生主观幸福感之间存在相互关系。     

South Africa's threat environment: a guide for the National Planning Commission

Abstract

The mandate of South Africa's recently appointed National Planning Commission includes addressing ‘defence and security matters’. This article seeks to outline the central elements of the threat environment facing South Africa in the foreseeable future. It is argued that South Africa faces no meaningful existential threat from conventional military forces but that its security forces will need to be prepared to address possible raids and attacks by conventional military forces both on home soil and on vital interests beyond the nation's borders. Other threats highlighted include the threats posed by potential insurgencies, by terrorism, and by crime, social unrest and banditry. Also addressed is the danger of so-called hybrid threats, in which two or more of the single threat types outlined here are combined. Finally, the article challenges the National Planning Commission to rethink South Africa's policy on peace operations in the light of the need to ensure the safety and security of the nation's citizenry.     

THE 3rd PAN-AFRICAN PARLIAMENT SESSION

Frustrated by decades of authoritarian rule, political repression, economic mismanagement, poverty, soaring unemployment and other related injustices, the youth in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya rose up against the state, while Algeria and Morocco narrowly escaped the events of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’. This quest for political reform is an indication of a great collective shift that has the potential to reverberate throughout the African continent. However, to what extent can the youth succeed in bringing about the much-desired transition to democracy? This article focuses on the North African youth uprising and the quest for political reform in Africa. It examines the core issues of the youth uprising and the challenges to the attainment of political reform. A youth uprising can lead to genuine political reform if the major challenges in building new democratic forms of governance which can address economic disparity, protection of human rights, justice and security, can be overcome.     

领悟社会支持与高中生学习投入的关系:自尊和未来教育规划的链式中介作用

目的:探究领悟社会支持对学习投入的影响,以及自尊和未来教育规划的链式中介效应。方法:采用领悟社会支持量表、自尊量表、未来教育规划问卷和学习投入量表,对446名高中生进行施测。结果:①各变量两两之间均存在显著地正相关(r=0.32~0.50,p<0.001);②领悟社会支持能正向预测高中生学习投入;③在领悟社会支持对高中生学习投入的预测中存在三条路径:一是自尊的中介作用;二是未来教育规划的中介作用;三是自尊和未来教育规划的链式中介作用,效果值分别为:14.81%,27.78%和16.67%。结论:领悟社会支持不仅直接影响高中生学习投入,还通过自尊和未来教育规划影响高中生学习投入。     

未就业随军配偶社会保险问题研究

未就业随军配偶的社会保险存在着险种少、标准低、接续难等问题,使未就业随军配偶的社会保险权益受到损害。分析当前未就业随军配偶社会保险存在的问题,提出随军未就业配偶社会保险问题的解决路径。