考虑扰动引力影响的弹道助推段误差传播解析计算方法

针对地球扰动引力对弹道导弹惯性导航精度影响日益突出这一问题,研究了沿弹道扰动引力的多项式拟合方法,并基于线性系统理论和弹道摄动思想推导了用于求解扰动引力对弹道助推段状态影响的完整解析表达式。同时考虑扰动引力影响与导弹视加速度之间的耦合特性,将扰动引力引起的视加速度偏差视为扰动引力影响的附加补偿项,并进行迭代修正。仿真结果表明:扰动引力拟合残差小于3×10~(-7)m/s~2,考虑耦合项修正的弹道误差传播解析模型计算残差减小为原有方法的1/3,计算时间仅为直接采用弹道积分求差法的1/10。     

A Dangerous Method: How Mali Lost Control of the North,and Learned to Stop Worrying

Abstract

This article analyses changes and failures in the northern Mali system of security governance, taking into account the period running from the declaration of the Malian Third Republic (1992) to the present. Considering northern Mali as an area of limited statehood, the article develops a comparative diachronic analysis, distinguishing between three phases, namely Militiarisation (1992–2002), Fragmentation (2002–2012) and Multiplication (2013–ongoing). For every phase the focus is on (1) the mechanisms of coordination among actors, (2) the distribution of coercive capacities and ruling power and (3) the forms of authority. Unintended consequences and collective problems are highlighted, in order to understand the current situation of insecurity in the area.     

Recognizing Fragmented Authority: Towards a post-Westphalian Security Order in Iraq

Abstract

The rollback of Daesh’s territorial control during 2017 has (re-)established an area of limited statehood in large parts of Iraq that may endure for many years. The government of Iraq projects its authority into a large geographical and political space that it shares with a multitude of other state, non-state and hybrid actors, competing and collaborating to achieve advantageous security and political outcomes. This paper examines the heterarchy of actors in post-Daesh Iraq to develop a typology and start a critical discussion about post-Westphalian alternatives for security governance in Iraq during the coming period of reconstruction and reconciliation.     

临近空间拦截弹最优弹道跟踪制导律

针对拦截临近空间高超声速飞行器的弹道跟踪过程,基于线性二次型调节器理论和高斯伪谱法设计一种跟踪制导律。为了对标称弹道进行精确跟踪,考虑线性二次型跟踪问题,应用最优控制理论推导最优解的充要条件,得到带时变增益的线性状态反馈控制量的表达式;基于高斯伪谱法,在离散的勒让德-高斯点上利用标称弹道数据计算差分矩阵和系数矩阵,求得状态扰动反馈控制律。仿真结果表明,与基于求解矩阵黎卡提方程的方法相比,该方法选取较少的节点即可获得高精度的反馈控制量,且运算效率大幅提高,满足在线实施要求。     

Hizbullah’s Shaping Lebanon Statehood

Abstract

Since the end of the civil war in 1990, the Lebanese second Republic has experienced a dual security governance in the southern borderland region. Up to the Syrian military withdrawal in 2005, the territorial and functional ‘areas of limited statehood’ between the State and Hizbullah worked as a cooperation. After the Syrian withdrawal, various forms of cooperation appeared, raising the theoretical interest for the ‘mediated state’ framework. It is conceptualizing the cooperation between the state and the non-state actor as an interdependency – with case study ranging from the marking of the Blue Line to the struggle against the jihadists groups.     

Security gradient and national defense – the optimal choice between a draft army and a professional army

The earlier work on the optimal design of the national security has focused on the opportunity cost of the draft in terms of foregone human capital formation. The current paper introduces the national security into the welfare analysis missing from the earlier work. This creates a trade-off between the private goods and the security as a public good in the social cost–benefit analysis. There are three major results. First, and arising from the intergenerational interaction, it is optimal to introduce a pay to the young generation when in duty even by resorting to a distortive tax. Second, when optimizing the size of the army, the optimal choice between the draft army and the professional army depends on the risk class of the country. A security gradient arises. Third, the choice is linked to the size and the quality of the reserve generated by the two approaches.     

