FACILITATING NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT: Verified Declarations of Fissile Material Stocks and Production

Unprecedented interest in seeking progress toward nuclear disarmament exists today; even some nuclear weapon states are looking for new ways to strengthen this process. National declarations of fissile material holdings—highly enriched uranium and plutonium—could play an important role in supporting this effort, facilitating not only transparency but also the irreversibility of the process. This article discusses what kind of content such declarations could have in order to be meaningful and effective, the sequence of data on fissile material holdings that states might release, and some of the challenges to be expected in reconstructing historic fissile material production; it also summarizes current attitudes of weapon states toward making such declarations. Initial declarations can be valuable as confidence-building measures, but better and more background data are necessary if declarations are to serve as the groundwork for deeper cuts in the nuclear arsenals. A robust verification approach would ultimately require inspectors to have access to fissile material production and storage sites. The methods and tools of nuclear forensic analysis—in this context also dubbed nuclear archaeology—would be a key element of this process. This article discusses the capabilities and limitations of potential approaches to verifying declarations of historic production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium; it also identifies and discusses opportunities for further research and development.     

STRATEGY FOR A NEW NUCLEAR AGE

Current U.S. nuclear weapons strategy, force structure, and doctrine contribute to the threat of nuclear terrorism in several ways. First, the U.S. nuclear stockpile presents opportunities for nuclear terrorists to seize the materials they need. Second, U.S. nuclear forces remain a key justification for Russia's maintenance of similar nuclear forces that are less well protected. Third, America's continued embrace of nuclear weapons encourages and legitimizes other states to seek nuclear weapons that they will have difficulty securing from terrorists. The national security interests of the United States would be better served by a strategy to shrink the global footprint of nuclear weapons and provide the highest possible levels of security for the most minimal possible deterrent forces. Given the inability to secure nuclear weapons and materials perfectly or to eliminate terrorism in the foreseeable future, reducing the global inventory of nuclear weapons and materials is the most reliable way to reduce the chances of nuclear terrorism.     

Technical and proliferation‐related aspects of the dismantlement of Russian Alfa‐Class nuclear submarines

When does a state become a “nuclear weapon state”? How we choose to answer this question has significant implications for proliferation assessment, analysis, and policy. Traditionally, the standard demarcation line has been a state's first nuclear test, but in recent years analysts have increasingly focused instead on the accumulation of a significant quantity (SQ) of fissile material. The article argues that although the test/no-test indicator clearly has problems, its replacement by the SQ/no-SQ indicator would be highly counterproductive. The article instead proposes supplementing the traditional test/no-test indicator with a theory-driven approach that focuses on the incentives and disincentives to test.     

瞬态高强加热条件下含湿多孔介质传热传质模型研究

提出了瞬态高强加热下含湿多孔介质传热传质的新模型,模型包括的水分种类齐全、水分迁移机制全面,假设条件相对较少,考虑了非Fourier传热效应和非Fick传质效应。新模型通过具体的分区分析得到简化并更加实用。     

超磁致伸缩材料特性及其工程应用综述

超磁致伸缩材料是实现电磁能-机械能二者能量和信息高效转换的功能材料。介绍超磁致伸缩材料的特性及器件优异的性能,较全面综述超磁致伸缩材料在各个领域的应用与开发情况,分析开发超磁致伸缩器件需要解决的若干关键技术问题,展望超磁致伸缩材料广阔的应用和发展前景。     

双材料界面裂纹的加料有限元方法

为解决求解双材料界面裂纹应力强度因子等断裂参量的困难,在常规单元位移模式中引入界面裂纹尖端位移场,构建加料界面裂纹单元和过渡单元的位移模式,推出了加料有限元方程。采用不同的加料单元和过渡单元配置方案,建立了方形板中心界面裂纹和矩形板单边斜界面裂纹的加料有限元模型,求解有限元方程直接得到应力强度因子,与解析解的结果对比,表明该方法具有较高的精度,可方便地推广应用于界面裂纹的计算分析中。     

聚氨酯的合成及水声性能

用甲苯-2,4-二异氰酸酯(2,4-TDI)、聚丙二醇(PPG)等原料合成了聚氨酯预聚体,以3,3-二氯-4,4-二氨基二苯甲烷(MOCA)、三羟甲基丙烷(TMP)为扩链剂合成了聚氨酯,在脉冲声管中测试了合成试样的声压反射系数和吸声系数,研究了不同扩链剂及不同含量的2,6-二叔丁基-4-甲基苯酚(BHT)对其水下声学性能的影响。测试结果表明:TDI-PPG-MOCA合成型聚氨酯是一种良好的水下透声材料,TDI-PPG-TMP合成型聚氨酯是一种良好的水下吸声材料;BHT的加入对TDI-PPG-TMP合成型聚氨酯的水下吸声性能有显著提高,因此合理地设计实验工艺参数,可以得到水下声学性能更佳的聚氨酯。     

应急器材柔性采购定价建模与求解

由于当前应急器材储备依然存在“多储”或“少储”风险,为提高储备效益,以企业经济效益与军队采购成本为优化目标,提出了应急器材柔性采购策略。通过建立企业储备策略与军队采购定价最优化模型,求解得到了在不同战争爆发概率及器材现货市场价格区间等外部环境因素下的军队最佳柔性定价及对应的企业最优储备策略,并通过实例分析验证了得出的决策结论。结果表明,最优策略的实施将有利于军队与企业共担应急器材数量储备风险。     

论单个军人队列动作的分类施训

单个军人队列动作是最基本的军事技能。依据《队列条令》,结合武警部队任务特点,从单个军人队列动作的运用实际出发,组训时分类施训,对提高武警部队的队列训练质量,必将起到巨大地推进作用。     

难加工材料3种优化指标的应用特性

采用刀具耐用度、切削里程、材料去除总量对同一组难加工材料进行正交试验,结果表明:采用刀具耐用度作为评价指标进行优化时,其结果往往是对应于最小的切削用量,高的刀具耐用度并不对应于高的切削能力和切削效率,优化结果存在较大的局限性;切削里程和材料去除总量在实际生产中分别代表已加工表面的形成量和总切削量,可以较好地反映切削参数与应用效果之间的关系,作为评价指标时,两者较刀具耐用度的评价更为有效。不同指标的评价结果不同,应用时需根据实际情况进行有针对性的选择。