空间谱估计在干涉测角中的应用

提出了一种利用空间谱估计对干涉测角系统进行解算的方法,该方法在多重信号分类(M USIC)算法的基础上,对协方差矩阵的估计、特征值分解、谱峰搜索等计算量较大的步骤进行了改进,提高了运算速度.并根据入射角连续的特点,提出了空域跟踪搜索的算法,进一步减小了计算量,同时提高了解模糊的正确率.     

机动作战地空导弹载波相位差分定位模型研究

地空导弹部队在防空作战中,导弹火力单元要按上级的命令适时机动,需要对所在位置进行精确定位并及时上报上级单位,以便尽快组成新的雷达网继续参加战斗。根据GPS测距和差分GPS定位原理,利用载波相位差分设备把采集的载波相位发送给用户站进行求差解算坐标,得到机动作战导弹火力单元的位置坐标。根据载波相位差分定位GPS载波相位差分接收机技术成熟,成本不高,适合机动作战导弹部队应用。通过编制相应的模型软件,以及加入通信接口,便可用于导弹火力单元雷达站址的快速定位。     

A theory of war finance

This paper analyses the financial and war‐spending policies of a state that faces a conflict in which defeat would result in the loss of sovereign power and in which the material consequences, conditional on avoiding defeat, are stochastic. The analysis takes explicit account of the historical experiences of lenders, who face debt repudiation if the state to whom they have lent is defeated and who also face partial default if the material consequences of the war are unfavorable for the debtor state, even if it avoids defeat. In this analysis, the state uses war debt to smooth expected consumption intertemporally in response to temporary war spending, and the state also uses contingent debt servicing to insure realized consumption against the risk associated with the material consequences of the war. An important innovation in the analysis is to treat the equilibrium amount of war spending, the state's resulting probability of avoiding defeat, as well as the equilibrium amount of borrowing as a set of endogenous variables to be determined simultaneously.     

Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation

Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013     

基于栅格分层的逐栅格汇流算法并行化研究

分布式水文模型中的逐栅格汇流算法计算量大,需要借助并行计算以满足大流域长历时模拟的要求。针对目前鲜有对基于隐式有限差分的逐栅格汇流算法进行并行计算研究的情况,基于栅格分层的思想提出一种适用于共享内存并行计算环境的逐栅格汇流并行算法。该算法首先根据流向进行栅格分层,使同一层中栅格的计算相互独立,然后将同一层中栅格的计算任务分配到多个计算单元并行计算。采用C++编程语言与OpenMP并行编程库实现了该算法,并选择河北省清水河流域为实验区,在不同数据规模(30m、90m、270m分辨率)、不同核数(2～20个)以及不同栅格分层方法的情况下对算法性能进行了测试。实验结果表明本文提出的并行算法具有较好的加速比和并行效率,且并行效率随数据规模的增大而增大。栅格分层方法对算法并行性能有明显影响,从上到下的分层方法比从下到上的方法具有更高的并行效率。     

爆炸成型弹丸贯穿靶板靶后破片空间分布模型

深空撞击载荷对探测小天体内部物质成分和结构特性具有重要意义,因此,在考虑爆炸成型弹丸(explosively formed projectile, EFP)可变截面的特性和区分靶后破片来源的基础上,建立了EFP贯穿靶板靶后破片空间分布模型。在靶板厚度30 mm至70 mm、EFP着靶速度1 650 m/s至1 860 m/s的条件下,该模型可以定量预测靶后破片云中各个破片的速度、质量、数量与空间位置的关系。结果表明,相对速度总是随相对空间位置的增加而呈线性增加,相对质量、相对数量总是随相对空间位置的增加而呈幂函数增加。     

基于备件需求预测的两步法理论

在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。     

Quantification of projection angle in fragment generator warhead

Tactical Ballistic Missile (TBM) class target neutralization by the fragment spray of a Fragment Generator Warhead (FGW) calls for quantification of fragment projection angle scatter to finalize the end game engagement logic. For conventional axi-symmetric warhead, dispersion is assumed to be normal with a standard deviation of 3⁰. However, such information is not available in case of FGW. Hence, a set of experiments are conducted to determine the dispersion of fragments. The experiments are conducted with a specific configuration of FGW in an identical arena to quantify the scatter and then verified its applicability to other configurations having a range of L/D and C/M ratios, and contoured fragmenting discs. From the experimental study, it is concluded that the scatter in projection angle follows normal distribution with a standard deviation of 0.75° at Chi-square significance level of 0.01(χ²_0.99).     

营房管理可视化系统设计方案

利用地理信息技术、数据库技术以及办公自动化技术提出了营房可视化管理系统设计方案,实现了空间数据的上传下载以及与营地实力系统数据的导入导出;并根据面向对象技术实现了对空间图层类、信息窗体类和属性数据维护类的封装,为改变传统的营房管理模式,实现营房的信息化、可视化管理作了一定的探讨。     

一类随机差分方程的解序列的最优停止规则

设报酬序列{x_(?),(?),n≥0}满足随机差分方程x_(n+1)=x_n+a_n+b_nε_(n+1)(ε_1,ε_2,…为白噪声序列)。本文讨论了用有限情形{x_n,0≤n≤N}的Snell包逼近无限情形{x_n,n≥0)的Snell包的条件,得到了x_n=E(x_n|(?))((?)=σ{ε_0,ε_1,…,ε_n},ε_0=0)的Snell包r_n的分解形式和最优停时存在的条件。最后讨论了最优停止规则的迭代计算法,并得出了迭代过程在有限步停止的充分条件。