数据融合中的Dempster-Shafer证据理论

虽然 D- S方法已广泛地应用于各种数据融合系统中 ,但在实际应用中依然存在着许多困难。总结了数据融合应用中的 Dempster- Shafer证据理论研究概况 ,从四个方面阐述和对比分析了一些有代表性的研究成果 ;同时为下一步的研究提出了新的课题和思路     

The vanguard's dilemma: understanding and exploiting insurgent strategies

The purpose of this paper is to provide a better conceptualization of insurgent strategies. Specifically, I shall examine Che Guevara's ‘Foco’ theory of insurgency, as it is one of the most theoretically popular and most pervasive strategies of insurgency currently practiced throughout the world. After briefly examining the origins, objectives, and theoretical strengths of the Foco theory (also known as the Vanguard Theory), I will argue that Guevara's theory suffers from an internal tension that I term the ‘Vanguard's Dilemma’. The significance of this dilemma creates a tension within the Vanguard Theory that can be fatal for insurgents if properly exploited by counterinsurgent operations. This paper will examine in detail this dilemma and show how it can be exploited. Given that several insurgent groups within Iraq and Afghanistan currently adhere to the Vanguard Theory of insurgency, a proper understanding of this insurgent strategy is an essential first step in the long road towards confronting and winning asymmetrical conflicts.     

At war with social theory: Instrumental and communicative action in US military doctrine during the War on Terror

As US counterinsurgency campaigns draw to a close, doctrine for asymmetric warfare written during the War on Terror has come under heavy criticism. While many have argued that this shift to ‘winning hearts and minds’ is evidence that the United States is taking humanitarianism and nation-building seriously, others argue that a wide gap exists between US counterinsurgency doctrine and the protection of civilians afflicted by conflict. In this article, I show that the latter is true by comparing theories of instrumental and communicative action to US doctrine for operational design, stability operations, and counterinsurgency. I argue that these texts treat the people as an object to be manipulated for the achievement of pre-determined self-interested strategic goals rather than members of a community that jointly designs operations to fulfill shared objectives. However, US doctrine does contain communicative elements that, if prioritized, would better support humanitarian and state-building objectives otherwise subordinated in the War on Terror.     

Comprehensive approaches,diverse coherences: the different levels of policy coherence in the Dutch 3D approach in Afghanistan

Since 2000, international organisations such as the UN, NATO and the EU, but also countries, have started to apply what has been called the comprehensive approach to crisis management. This article unpacks this comprehensive approach implemented by the Dutch in Uruzgan province, Afghanistan. It first borrows and expands a conceptual framework developed by De Coning and Friis. Subsequently, it maps the different sorts of coherence in the mission by applying the framework. It shows how in practice there was not one single comprehensive approach, but many different forms of interaction between a number of organisational units. Each interaction had its own distinct issues and its own level of coherence. The level of coherence differed depending on the level at which the interaction took place – strategic at headquarters level versus operational at field level – and at what point in the mission it happened – in most cases it moved towards more cohesion.     

室温下单电子晶体管3种临界尺寸的确定

为使单电子晶体管达到实际应用的地步,开展室温条件下相关研究成为必然。从正统理论出发,推导、计算出室温条件下单电子晶体管能否正常工作的库仑岛临界尺寸:存储器件为6.5nm,逻辑器件为1.5nm;本文还推导和计算出单电子晶体管室温下发生能量量子化效应的临界尺寸:4.7nm,并对这3种临界尺寸进行了验证和分析。另外,通过比较分析本文还得出了室温条件下,所有逻辑器件均必须考虑能量量子化效应,所有存储器件应尽量考虑能量量子化效应的结论。分析结果表明,库仑岛临界尺寸的确定对单电子晶体管的实际应用具有重要意义。     

基于区间灰关联的雷达辐射源识别新方法

在现代密集信号环境中,接收机测得的和辐射源数据库中的雷达特征参数具有不确定性,一般用区间值表示.针对区间类型的特征参数的雷达辐射源识别,提出了一种新的基于区间灰关联度的雷达辐射源融合识别方法.该方法首先运用区间灰关联度得到基本概率赋值,然后运用证据组合与决策实现目标识别.仿真结果表明,这种识别方法是有效的.     

多源验前信息下基于证据理论的ML-Ⅱ融合方法

在复杂新型产品的可靠性评估中,试验的样本量通常较小,而Bayes方法在小样本统计推断中比经典统计方法更为适用.针对可靠性工程中遇到的验前信息的多源性问题,给出了一种基于证据理论的ML-Ⅱ融合方法.在融合过程中考虑了信息源的可信性,减小了可信度低的信息源对评估结果的影响.以电子产品为例,算例实验表明了该方法在有“干扰信息源”存在的情况下的评估结果的有效性和合理性.     

基于改进证据理论的多传感器目标识别

由于证据理论融合冲突信息会得出不合理的结论,限制了其在目标识别中的应用.为解决这一问题,提出了一种改进融合方法.研究各证据与其他证据的联系,通过计算证据与其他证据均值的距离,求出此证据受其他证据的支持度.归一化支持度获得证据权值,加权平均原有证据后按Dempster规则融合,作出识别.针对空中目标识别算例,对比验证几种方法,结果显示:该方法能够融合冲突信息,在降低计算量的同时,加快收敛速度,提高了识别快速性和准确性.     

谈谈政治理论课的基地教学

当前,军队院校的政治理论课教学,以教员课堂讲授为主,重课堂理论教学、轻社会实践锻炼的现象比较严重。这种传统的教学模式不利于创新型人才培养和教育转型的需要。政治理论课必须向基地教学延伸。     

基于搜索论的远程反舰导弹搜捕概率建模方法

针对传统捕捉概率模型难以满足远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率建模计算的问题,提出利用搜索论进行导弹机动搜捕概率计算的建模方法。该方法根据目标机动规律建立其分布概率密度函数,并依据末制导雷达发现目标概率的"倒四次方律"及弹目相对运动轨迹,构建其探测函数,通过求取两者之积的积分实现搜捕概率计算。计算结果显示:若远程反舰导弹不采取机动搜捕策略,目标指示误差增加1km时搜捕概率降低0.47,目标速度增加10节时搜捕概率降低0.3,末制导雷达搜索半径减小50%时搜捕概率降低0.3;若采取平行搜捕策略,上述因素对其影响大幅下降。可见,该方法综合考虑了目标机动规律、传感器探测规律、导弹搜捕策略,可实现远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率的解算。