基于n-宗派的C2组织协作性量化分析

C2组织的协作性是目前信息化战争研究中的一个热点。利用"社会网络分析方法",对C2组织的指挥控制关系网络模型进行"n-宗派"分析,可以有效地揭示组织的子结构特征以及定量地研究组织的协作性。分析了指挥控制关系网络模型n-宗派中"n"的现实意义,设计了"宗派协作指数"和"组织协作指数"的计算方法和公式。结合示例,以2-宗派为例说明了C2组织协作性量化分析的步骤和过程。研究表明,基于n-宗派的C2组织协作性量化分析具有可操作性和现实意义。     

农村文化建设对农村社会稳定的双向效应

社会稳定是改革发展的重要前提,而保持农村稳定是全社会稳定的关键。维护农村社会稳定根本途径在于文化建设,但文化建设对农村社会稳定有双向效应。文化建设对农村社会稳定的正面效应有减贫效应、社会结构优化效应、社会控制效应、社会心理优化效应和社会化效应,而文化建设的受益不均衡效应、虚化效应、过度社会动员效应及其信息失稳效应等又不利于农村社会稳定。因此,要充分重视农村文化建设的积极作用,也要清醒认识其负面效应,并为维护农村社会稳定考虑扬正抑负的对策。     

Shifting power,preventive logic,and the response of the target: Germany,Russia, and the First World War

If a declining state has incentives for preventive war, the rising state should have incentives to delay a confrontation until it is stronger. We develop the theoretical paradox and examine the July 1914 crisis. Why did Russia, rising relative to Germany, not adopt a buying-time strategy? We argue that although most Russian leaders hoped to avoid a confrontation, they feared that the failure to support Serbia would lead to a loss of Russian credibility and a significant setback to Russia’s position in the Balkans, one that could not easily be reversed, even with Russia’s expected increase in relative military power.     

kittel型反铁电相变的自由能

根据kittel型反铁电相变对称性的变化 ,选择轴矢量 R作为序参量是合适的。由Landau理论 ,相变温度附近的自由能F就可以写成 R幂级数展开的形式。令 F R=0 ,可得到关于序参量的方程 ,从而获得相变温度与自由能的关系     

基于SNA参数的网络舆论系统状态差分分析

近年来,互联网在我国快速发展,网络舆论起着越来越重要的作用,对国家安全和社会稳定产生了重大的冲击和影响。针对网络舆论系统的状态进行研究,借助SNA方法,提出了可作为序参量的一些特征参数。在此基础上,设计了基于时间序列的SNA参数差分算法,实现对网络舆论系统的状态进行观测与分析。同时,对一个真实网络舆论进行实验仿真,验证了这种方法。     

Witchcraft and African development

Impressive investment and growth figures and commercial write-ups enthusing about ‘Africa rising up’, ‘the continent of the future’, and so on, obscure the poverty, illiteracy, poor health and other hardships afflicting the vast majority of African people. Why has massive so-called development and technical ‘aid’ not created the expected dynamic, autonomous economic progress? A blind eye is delicately being turned to the decisive role of people – more specifically, the cultural element. Notwithstanding good intentions, outsiders seeking to promote development assume that black Africans think and act like they only need more education, training and finance in order to ‘catch up’. Outsiders easily forget that since time immemorial, Africans have developed and cherished worldviews and cultures of their own. While these are by no means immutable and do adapt to changing needs and outside influences, Africans refuse to cast off overnight the heritage that makes them the people they are. This paper examines the impact of witchcraft as an integral feature of traditional culture on African existence, notably community life, religion, politics, the law, and economic practice. It stresses the significance of traditional society's powerful egalitarian impulses as well as its profound conviction that all things – goods, wealth, well-being and life force – are in a strictly limited supply that cannot be increased, but can only be redistributed by force or through magical manipulation. While modern life gradually weakens the influence of witchcraft beliefs – in Europe these flourished well into the 18th century – the exasperation associated with Africa's headlong urbanisation actually bolsters these beliefs.     

以军民融合式发展思想为指导完善文职人员制度

分析了非现役文职人员制度实行的时代背景、目前存在的主要问题以及解决对策,指出文职人员制度是我军顺应整体社会转型而实行的重大改革,是军民融合式发展思想的重要体现,完善的政策和军地双方的协调沟通,直接关系到这一改革的成败。     

Place–time correlation of robbery incidents in metropolitan Lagos: a Mantel index analysis

This article investigates the correlation of space and time in the clustering of robbery incidents in metropolitan Lagos. Analysis was carried out on 781 selected robbery incidents in 2013. Using the Mantel index to correlate place and time intervals for pairs of robbery incidents, the results show that robberies are respectively concentrated in residential areas, transport nodes and public places, peaking at midnight during weekdays. The results further show that this concentration is most likely greater than what would be expected on the basis of a chance distribution. The study concludes that various factors may exist which cause clusters of robberies to occur in these places at these times.     

Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria and the vicious cycle of internal insecurity

The phenomenon of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria has generated many security concerns. This article explores the implications of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria for internal security. The article, which relies on a study of secondary sources of data, reveals that the insurgency has spawned varied implications such as an international image crisis, huge economic losses, a health and humanitarian crisis, a huge burden on the security apparatuses, arms proliferation, and endangered national unity. It holds that the insurgency is essentially interlinked with a breakdown of the social contract manifested in opportunistic behavior, economic stagnation, and lack of functioning institutional mechanisms for policy conduct and conflict resolution. Owing to the security menace posed by the insurgency, the article recommends that the root causes of the insurgency should be tackled rather than relying on reactive measures that cannot guarantee enduring peace and internal security.     

对社会单位实施消防监督分类管理的探索与实践

在分析对社会单位实施消防监督分类管理必要性的基础上,结合工作实践,就如何对社会单位实施消防监督分类管理进行探讨,以期提高消防监督效能,推进消防工作社会化。