A standardized scan statistic for detecting spatial clusters with estimated parameters

The scan statistic based on likelihood ratios (LRs) have been widely discussed for detecting spatial clusters. When developing the scan statistic, it uses the maximum likelihood estimates of the incidence rates inside and outside candidate clusters to substitute the true values in the LR statistic. However, the parameter estimation has a significant impact on the sensitivity of the scan statistic, which favors the detection of clusters in areas with large population sizes. By presenting the effects of parameter estimation on Kulldorff's scan statistic, we suggest a standardized scan statistic for spatial cluster detection. Compared to the traditional scan statistic, the standardized scan statistic can account for the varying mean and variance of the LR statistic due to inhomogeneous background population sizes. Extensive simulations have been performed to compare the power of the two cluster detection methods with known or/and estimated parameters. The simulation results show that the standardization can help alleviate the effects of parameter estimation and improve the detection of localized clusters. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

军民融合制度变迁分析

军民融合制度变迁属于强制性的制度变迁,必须由国家来主导。从国家的角度对军民融合制度变迁进行成本收益分析,认为政府是推动制度变迁的最主要力量;通过构建国家效用函数,对国家推行军民融合制度变迁动力产生过程进行探析,认为国家效用的降低是推行制度变迁的诱因。     

排列熵算法的应用与发展

重点阐述了排列熵算法的基本原理,总结归纳了该算法在医学、生物和机械等领域的国内外研究和应用现状,最后展望了排列熵算法的未来发展趋势。研究表明：排列熵算法能够有效放大时间序列的微弱变化,且计算简单、实时性高,已在信号突变检测方面显示出良好的应用前景。     

A drive to regime change through nonviolent economic warfare: The post-Mugabe era, 2017–2019

ABSTRACT

This article examines efforts made by the Movement for Democratic Change Alliance to bring about regime change through nonviolent economic warfare including its subsequent failure. The 30 July 2018 harmonised elections in Zimbabwe led to a victory by Emmerson Mnangagwa but it was disputed by Nelson Chamisa. Since August 2018, the political opposition led by Chamisa sought to make the country ungovernable by waging a nonviolent economic war nicknamed Kuzvidira jecha (pouring sand) against the Mnangagwa administration. This was punctuated by price hikes, fluctuation of the local currency, artificial food stuff price hikes and fuel shortages which caused serious challenges for most Zimbabweans. This was primarily intended to bring about regime change via public unrest against the Mnangagwa regime. On the contrary, the anticipated public uproar failed to foster regime change in Zimbabwe despite widespread adverse socio-economic effects. This led to the nonviolent participants resorting to violent tactics instead of adhering to nonviolence. Consequently, it was the failure to adhere to nonviolent principles by opposition advocates which forced the Mnangagwa regime to deploy its own instruments of violence in an effort to protect lives and property.