On the effectiveness of top‐down strategy for forecasting autoregressive demands

We investigate the relative effectiveness of top‐down versus bottom‐up strategies for forecasting the demand of an item that belongs to a product family. The demand for each item in the family is assumed to follow a first‐order univariate autoregressive process. Under the top‐down strategy, the aggregate demand is forecasted by using the historical data of the family demand. The demand forecast for the items is then derived by proportional allocation of the aggregate forecast. Under the bottom‐up strategy, the demand forecast for each item is directly obtained by using the historical demand data of the particular item. In both strategies, the forecasting technique used is exponential smoothing. We analytically evaluate the condition under which one forecasting strategy is preferred over the other when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand time series for all the items is identical. We show that when the lag‐1 autocorrelation is smaller than or equal to 1/3, the maximum difference in the performance of the two forecasting strategies is only 1%. However, if the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand for at least one of the items is greater than 1/3, then the bottom‐up strategy consistently outperforms the top‐down strategy, irrespective of the items' proportion in the family and the coefficient of correlation between the item demands. A simulation study reveals that the analytical findings hold even when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand processes is not identical. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

点邻域尺度差异描述的点云配准算法

针对传统特征描述符计算复杂度高、配准精度低的问题,提出一种基于不同尺度点邻域特征信息差异的点云配准算法.在特征描述符方面,对关键点选取不同尺度的邻域空间,计算各尺度空间之间的特征值归一化向量差异和法向量夹角,建立点邻域尺度差异描述符,特征描述符计算简单且节省时间.在关键点选取方面,根据曲面形状指数设计了一种寻找关键点的...     

迎风格式在接触间断的数值耗散及其诱导误差

在不同流场参数条件下对三种迎风格式在接触间断中的数值耗散问题进行了数值实验,并对数值耗散产生的机理进行了分析。数值计算结果和理论分析表明,矢通量分裂格式计算接触间断问题时,若流场静止或流场内存在亚声速区域,密度耗散的产生会诱导出以特征速度运动的数值扰动误差,该误差对数值耗散的大小无影响,但会影响流场的速度及压力参数分布,从而改变流场的结构。在二维问题中,诱导误差相互干扰会产生大量的复杂小尺度结构,给流场结构分析带来困难。同时,在密度参数线性分布的流场中,若空间离散格式重构的对象为对流通量,使用矢通量分裂格式计算流场会产生数值误差,使计算精度难以到达二阶。