The Organization of the Defense Support System: An Economic Geography Perspective

In the context of restricted budgetary resources and the growing cost of maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) activities, a major issue for modern armed forces is to sustain defense platforms. A possible method consists of realizing economies of scale through the concentration of maintenance activities, which involves the spatial reorganization of existing industrial sites dedicated to MRO. This article provides a formalized framework to discuss the optimal organization for the MRO of defense platforms in space. The public planner organizes the maintenance of defense platforms with only two possible spatial configurations. In the dispersed configuration, two industrial production units in charge of the maintenance optimally cover space, whereas in the concentrated configuration, a unique industrial unit covers space. Focusing on the tipping point between the two configurations, the balance of forces between agglomeration and dispersion in defense support activities is described and discussed. On the one hand, economies of scale provide an opportunity to optimize defense support costs, favoring concentration in a unique industrial unit. On the other hand, space causes dispersion to reduce both transport costs and operational social costs. This trade-off illustrates a general principle in spatial economics with an application to MRO production in the French case.     

Combating nuclear smuggling? Exploring drivers and challenges to detecting nuclear and radiological materials at maritime facilities

International concern over nuclear terrorism has grown during the past few decades. This has driven a broad spectrum of efforts to strengthen nuclear security globally, including the widespread adoption of radiation-detection technology for border monitoring. Detection systems are now deployed at strategic locations for the purported purpose of detecting and deterring the smuggling of nuclear and radioactive materials. However, despite considerable investment in this area, few studies have examined how these programs are implemented or the operational challenges they face on a day-to-day basis. This article seeks to address this with a focus on radiation-detection efforts at maritime facilities. Utilizing practitioner interviews and a survey, this article identifies the factors that influence the planning and use of these systems in this fast-moving environment. The results clearly demonstrate that the implementation of these systems varies significantly across different national and organizational contexts, resulting in a fragmented global nuclear-detection architecture, which arguably undermines efforts to detect trafficked nuclear-threat materials. Greater consideration should therefore be given to developing international standards and guidance, designing and adopting tools to support key parts of the alarm assessment process, and broader sharing of good practice.     

The Damoclean sword of offensive cyber: Policy uncertainty and collective insecurity

Cyberspace is a new domain of operation, with its own characteristics. Cyber weapons differ qualitatively from kinetic ones: They generate effects by non-kinetic means through information, technology, and networks. Their properties, opportunities, and constraints are comparable to the qualitative difference between conventional and nuclear weapons. New weapons and their target sets in a new domain raise a series of unresolved policy challenges at the domestic, bilateral, and international levels about deterrence, attribution, and response. They also introduce new risks: uncertainty about unintended consequences, expectations of efficacy, and uncertainty about both the target’s and the international community’s response. Cyber operations offer considerable benefits for states to achieve strategic objectives both covertly and overtly. However, without a strategic framework to contain and possibly deter their use, make state and non-state behavior more predictable in the absence of reciprocal norms, and limit their impact, an environment where states face persistent attacks that nonetheless fall below the threshold of armed conflict presents a policy dilemma that reinforces collective insecurity.     

Sweden and the issue of NATO membership: exploring a public opinion paradox

The past decade has seen substantial shifts in Swedish security policy and major change in the domestic debate about NATO. For the first time, all of the right-of-centre “alliance parties” are calling for a full NATO membership, and popular support for NATO has increased. Yet public opinion contains ambiguities and paradoxes that complicate the picture. At the same time as support for NATO has increased, the public is overwhelmingly for continued military non-alignment. Drawing on previous research, longitudinal data from national surveys, and other sources on defence and security issues, this article aims to increase our understanding of the development and change in Swedish public opinion on NATO. A key argument is that Erving Goffman’s theatre metaphor, combined with neo-institutional decoupling theory, to a large degree can help understand the public opinion paradox.